Front-line combat units of China's People's Liberation Army air force will have at least 112 J-10 fighter jets by the end of the year, an analysis of current deployments and in-progress production reveals.

There are multiple indications that the 2nd Regiment of the No. 1 Division of the People's Liberation Army air force has received a full complement of the domestic-made, next-generation fighter jets run by the 4th J-10 -- J-10A -- Fighter Regiment.

Each such regiment normally is equipped with 28 fighters; 28 link-structured aircraft hangars have been constructed at Chifeng Air Base, where the regiment is based. The exterior structure of these hangars is very similar to those at the Changxing Air Base run by the No. 3 Division, and the runway at Chifeng seems to have undergone renovation.

The PLA air force currently has three other J-10 regiments. They are the 132nd Regiment under the No. 44 Division, based at Luliang in southern Yunnan province, the 8th Regiment under No. 3 Division, based at Changxing in the east coast province of Zhejiang, and the 5th Regiment under the No. 2 Division, based at Guilin in the southeast province of Guangxi, which borders Vietnam.

An educated guess puts the number of J-10A fighter jets that China has already manufactured at 120. Within this year, China is expected to receive a new batch of 50 Russian-made AL31FN engines, bringing the total number of these imported engines to 304.

China has been importing engines at a ratio of two for every one completed fighter jet, presumably for backup. This means the PLA air force already has enough engines to provide aircraft for a 5th J-10 Fighter Regiment. It can be concluded that the fighters currently under manufacture are for this fifth regiment, due to be completed in 2009.

The J-10 fighter deployment within the PLA air force basically has followed the same pattern as that of the earlier Russian Sukhoi Su-27 fighters and China's domestic version, the J-11. At least one J-10 regiment is first established in the air force division of each major military region, so that these air force units can become familiar with the operation of third-generation fighters. This practice is also intended to achieve balanced development of each military region.

The regiments that have received J-10 fighters all have had experience using J-11 fighters -- for instance, the No. 3, No. 2 and No. 1 Divisions. The only exception is the No. 44 Division, which was the first one to receive J-10 fighters.

This may be because the division's 132nd Regiment, stationed at Luliang, is far from the Taiwan Strait and therefore it would have been easier to conceal the aircrafts' deployment there. Moreover, Luliang is geographically close to Vietnam and India. India is quite familiar with Russian Sukhoi fighters, and thus it makes sense to deploy J-10A fighters in this region first.

It is significant that the No. 1 Division in north China is among the first bases to receive a complement of J-10 fighters.

Strengthening military power in Shandong
Chinese military planners have been giving a lot of attention to strengthening the air power component of their No.1 Division in North China.

The No. 1 Division was among the earliest military formations in China to receive a complement of domestically produced J-10 fighters. This division obviously has been given priority attention; it was the first to receive indigenous J-11 and J-11B fighters, and the third air force division to receive Russian-supplied Sukhoi Su-27SK/J-11 fighters earlier.

The No. 1 division is responsible for keeping an eye on the evolving situation on the Korean Peninsula and the rapid equipment replacement in the Japanese air force. In the event of a confrontation with Taiwan, the No. 1 Division would have to monitor the movements of Japan's Air Self-Defense Force, in case it was to head south to support Taiwan.

Chifeng Air Base has undergone a full renovation and was in the process of upgrading throughout 2007. The air base is triangular in shape to make it easier for aircraft to take off. Most North Korean military airports are constructed in the same pattern. The majority of facilities at Chifeng are underground.

This base originally was intended to respond to surprise attacks by the Soviet Union or Mongolian air force units in the event of an attack on Inner Mongolia or Beijing. The No. 1 Division formerly was equipped with J-7E fighters, which were used mostly for training purposes. Now it is understood that the deployment of J-7E fighters at this division was part of preparations for the base to receive the J-10A fighters.

Considering that China is now preparing for a fifth J-10 Fighter Regiment, where is it likely to be deployed? The pattern of deployment of earlier fighter aircraft can give some clues.

After the No. 3, No. 2 and No. 1 Divisions received the earlier-version Sukhoi Su-27SK and J-11 fighters, and the 97th Regiment of the No. 33 Division received Sukhoi Su-27UBKs, the other divisions that received J-11 fighters included the Jining-based 57th Regiment of the No. 19 Division under the Jinan Military Region in the eastern province of Shandong; the Zhangjiakou-based 22nd Regiment of the No. 7 Division under the Beijing Military Region; the Yinchuan-based 18th Regiment of the No. 6 Division under the Lanzhou Military Region in central China; and the Xiangtang Air Base of the No. 14 Division under Nanjiang Military Region in southeast China.

Because the nearby No. 44 Division is already armed with J-10 fighters, it is unlikely that the No. 33 Division under the Chengdu Military would become the fifth unit to receive such aircraft. Judging from the pattern of deployment of J-11 fighters, the No. 6 Division based at Yinchuan in north-central China has not been a priority division either.

Therefore, the two remaining candidates are the No. 7 Division based in Zhangjiakou, near Beijing, and the No. 19 Division based at Jining in Shandong province. In an analytical report, "The Strength of Shandong," Kanwa Defense Review stressed that the Jinan Military has played an important role in China's new strategic posture. This analysis concludes that the fifth J-10 Fighter Regiment most likely will be listed under the No. 19 Division, and the No. 7 Division will follow suit. Of course, other possibilities cannot be fully excluded.

(Andrei Chang is editor in chief of Kanwa Defense Review Monthly, registered in Toronto.)