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Possible September Surprise For China's Second Manned Launch

File image of a Shenzhou vehicle during in final assembly and testing.
by Morris Jones
Sydney, Australia (SPX) Sep 07, 2005
China may bring forward it's second manned space mission to later this month, a space official said Tuesday in Shanghai. "The launch of Shenzhou VI spacecraft could be in September or October, " said Zhang Qingwei, president of the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp, the Shanghai Morning Post reported.

Chinese space technicians are conducting final tests on the craft, and the actual launch time will be adjusted according to the test results, according to Zhang. But he estimated that the craft is most likely to blast off sooner that originally anticipated.

A flag for the 2010 World Expo to be held in Shanghai will be carried aboard Shenzhou-6, according to Zhang, adding that Shanghai citizens will probably have the chance to see the articles that will go with Shenzhou 6 soon.

China became the third nation to successfully send a man into space in October 2003, when astronaut Yang Liwei orbited the Earth 14 times on the Shenzhou V spacecraft.

What is happening with Shenzhou 6?

In all likelihood, Chinese space official have developed a schedule that provides ample time to resolve any technical glitches with the spacecraft. It's now possible that Shenzhou 6 has been less troublesome than its predecessors.

With rocket, spacecraft and astronauts all ready to go, China could have decided there is no point in delaying the launch, and that extending the timeframe, could serve only to increase the chance an unforeseen event arises.

Previous Shenzhou missions have experienced technical problems that have curtailed their launch dates. One test flight was rolled out of its assembly building, then returned when engineers discovered serious flaws. A delay of months ensued before the vehicle finally lifted off.

With five previous missions behind them, including the successful flight of China's first astronaut in 2003, Shenzhou's engineers would have by now largely succeeded in debugging this complex spacecraft. The design is now largely fixed, and procedures for manufacturing and rolling out the vehicle for flight have been tested many time times now and the confidence of for preflight processing has increased.

The timing of the mission could also have a political angle. Internationally, China is active on many fronts at the present, ranging from controversies over export quotas for clothing to Europe, to the possible return in the near future of the six party talks on North Korea in Beijing. Senior officials in the Communist Party could feel that launching Chinese astronauts as soon as possible could improve China's image in one, or several of China's current international initiatives.

Another attraction for launching in September an early mission is the upcoming meeting between Chinese President Hu Jintao and US President George W. Bush. NASA's recent problems could also make the success of China's fledgling human spaceflight program seem more significant. It's even possible that some announcement, or new project, that is currently unknown to external observers could be planned for the near future, and the launch could be timed to coincide with this.

Even if China sticks to its original plan of launching Shenzhou 6 in mid-October, the very fact that an earlier launch has been mooted in public is noteworthy. It points to a greater confidence in the Shenzhou system, as well as suggesting that launch schedules are not necessarily as rigid as some observers may have previously suspected.

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