China's stockpile of intermediate-range ballistic missile nuclear warheads should by no means be ignored. The People's Liberation Army's strategy of keeping a balance between its nuclear and conventional capabilities, or focusing on nuclear capability, as a matter of fact refers to these IRBMs and some short-range ballistic missiles.

It can be generally believed that the implementation of this strategic principle means each IRBM can be potentially armed with one nuclear warhead. The upgraded DF-25 and DF-21M IRBMs are very likely armed with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles, aimed at deterrence of India, Japan and Guam.

At present, the DF-3 IRBM is still in service, and the deployment of the DF-21M has been accelerated. Meanwhile, China has also developed a new type of DF-25 IRBM, which is also called the DF-21C.

The main missile brigades armed with DF-21M IRBMs include the No. 808 and No. 816 brigades. Some say that the No. 806, No. 810, No. 816, No. 807 and No. 811 brigades are all armed with these missiles. It is generally believed that one IRBM brigade is equipped with 16 launchers, thus there are no less than 112 launchers within at least seven such IRBM brigades.

Naturally, the number of nuclear warheads in these IRBM brigades should also be equivalent so as to implement the PLA strategy of putting priority on nuclear systems.

The explosive yield of IRBM nuclear warheads falls into two types, the strategic nuclear warheads and campaign tactical nuclear warheads. The explosive yield of these IRBMs should be between 100,000 tons and 500,000 tons.

It is said that China's SRBM brigades have increased to nine, that is, the brigades numbered from 815 to 823. Each SRBM brigade controls 27 launchers. Of course the SRBMs directed at Taiwan are mostly armed with conventional warheads. In recent years, however, whenever cross-Strait relations experienced turbulence, Chinese military publications would boast of the effectiveness of their neutron bombs. This can be interpreted to mean that the nuclear deterrence against Taiwan and the United States is becoming integrated.

Calculating on the basis of nine SRBM brigades and 243 launch vehicles, the possibility cannot be excluded that a small number of neutron bombs have been deployed to deter Taiwan forces and the U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups.

The success of the H-6K bomber test flight and the deployment of the first-generation CH-55 cruise missile have laid the material foundation for China to establish three-dimensional nuclear strike capability. The previous version H-6 bomber armed with nuclear bombs only had symbolic deterrence. Each H-6K is armed with 6 CH-55 cruise missiles. It is not known how many H-6Ks will eventually be deployed, but it would require a whole brigade of the bombers to have effective air-based nuclear deterrence strength.

In other words, the number of air-based nuclear warheads would be at least around 60. Of course these warheads are new types and are intended to solve the problem of warhead minimization. In this regard, China has been experimenting for many years. In addition, the H-6 and even a small number of Q-5 attackers can all carry small nuclear bombs. These bombers have been under operational deployment since the China-Soviet Union standoff.

At present, China has no less than 20 air-launched nuclear weapons. The nuclear warheads fitted on the new cruise missiles belong to campaign tactical warheads with an explosive yield below 20,000 tons.

Generally speaking, the estimate of the West concerning China's nuclear warheads, including strategic warheads and campaign tactical warheads, over the years is 300 to 400. With the above ICBMs and long-range cruise missiles entering service, China's total nuclear warhead arsenal is expected to increase by two to three times in the immediate five to eight years, to approximately 600 to 900 pieces.

The 50 DF-31As, 60 JL-2s and 27 DF-5As can at least carry 411 nuclear warheads. The cruise missile warheads carried by H-6K bombers will also be at least 60, plus the warheads for 112 IRBMs and a few dozen SRBMs. The number of nuclear warheads fitted on these new missiles alone will reach 593.

The U.S. military has always been suspicious that China has made an imitation version of the 475-kt W88 MIRV, noting that from 1975 to the early 1990s there were as many as 85 Chinese scholars visiting the Los Alamos National Laboratory. The research and development of China's nuclear warheads are undertaken at the No. 9 Institute of Second Machinery Ministry -- currently the China Engineering Physics Research Institute, or the 839 Project located at Mianyang in the southwest province of Sichuan, and the China Institute of Atomic Energy, which was originally the Institute of Modern Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

With the above nuclear warhead expansion programs, China will have more nuclear warheads than the United Kingdom and France combined by around 2015, close to the scale of Russia's nuclear warhead stockpile.

(Andrei Chang is editor-in-chief of Kanwa Defense Review Monthly, registered in Toronto.)