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Russia - Recasting The G-8

an intersting idea
by Peter Lavelle
Moscow (UPI) Jun 07, 2004
With a number of Western politicians and policy-makers lobbying to have Russia excluded from the world's most exclusive club called the Group of Eight, this year's gathering presents the Kremlin with an opportunity of not only becoming a major player in the G-8, but also strengthen the G-8's global importance.

Every time the G-8 meets for its annual gathering, some Western politicians and commentators question Russia's membership. The G-8, after all, is the international club of world's richest democratic countries. Russia is potentially very rich due to its natural resource base, but at present its gross national product is small, hardly comparable to other group member countries. For many, Russia is not particularly democratic either. Vladimir Putin is often viewed as bent on returning to some kind of authoritarian rule. However, these objections may not really matter. Putin has a lot offer the G-8 -- but always for something in return.

There is no doubt the on-going conflict in Iraq will be on top of this year's G-8 agenda. After George W. Bush's quick trek through Europe just prior to summit, it should be assumed that the American administration has made a catch-up effort to find a modicum of international consensus on Iraq's future. Russia has sent signals that it will support to the new United Nations Security Council resolution concerning how Iraq will be ruled once legal sovereignty is retuned later this month. For its support, Putin wants more cooperation on the continuing turmoil in Chechnya. The U.S. wants stability in Iraq; Putin wants Western help to stabilize Chechnya. Thus, concessions from both sides concerning Iraq and Chechnya.

Just as important and related, is the future of international energy supplies -- particularly petroleum. With almost unprecedented high oil prices and equally high security risks surrounding the delivery of crude to Western markets, Putin's Russia has a lot to offer the G-8.

Putin can propose, with little worry of rejection, the goal of energy independence of the industrial world, headed by the G-8. Russia is already the world's largest oil producer and is determined to build more export pipelines bypassing conflict prone regions of the world. A G-8 energy alliance would also encourage foreign investment in Russia, as well as allow the Kremlin to complete its anti-oligarch re-ordering of Russia's oil sector without much Western outcry. Lastly, Russia's leading role in the world energy market would assure the Kremlin's coffers remain plush as Russia continues its economic reform efforts.

An issue that has divided Russia and the G-8, in particular the United States, is Russia's involvement in the building the $1 billion Busher nuclear reactor project in Iran. Russia has not been offered any meaningful incentives to distant itself from the project, but that can change. If the G-8 were to propose to Russia financial guarantees covering the cost of the project, in the form of investment in G-8 related energy projects for example, Russia could save face by simply demanding full Iranian compliance with strict IAEA inspection standards and walk away from the reactor project.

Russia can play a larger role in the current Israel-Palestinian standoff and help avert what surely will be another crisis with North Korea. With the United States seen as siding with Israel in the Middle East, Russia can offer, on behave of the G-8, its services as a fair and independent negotiation partner. In return for this role, the Kremlin would want a re-doubling of international efforts cutting off outside funding of terrorist operations in Chechnya.

North Korea is a problem for the entire world. It has never been fully determined what level of influence the Kremlin has with this closed and militant state. However, in partnership with the G-8, Russia is geographically positioned to work closely with the United States to create a security arrangement that would once and for all confront North Korea's nuclear saber rattling. Such an endeavor, a missile defense shield for example, would be expensive. Though, to assure save passage of Russian oil to Western markets, all members of the G-8 would benefit.

Another issue the G-8 will discuss in international security, in the most general sense. The G-8, since its inception, has traditionally concerned itself with international economic issues. Today, the state of the world economy and international security are not only linked, but also inseparable. Russia does not compare in economic strength to its peers in the group, though its interest in international security is not any different from other members. It is the importance of international security that makes Russia's membership not only a kind Western gesture toward the Kremlin, but a necessity.

The G-8 has an opportunity to re-invent itself. Instead of being seen as an exclusive rich man's club, it can become a very relevant annual gathering about international economic and security welfare. Russia can help make that happen.

(Peter Lavelle is an independent Moscow-based analyst and the author of the electronic newsletter on Russia "Untimely Thoughts" untimely-thoughts.com).

All rights reserved. Copyright 2004 by United Press International. Sections of the information displayed on this page (dispatches, photographs, logos) are protected by intellectual property rights owned by United Press International. As a consequence, you may not copy, reproduce, modify, transmit, publish, display or in any way commercially exploit any of the content of this section without the prior written consent of by United Press International.

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