"Investing in Prevention" notes that in 2003 the world saw 14 wars, 21 severe crises and a further 48 crisis situations unfold around the world. This, it says, "is not likely to have been an anomaly."

It argues that as the risk of instability is likely to increase in future, and as rebuilding failed or conflict ridden states is expensive, time-consuming, and in half the cases fails within five years, investing in preventing instability is a far preferable course of action.

"The international community cannot afford - in humanitarian and financial terms - to lurch from crisis to crisis," Owen Pengelly of the Prime Minister's Strategy Unit told United Press International. "It is possible to combat instability more effectively by aligning policy under a new strategic approach."

The report, published Thursday, has been presented to British government departments for consideration.

Instability has a significant impact on security, trade and prosperity, terrorism, energy security and organized crime, and as such will harm international interests, it states.

Pointing to Afghanistan, the reports details how unstable countries play a key role in enabling international terrorist organizations such as al-Qaida to operate. Poverty and social inequality make such states an ideal recruiting ground, while national terrorist and insurgent groups can join forces with international Islamic terrorists.

Ungoverned territory provides a haven for leaders, and a base where recruits can be trained and integrated, it says. Weapons can be researched and developed, while arms and explosives training can be carried out.

A lack of financial checks means that funds can be obtained by corrupt methods and misused, while a normalized atmosphere of violence "places terrorist activities in the context of conventional conflict," it continues.

The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is also far more likely in states in unstable regions and under threat from neighbors, the report states, as leaders seek WMDs as deterrents. In some cases WMDs can be cheaper than conventional warfare, and are seen as a "status symbol" by autocratic leaders.

In such states WMD technology is likely to be leaked to organized criminals and terrorists, it warns, due to their presence in the area, poor governance, corruption and lack of territorial control.

Organized crime is also fuelled by instability as floods of "would-be emigrants" turn to crime networks to smuggle them across borders, the report says. Limited opportunity for farmers to export profitable crops often encourages them to turn to illegal crops, it adds.

Energy security is another grave concern at present, it says, as recent real or perceived instability in oil producing regions have contributed substantially to oil price volatility.

Countries facing stability challenges held 60 percent of the world's oil reserves in 2003, according to figures from British Petroleum, and the proportion of oil and gas originating from or transited through unstable regions is predicted to rise over the next decade, it says.

In 2015 a small to moderate one-year shock in oil prices (10 to 20 percent) could cost the British economy up to $9 billion, the Department of Trade and Industry has estimated.

In order to combat such risks, the report recommends a series of measures, including the development of an international diagnostic framework to identify "the causes and dynamics" of instability in a country or region.

A comprehensive and strategic package of development, security and political engagement should be adopted by the international community to tackle instability, it continues.

Stemming from this, the international community should develop a set of priority initiatives for the next five years, it states.

International systems for prioritizing resources, developing strategies for individual countries and regions, and for effective implementation should also be strengthened, it says.

International governance systems will need substantial reforms in order to deliver this agenda, the report adds, backing recommendations made in the United Nations' High-Level Panel Report, to be discussed and implemented in the coming months.

In addition, the report calls for a stronger sy stem of international collaboration, based on the International Panel on Climate Change, to assess instability and the effectiveness of efforts to tackle it.

However, the report says, because prevention will not always be successful, peace support and intervention capacity must be increased. Peacekeeping forces such as those under the auspices of the United Nations are at present greatly over-stretched, it continues, and military and financial capabilities must be expanded.

The report supports the United Nations' High-Level Panel's call for increased international responsibility and cooperation in the interests of collective security. External factors must also be addressed - for example, the spread of HIV/AIDS and the impact of climate change, which, it says, are "key drivers of future instability."

If the world wishes to see democratization and poverty reduction, the report urges, stability must be addressed as the foundation of such changes.

"The international community cannot afford to lurch from crisis to crisis," it says. "In an interdependent world instability affects us all."

All rights reserved. � 2005 United Press International. Sections of the information displayed on this page (dispatches, photographs, logos) are protected by intellectual property rights owned by United Press International. As a consequence, you may not copy, reproduce, modify, transmit, publish, display or in any way commercially exploit any of the content of this section without the prior written consent of United Press International.

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