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NUKEWARS
BMD Focus: N. Korea's ICBM fails
by Martin Sieff
Washington, April 6, 2009


Image courtesy of Analytical Graphics, Inc.

North Korea finally made another effort to test an effective intercontinental ballistic missile Sunday, but according to the U.S. and South Korean governments, which were monitoring the launch, they failed again.

It was the first North Korean attempt to test-fire a Taepodong-2 ICBM in nearly three years. The earlier launch, on July 4, 2006, was to have been the capstone of an East Asian strategic fireworks space spectacular. No fewer than six much shorter-range ballistic missiles were successfully tested that same time.

There was a widespread expectation, as we have noted in these columns, that Sunday's test would be a successful one. North Korea's ally, Iran, successfully placed its own first communications satellite into orbit in February and, as we have repeatedly noted, ICBM capability is fungible. The same ICBM systems that can launch a satellite into Earth orbit are also capable of carrying a nuclear or thermonuclear weapon halfway around the world in about half an hour to obliterate any North American, Western European or Northeast Asian city.

The North Korean payload fell into the Pacific Ocean, along with the second-stage rocket, the Yonhap news agency quoted an anonymous South Korean government official as saying.

The U.S. Northern Command Web site described the launched rocket as "not a threat" to its territory. The last two stages of the rocket fell into the Pacific Ocean along with the payload, and the first stage fell into the East Sea, Northcom said. "No object entered orbit, and no debris fell on Japan," it said in a statement on its Web site.

The U.N. Security Council in New York called an emergency meeting Sunday to consider possible action against North Korea.

U.S. President Barack Obama, speaking during a visit to the Czech capital Prague on Sunday, said Pyongyang's attempted ICBM launch had the purpose of threatening countries with weapons of mass destruction.

"I call on North Korea to honor its commitment to abandon all nuclear-weapons programs, to abide by recognized norms of international relations, and to work to promote peace and stability in Northeast Asia," Obama said.

Ironically, the Czech government of Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek has just been toppled by parliamentary vote in significant part because Topolanek had agreed to allow a U.S. advanced array radar base to be built in Czech territory to guide U.S. anti-ballistic missiles fired from another base in neighboring Poland against any ICBMs that Iran may launch against the United States or Western Europe.

The leaders of China, Japan and South Korea joined Obama in calling for North Korea to abandon all nuclear weapons and to promote peace and stability in Northeast Asia.

In New York, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, the former foreign minister of South Korea, issued a statement saying the launch countered efforts to promote regional stability.

"Given the volatility in the region, as well as a stalemate in interaction among the concerned parties, such a launch is not conducive to efforts to promote dialogue, regional peace and stability," read the statement released by Ban's spokesman. "The Secretary-General urges (the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, or North Korea) to comply with relevant Security Council resolutions and all countries concerned to focus on ways to build confidence and restore dialogue, including the early resumption of the six-party talks."

China called for calm and expressed a hope the crisis could be resolved in a "peaceful way."

South Korea's government condemned the launch, calling it a "serious threat" to world peace, Yonhap reported.

However, the bottom line is that none of those statements indicated any practical action that might prevent North Korea from developing a very real ICBM capability in the next few years.

Former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Newt Gingrich made that point on "Fox News Sunday." Gingrich already appears to be positioning himself to seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2012. And he took an implied swipe at previous Republican President George W. Bush as well as at current President Obama when he noted that so far no Washington administration of either major party has proved able to rein in North Korea's WMD and ICBM programs, whether through threats, economic sanctions or soft-shoe diplomacy.

This kind of strategic impotence cannot go on forever without catastrophic consequences for the United States and its allies, Gingrich warned.

"One morning, just like 9/11, there's going to be a disaster, and people are going to look around and say, 'Gosh, why didn't anyone think of that?' Well, I'm telling you the time to think about it's before the disaster, not afterward," he said.

Gingrich criticized Obama for not approving pre-emptive military action to prevent North Korea from making its launch.

"He has some wonderful fantasy idea that we're going to have a great meeting next year," Gingrich said, referring to the president's plans to revive diplomatic negotiations with Pyongyang in the coming months. "I just think it's very dangerous to have a fantasy foreign policy."

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NUKEWARS
Swords and Shields: Iran's ICBM threat
Washington (UPI) April 3, 2009
The Islamic Republic of Iran produces several short-range rockets domestically, including the Shahab-1 and the Shahab-2. They are spin-offs respectively of the Soviet-built Scud-B and Scud-C. It also produces a 1,300 kilometer-range -- 780 miles -- single-stage liquid-fueled ballistic missile Shahab-3 that is a spin-off of North Korea's relatively reliable No-dong intermediate-range ballistic ... read more


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