The vehicle resembles a predictable extrapolation of a Long March booster, topped by a payload shroud that's similar to, but not exactly the same as, a Soyuz booster.

Hidden beneath this shroud is China's first human spacecraft, a locally designed and manufactured vehicle that's said to resemble a Russian Soyuz. To Western observers, it is known as Project 921.

China has publicly stated that it is gearing up for human spaceflight in the very near future, and has sent trainees to Star City in Russia. Put together all the available information, and it's easy to assemble a mental collage.

China's first crew-carrying spacecraft will be tested very soon. Its maiden flight will be in an unpiloted mode, and the first astronauts will ride it into orbit at some time in the year 2000.

While Russia and the West struggle to carry out missions with an ageing fleet of shuttles and Soyuz vehicles, China will introduce the first truly new spacecraft to be deployed in roughly twenty years.

It would seem, as socialists were fond of saying, to be a great leap forward. But is the leap really so great at the moment? China has certainly earned itself some impressive credentials in rocketry and astronautics, but foreign observers could be deceiving themselves if they think Chinese human spaceflight is just around the corner.

The story reporting that crews were being selected for spaceflight, and that most of the technical problems relating to the development of a Chinese spacecraft had been solved was printed in the official newspaper China Daily when the author of this article was in that country.

If the state-sanctioned press were stating it, there must surely be some credibility to the report. There's just one problem. I saw this report in 1986. Since then, rumours and semi-official releases have periodically surfaced.

All of them suggested that the debut of the long-expected Chinese spacecraft was imminent. We've waited, and waited again, yet China has not so much as released illustrations of a prototype.

The latest episode of the Great Wait has changed slightly, in that photographs of the alleged booster have been published. These illustrations also show a large Vehicle Assembly Building, reminiscent of the Kennedy Space Centre.

It would seem a lot of infrastructure has been developed without anyone noticing. The rocket itself looks rather too consistent with what's been suspected by Western observers. These factors could well be consistent with an actual program, but it's also consistent with a carefully constructed fake.

In an age where digital image manipulation is commonplace, producing a convincing fabrication would be relatively straightforward. But why would anyone bother? It could be a private joke by a talented prankster who may or may not choose to reveal the truth in the future.

It could have been released by an intelligence agency from a non-Chinese government, possibly to cloud the waters or see if a response can be provoked. There's always the possibility that the Chinese themselves have produced it for propaganda reasons.

China is clearly trying to assert its military strength as it confronts flashpoints such as Taiwan, the Spratly Islands and its stingy relationship with the USA. In the past, human spaceflight was used as a propaganda vehicle by the USA and the Soviet Union.

A nation that could launch astronauts into space could also flex its muscles on Earth. China could easily have decided to follow suit. Release some photos now, and much of the same propaganda victory can be obtained without even flying a mission.

According to notes released on the Internet, the photographs were allegedly scanned in from, of all things, a brochure from a construction company that apparently wasn't aware it was releasing sensitive material! It's an interesting suggestion, but this alleged explanation is even more ludicrous than suggestions of outright fakery.

Ultimately, the question of the authenticity of these photographs has little bearing on the overall nature of the Chinese human spaceflight program. While we may sweat over the details, there is no question that China is working towards the deployment of its own spacecraft.

It has the boosters to lift it, and more experience in recovering capsules than the European Space Agency. Add some technical assistance from Russia with a little home-grown technology, and human spaceflight is certainly within their grasp.

However, it seems entirely probable that we won't see People's Space Explorers (or whatever) within the next year. Human spaceflight is a tricky business. Test flights normally reveal a number of problems that must be debugged before humans can strap themselves on board.

Tolerances that would be sufficient for uncrewed systems may be totally unacceptable. A catastrophic problem with the launcher or payload can set a program back by years. China has yet to confront these issues, although one could argue that their experience with recoverable satellites will make testing their prototypes slightly easier.

Such a testing regime requires time to bring to fruition. Even if a prototype is launched in late 1999, it could take a lot of work or a lot of luck to prepare for an astronaut launch in 2000.

Even if the vehicle can be made ready for flight in the next few months, China would do well to delay even launching a test mission. The status of its space program, like those of most other nations, is heavily dependent on commercial launches, principally foreign ones.

Concern over alleged technology transfer from US companies to the Chinese has broiled to almost histrionic proportions, with almost any form of interaction suddenly becoming suspect. The presence of a Chinese human spaceflight program has also been mentioned in the infamous Cox report as one example of China's aggressive progress in high technology, although it seems the Cox report has made errors in its analysis of this program.

The USA is currently poised in anticipation of any hard evidence it can seize of recent advances in Chinese aerospace technology. The sudden debut of such a high-profile advanced venture as a human spacecraft could not come at a worse moment!

Justified or not, such a development would be trumpeted as justification for the harsh measures currently being imposed on the US aerospace industry. Exports would dwindle, companies would suffer on both sides of the Pacific, and international tensions would rise.

Whatever the truth behind the recently released photographs or the Chinese space program in general, a balanced and sane response is required. We should be careful about discerning facts from rumour or opinion. We should consider the consequences of any reaction, when bureaucratic and political tensions are so high. Above all, when the long-anticipated Chinese spacecraft finally flies, we should not panic.

Morris Jones is a Sydney-based consultant and journalist. He can be reached at [email protected]