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Analysis: Cold War Has Never Been Colder

Supporters of Ukrainian opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko demonstrate in front of the tax office building in Lviv, 25 November 2004 to protest against the results of the presidential elections. Ukraine split into two geographic camps 25 November as the nationalist West backed the pro-Western opposition leader as president while the Russian-speaking East supported the disputed victory of the Prime Minister. AFP photo by Janek Skarzynski.
Washington (UPI) Nov 25, 2004
And you thought the Cold War was over with the demise of communism? Think again. Relations between the West and its old nemesis, the Russian bear, have never been as frigid; at least not since the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989.

If East-West relations had somewhat thawed after the threat of communism dissipated, distrust never really melted away all together. Last Sunday's muddled elections in Ukraine have demonstrated just how precarious those relations really are, and how much is at stake - for both sides.

Ukraine's election commission Wednesday declared pro-Moscow Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych the winner of the hotly contested presidential runoff, despite widespread beliefs and accusations of voting irregularities by supporters of Victor Yushchenko, the pro-West opposition leader.

The Commission reported that Yanukovych took 49.46 percent of the vote, leaving opposition candidate Yushchenko with 46.61 of the ballots. Yushchenko's supporters accused the authorities of being guilty of massive fraud.

Braving inclement weather and snow, Yushchenko's supporters disputed the results, with close to a quarter of a million people taking to the streets of the capital, Kiev, amid cries of foul play that were heard from the Urals to the banks of the Potomac.

While Moscow and Russian President Vladimir Putin stood firmly behind their man Yanukovych, Brussels, Washington, Prague, Budapest and numerous other capitals made their stand clear, voicing their support for Yushchenko.

In Washington, Secretary of State Colin Powell quickly dismissed the election as marred by fraud. Powell urged Ukraine's leaders to respond immediately and warned hat there will be consequences for the United States' relationship with Ukraine.

Earlier, American officials had predicted a chilly period in relations with Ukraine in case of stolen elections, and said it cannot accept Sunday's poll result as legitimate.

It did not take long for that chill to set in.

What is at stake is far more than Ukraine's election, important as it may be to the people of that country, and to the democratic process of free elections. Indeed, what is at stake is Russia's last ditch to impose itself as a regional hegemony, having lost their super power status when they lost the Cold War.

Many in Russia never lived down the demise of the Soviet Union and still regard some of their old dominions - Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova - with nostalgia, and view them as part of the Greater Russia where they feel Moscow should still have a say.

Already, Moscow had a hard time accepting the fact that the three Baltic states - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - which were once part of the Soviet Union, passed over to the West, joining NATO and the European Union. And that former Warsaw Pact satellite states - Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and the Baltics - once their front lines of defense, have absconded and joined NATO.

In that spirit, Russia's President Putin has been eager to reclaim a little bit of the lost empire. Quarrels with the super-rich oligarchs and Russian oil barons, such as Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the head of the country's largest oil firm, Yukos, were no accident. It was, in fact, an attempt by Putin to re-assert control of the nation's finances. Likewise, Putin's support of Yanukovych in the Ukrainian election is an attempt to reclaim influence over geo-politics, and to see Moscow recover some of the grounds it lost to the West.

Putin is aware that this is Russia's last ditch at retaining some degree of influence over its former republics, before it loses them forever to the West.

Putin also realizes that the once-heavy-handed tactics employed by the Soviet Union to dominate their colonies can no longer be applied. Instead, today, a more judicious approach is required, such as ensuring that user-friendly leaders, who will remain faithful to Moscow, are empowered. As is the case with the backing of Yanukovych in Kiev.

Moscow is cognizant that a Yushchenko victory would push Ukraine unequivocally to the West. Yushchenko as president means Ukraine applying for admission into the European Union and quite possibly into NATO. For Russia, this would mean a monumental shift of borders with NATO forces suddenly all that much closer to home.

Ukraine is a vast expanse of plains stretching for 1,300 km (about 870 miles) from north to south, and has over the centuries acted as a buffer zone between the West and Russia. In fact, Ukraine means borderland.

The Soviet Union's former satellite states, who have not forgotten nearly 50 years of Soviet domination, are just as cognizant of Russia's intentions and lost no time voicing their concerns. Romania, Hungary, Poland and Bulgaria, all voiced support for opposition leader Victor Yushchenko.

Former Polish President Lech Walesa, who played a leading role in ousting communism from Poland, and who is a staunch Yushchenko supporter, has gone to Kiev to offer his help to resolve the crisis.

Jose Manuel Barroso, the new head of the European Commission, also warned Ukraine of consequences for its relations with the European Union, unless there was a serious and independent review of the election irregularities.

Meanwhile in Kiev, the pro-Western Yushchenko, rejected the fraudulent election results as the latest crime of the Ukrainian authorities. This comes amid a nationwide strike, intended to shut factories, shops and schools and paralyze Ukraine's major transportation arteries.

There is some fear that the planned stoppage could further divide the country with Yushchenko's supporters, coming mainly from the predominantly Ukrainian-speaking western and central regions, clashing with the Russian-speaking people from the eastern region bordering Russia.

The crisis in Ukraine could be the last showdown between Russia and the West, if democracy prevails and Yushchenko wins. The alternative will be a revival of the Cold War, with Moscow seeking to recapture some of the clout it lost.

All rights reserved. Copyright 2004 by United Press International. Sections of the information displayed on this page (dispatches, photographs, logos) are protected by intellectual property rights owned by United Press International. As a consequence, you may not copy, reproduce, modify, transmit, publish, display or in any way commercially exploit any of the content of this section without the prior written consent of by United Press International.

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US And Russia - What's Next?
Moscow (UPI) Oct 15, 2004
UPI's Moscow-based analyst Peter Lavelle put questions to experts Dale Herspring, Peter Rutland, Andrew C. Kuchins, Ira Straus, Gordon Hahn, Vlad Sobell and Janusz Bugajski, concerning the present state and future of U.S.-Russia relations.



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