Mission Description: The PI proposes to reach the Spice Islands (Moluccas) by sailing westward across the Ocean Sea from the Canary Islands. An initial exploration mission employing three ships would be followed by large trading fleets, thus breaking the monopoly of the Organization of Spice Exporting Countries.

Scientific Evaluation: The science sub-panel found a disturbing pattern of slanted references, unreliable data, and significant omissions in the scientific background for the proposed mission:

Astronomy: The PI has selected from the literature the smallest published estimates of the Earth's size. A total circumference of ~25,000 miles has been well established since the classic work of Eratosthanes. This is far larger than the value assumed in the proposal, which seems arbitrarily chosen to make the proposed mission shorter.

Geography: The PI has selected the largest published estimates for the width of Eurasia from unreliable authors such as his fellow-countryman M. Polo. Again, this bias makes the proposed mission shorter than it will be in reality. The PI's supposed voyage of ~3000 miles will actually be on the order of 12,000 miles!

Meteorology: The proposal's optimistic estimates of average fleet speed were allegedly based on proprietary data on wind patterns in the Ocean Sea. Supposedly, these "trade winds" would allow ships to enjoy following winds on both outbound and inbound legs, by sailing at different latitudes. When the Review Panel met with Dr. Columbo in secret session, his "proprietary data" proved to consist of anecdotal stories from uneducated fishermen. Any future proposal should contain actual wind measurements published by qualified meteorologists in peer-reviewed journals.

Geophysics: The Earth model inherent in this proposal is highly asymmetric, with all continents concentrated in one hemisphere opposite a vast ocean devoid of major land masses. An Earth of this configuration would be highly unstable, and certainly could not serve as an immovable center for the Celestial Spheres. Experts consulted by the Panel all agreed that there must be unknown continents in the Ocean Sea to balance the known lands. These continents will probably form an impenetrable barrier to the proposed mission.

Technical Evaluation:
The technical sub-panel found numerous flaws in the proposed mission profile:

Life Support: Given the corrected estimate of mission duration provided by the science sub-panel, it is clear that ships built with existing technology could not carry adequate supplies of food, wine, and water to support even minimum human crews. The PI's plan to exploit hypothetical in-situ resources on such legendary islands as "Antilla" and "Hy-Brasil" is too speculative to serve as the basis of a manned mission.

Oceanaut Health: The open-sea voyages conducted by the Portugese have revealed a gradual but severe deterioration of their crews' health (called "scurvy" in intercepted documents) whose cause remains unknown. Until a solution is found to the this problem by means of research on the Interkingdomal Sea Station, any long-duration manned sea voyages would appear to be out of the question.

Communications: Existing carrier-pigeon and floating-bottle techniques are clearly inadequate to maintain useful 2-way communications across the Ocean Sea with Mission Control. The oceanauts would have to rely completely on their own skills and knowledge in dealing with the possibly hostile peoples of the Spice Islands. Since the current ACSA oceanauts were mostly selected for their skill in hauling on ropes, they would require expensive mission-specific training in linguistics, diplomacy, and firearms.

Navigation: The proposal suggested no method by which the oceanauts could measure their longitude, an essential aspect of navigation on a voyage to the West out of sight of land.

Mission Architecture: The proposed fleet composition of 2 shallow-draft caravels (Nina Pinta) for scouting and 1 heavy-lift cargo vessel (Santa Maria) for logistical support has many operational advantages over a homogenous fleet. However, the proposal does not address the increased risk of total mission failure introduced by the concentration of most of the expedition's consumables in one unhandy vessel. The loss of in the Ocean Sea could doom the surviving oceanauts to lingering deaths by starvation or thirst, even if the other ships were unharmed.

Programmatic Evaluation:
Funding: The PI's proposal to fund the mission out of the "Peace Dividend" from the approaching end of the Moorish War appears dangerous to the social stability of the Two Kingdoms. This plan would inevitably leave large numbers of demobilized soldiers wandering the countryside without any hope of civilian employment. A sales tax on pepper and cloves might be more appropriate.

Schedule: The proposed schedule for the first manned mission (launch 1492, return 1493) is extremely optimistic. Wedge charts provided by ACSA Headquarters suggest that its Royal Service staff will be fully committed to the Sea Station through FY 1508.

Shore Facilities: The PI's plan to conduct the entire mission from the obscure Castillian port of Palos would not provide an adequately broad political support base to insure long-term program stability. Support facilities should be distributed among several major seaports with influential noble families. At least %40 of project expenditures should be made in the Kingdom of Aragon.

Management: The proposed management structure, with an "Admiral of the Ocean Sea" directly controlling all aspects of the project, is unsound. In any case, the PI as a foreigner of low birth could not hold such a position. A high-profile mission such at this would require a Project Manager of royal blood and several Level 2 managers drawn from the land-owning hidalgo class.

Human Resources: The proposal did not contain any plan for achieving the mandated hiring quotas for Moorish War veterans and disabled galley-slaves. The security screening as outlined seems inadequate to insure against infiltration of the project by heretics. The proposal's unseemly emphasis on profits suggests that a Holy Inquisition background check on the PI himself may be needed.

Recommendation:
While the specific mission plan in this proposal is obviously unworkable, the Panel finds the underlying concept of westward exploration sound and attractive. It may well be the best way yet proposed for ACSA to justify its continued existence after the impending success of the Portuguese "African Searoute" program.

Such a program would produce an adequate technological and administrative base for long-term Spanish sea power, rather than the short-term windfall profits emphasized in the Columbo proposal. The future glory and prestige of the nation require no less!

Jeffrey F. Bell is Adjunct Professor of Planetology at the University of Hawai'i at Manoa. All opinions expressed in this article are his own and not those of the University.