As Summer Starts, Next El Nino Is Slow To Grow

EL NINO

Most recent National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sea- surface temperature data also clearly illustrate the warming of the western and central tropical Pacific and the persistence of the basin-wide Pacific Decadal Oscillation pattern. They are available at here.

Pasadena - June 27, 2002
The Pacific Ocean doesn't show signs of anything that looks like the whopper El Niďż˝o of 1997-1998, according to the latest information from the U.S.-French ocean-observing satellite Topex/Poseidon. The data do show that the mid-equatorial Pacific Ocean has slowly warmed by about 1 degree Celsius (1. 8 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal in the past few months. However, the Pacific continues to be dominated by the larger-than-El Niďż˝o/La Niďż˝a pattern called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which may discourage El Niďż˝o development.

"Except for some recent mid-Pacific warming, June 2002 looks very much like June 2001," said oceanographer Dr. William Patzert of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. "We're still in an El Niďż˝o holding pattern."

The ocean warming in the past month can be explained by a relaxation in the equatorial trade winds observed by NASA's Quick Scatterometer (QuikScat) satellite, which measures ocean wind speed and direction. These winds usually blow from the Americas towards Asia, helping push warm water eastward. "For the first two weeks of June, these winds were unusually weak," said Dr. Timothy Liu, QuikScat project scientist. "But by last week, they had returned to normal. If the weakening continued or intensified, we could have been expecting an El Niďż˝o to develop by early fall."

"For the past few winters the weather- and moisture-delivering jet stream has been steered north by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and other planetary patterns, resulting in a warm winter all across the United States and very dry conditions on the East and West coasts. A large enough El Niďż˝o might provide some relief for the drought-plagued west, southwest and southeast U.S., but it's wishful thinking so far," Patzert added.

The Topex/Poseidon data were taken during a 10-day collection cycle ending June 14, 2002. They show that there hasn't been any fundamental change in the ocean's large-scale patterns for the past three years. The near-equatorial ocean has been very quiet, although sea levels and sea-surface temperatures are near normal or slightly warmer throughout the far western and central tropical Pacific. Red areas are about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal; white areas show the sea-surface height is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal. This warmth contrasts with the Bering Sea, Gulf of Alaska and

U. S. West Coast, where lower-than-normal sea-surface levels (blue areas) and cool ocean temperatures continue. The blue areas are between 5 and 13 centimeters (2 and 5 inches) below normal, and the purple areas range from 14 to 18 centimeters (6 to 7 inches) below normal.

The Pacific has settled into a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation pattern for the past three years. This long-term ocean feature waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years. In its present phase, a warm horseshoe pattern of higher-than-normal sea-surface heights connects the north, west and southern Pacific, while a cool wedge of lower-than-normal sea-surface heights is in the eastern equatorial Pacific.

TERRADAILY

New Method Links Rainfall Patterns To Developing El Nino

Greenbelt - Jun 03, 2002
NASA researchers have created a tool that can predict El Nino events months before they occur, by linking variations in rainfall patterns over the Indian Ocean with developing El Ninos. Scott Curtis of the University of Maryland, Baltimore County's (UMBC) Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology (JCET), and Robert Adler of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., developed an El Nino Prediction Index (PI) formula that uses satellite-based rainfall data.

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