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Analysis: Angola wrangles with rebels
by Carmen Gentile
Cabinda, Angola (UPI) Oct 14, 2008


For the first time ever, Angolan oil output in June exceeded that of Nigeria at 1.87 million barrels per day, knocking the West African country out of the continent's top spot for production, according to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Angola's army is claiming victory over a separatist rebel group in the petroleum-rich province of Cabinda, where increased unrest has threatened oil output in recent months.

Military officials said earlier this week that the situation in Cabinda is "much better" because of "increased stability and control of the border."

"Some insurgents had entered Cabinda and made problems (in the province), but the situation is better," said Angolan Army Commander Francisco Furtado.

Angola, one of Africa's top oil producers, has ramped up security in Cabinda in an effort to protect oil interests in a region responsible for half of the country's petroleum output.

The South African country that endured three decades of civil war that ended in 2002 has been keen to maintain production steady while the continent's other major producer, Nigeria, struggles to fight a continuing armed militant movement in its main oil region, the Niger Delta.

For the first time ever, Angolan oil output in June exceeded that of Nigeria at 1.87 million barrels per day, knocking the West African country out of the continent's top spot for production, according to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Output later surpassed the 2 million bpd mark, though it has since slid to 1.95 million bpd because of difficulties at an offshore oil field near Cabinda.

Though Angola's emergence as a regional oil contender is undeniable, some experts warned against just yet anointing it Africa's new petroleum titan.

"Angola is certainly a big upcoming producer," Africa oil expert John Ghazvinian, author of "Untapped: The Scramble for Africa's Oil," told United Press International.

"Although monthly (production) figures can fluctuate," he added, noting that the return to even partial capacity of a few facilities in the delta would return Nigeria to the top spot among petroleum producers in Africa.

"Angola and Nigeria are clearly the two titans of the sub-Saharan oil world," Ghazvinian said.

The oil author did note that while oil production in the delta and at offshore platforms has been interrupted numerous times since the emergence of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta three years ago, not to mention decades prior by the armed group's predecessors, Angola's petroleum sector has remained relatively free from violent disruptions.

That's not to say Angola hasn't had its own share of difficulties with armed groups vying for its country's oil wealth.

Cabinda province, home to more than half of Angola's oil, has been the scene of violence blamed on the separatist group known as the Liberation of the Cabinda Enclave, or FLEC.

Many Cabindan separatists and members of FLEC who fled the province have returned and remain discontented with the Angolan government for not using enough of the country's oil revenue toward development.

Despite last year's peace deal between the government and those Cabindans seeking a separate state, chronic discontent persists among secessionists, prompting the Angolan government to keep up to 30,000 troops in the tiny province.

In March, three Angolan soldiers were killed in attacks blamed on FLEC. The military has since clamped down in the region in hopes of thwarting future attacks.

"Luanda (Angola's capital) will act to ensure that FLEC does not present an obstacle to the government's goals of becoming a major oil-producing state and using its wealth to become the geopolitical hegemon in south-central Africa," read a recent report by Stratfor Strategic Forecasting.

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