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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Analysis: Germany's new economics minister
by Stefan Nicola
Berlin (UPI) Feb 10, 2009


Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg.

Germany's economics minister resigned just as the country is experiencing one of the worst recessions in decades; his successor is a relatively inexperienced politician who previously focused on foreign policy.

His hair is accurately combed back, his manners are polished and his speech is eloquent. Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, Germany's new minister for economics and technology, undoubtedly has charisma. But will he be fit to steer the world's fourth-largest economy out of a crisis that experts say is unprecedented since the end of World War II?

This question is adding to the woes of the conservatives under German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has come under fire for her government's hesitant response to the economic crisis.

It all started this past weekend, when Michael Glos, 64, shocked the political scene with his resignation. Glos said he was too old for another Cabinet, arguing that his conservative Christian Social Union party needed an injection of fresh blood.

Observers say the real reason for the resignation is Glos' increased isolation in the Cabinet; rumors have it that Merkel, from the conservative Christian Democratic Union, the CSU's sister party, has not sided too often with the minister from Bavaria.

Bavaria's state Premier Horst Seehofer (in close cooperation with Merkel) identified as Glos' successor 37-year-old zu Guttenberg, who on Tuesday became the country's youngest-ever economics minister.

Government officials were eager to praise the swift transition.

Guttenberg has a "broad range of international experience, and I think this will help him when it comes to fighting the international financial crisis," Merkel said Monday. "I'm convinced he will do an excellent job, and he therefore has my full confidence and my full support."

Not many share that confidence.

The well-spoken Guttenberg is a rising star in German politics, but he has made a name for himself mainly as a foreign policy expert, and his resume lacks economic expertise and experience.

"I have not seen any structure under Michael Glos, no economic target being pursued, no real activity or eagerness to sort things out, and I don't see that now with Mr. Guttenberg," Renate Kuenast, the head of the opposition Green Party, Tuesday told German news channel n-tv. "He is only appointed because he is an ally of Horst Seehofer, and because everyone else in the CSU has been bullied away. But in this country, people are worried about their jobs."

Germany, Europe's largest economy, is experiencing possibly its worst recession since World War II, with some 400,000 jobs lost in January alone. The export-heavy German economy will shrink by 2.5 percent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Critics are questioning whether Guttenberg is fit to deal with this crisis. After all, economic expertise was not a major factor in his nomination.

U.S. President Barack Obama surrounds himself with the best economic brains to lift the U.S. economy out of the crisis, but the German political system does not foresee such a step.

Because Glos was a CSU politician from northern Bavaria, the new minister had to be from that party and region as well.

But Seehofer promised that the new minister would do well.

His "good relations to the United States" could be very important in the current global economic crisis, Seehofer said Tuesday at a news conference in Berlin.

Guttenberg was also present, but he commented very little on the issues Germany's economy is facing. It's still unclear how he stands on increased state investments and influence in key sectors -- a topic he will have to deal with soon.

Bavarian car parts maker Schaeffler (66,000 employees) has nearly $13 billion worth of debt and needs state money to survive; in addition, Berlin likely will have to buy Hypo Real Estate to prevent the property lender from going under.

Guttenberg will now have to quickly read up on all these subjects.

"He won't get a period of grace, not in this situation we are in," Dirk Niebel, the secretary-general of the pro-business Free Democrats, told n-tv.

.


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