Satcom Market Set to Decline by Mid-decade

SPACEMART

Satcom Market Set to Decline

the industry has gone south fear some analysts

Newtown - Mar 22, 2002
The commercial communications satellite market should see large spacecraft production levels reach their lowest point by the middle of the decade and remain flat through 2011, according to a recently released Forecast International market analysis.

"Commercial Communications Satellites: 2002-2011" predicts production of the large communications satellites which operate in geosynchronous orbit (GEO) will peak next year at more than 40 units, thereafter declining each year to 31 units by 2006.

"The GEO satcom industry has seen better days, but remains in relatively healthy shape, at least compared to the tech industry overall," said Ray Peterson, senior space systems analyst.

"However, the promising broadband Internet satellite market remains in its infancy and the recent departure of Lockheed Martin and TRW from the Astrolink program tells me that investor confidence in such programs remains elusive."

Still, during the next ten years, Forecast International expects more than 375 GEO satellites worth more than $41 billion will be produced. Much of this production is earmarked for established constellations, for example, those operated by Inmarsat, Intelsat, Eutelsat, PanAmSat and SES Global, as well as for direct-to-home satellite television providers like EchoStar and DirecTV.

The low-Earth-orbiting (LEO) satellite market, which is geared primarily toward providing mobile communications, remains in the doldrums, although there are glimmers of hope.

Skybridge, an ambitious European program aimed at placing 80 satellites in low-Earth orbits (LEO), stalled last year when the program's sponsor, Alcatel, said it would use existing capacity on GEO satellites to test the concept of delivering high-speed Internet traffic to consumers' homes.

Meanwhile, the Iridium global mobile satellite telephone service is holding on by a thread, backed primarily by the US Department of Defense.

For its part, Globalstar, which filed for bankruptcy protection earlier this year, said in February that the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware had approved all of the company's first day motions, allowing Globalstar to continue normal course operations.

As for good news, Teledesic, the brainchild of cellular pioneer Craig McCaw, signed an agreement with the Italian satellite manufacturer Alenia Spazio last month to build the initial spacecraft for a broadband Internet satellite communications network. The agreement calls for construction of Teledesic's first two satellites, with the remaining 28 spacecraft up for grabs.

"At one time, Teledesic developers envisioned a constellation of 288 LEO satellites," Peterson said. "The high cost of deploying so many satellites combined with lagging investor support pulled those plans back down to Earth."

SPACEMART

Study Shows Growth In The UK Space Industry

London - Mar 18, 2002
UK Space Industry turnover has increased by 17 per cent to �2.9 billion, according to the results of a new survey published last week. The study also shows employment has increased by 14 per cent.

Space Revenues Down; M&As Up In Volume and Value

Bethesda - Mar 6, 2002
In the aftermath of September 11th, the importance of satellites as a solution to problems has never been greater. Whether for the military, for homeland defense, or commercial services, the role that space and satellites play in today's world has increased dramatically and represents a part of our everyday lives.

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