How Many Satellites Are Enough

SPACEMART

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a Futron Industry Report
Bethesda - Mar 01, 2004
The satellite industry has experienced many profound changes over the last decade: the expansion of the Direct-To-Home television market, the rise and fall of the low Earth orbit telecommunications systems, and the development of the Internet as a source of demand, to name just a few.

Throughout all these changes, the heart of the industry has been the satellite itself. All the industry sectors (satellite services, launch services, ground equipment, and satellite manufacturing) are critical for the industry to maintain its viability and competitiveness. However, the satellite is the lifeblood of the industry, and the number of satellite orders has become a key metric in determining the health and future prospects of the industry.

For these reasons, Futron spends a significant amount of resources tracking and forecasting the demand for satellites. Every year since 1996, Futron has performed a forecast of demand for satellite services, i.e., bandwidth. Occasionally, depending on the requirements of our customers, we translate the demand for services into demand for actual satellites and launches. This White Paper presents our recently-completed forecast of the demand for GEO commercial communications satellites (C, Ku, and Ka Bands only) from 2004 to 2012.

Many people ask us about the accuracy of our forecasts. We believe the value of forecasting is in the insight it provides into market dynamics. A forecast will never eliminate all of the uncertainty associated with future events. It is a quantification of how future events are expected to unfold, which enables better-informed decisions.

However, accuracy is a legitimate concern for any forecaster. Thus, we went back to our year 2000 satellite forecast and compared it to actual numbers of satellites launched. The results are displayed below, showing that the average number of satellites forecast by Futron was within 7% of the actual number launched.

SPACEMART

SES Global Makes Strategic Investment In Orbcomm

Luxembourg - Feb 25, 2004
SES Global S.A., the world's premier satellite operator, has announced that it had acquired a 9% ownership stake in Orbcomm Inc., a US-based provider of global satellite data services to industrial, military and commercial clients.

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