The central government's hard-line tactics with Hong Kong are inconsistent with its progressive policies in other areas, said American scholar Harry Harding, speaking in Hong Kong on Monday.

"Hong Kong is the one dimension of (China's) human rights situation where things are getting noticeably worse," said Harding, who is dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University in Washington, D.C.

"When we see China's overall foreign policy becoming more accommodating and liberal, more hands-off with Taiwan, why this counter-trend in Hong Kong? That is raising alarm bells in America," he said.

U.S.-China relations could suffer if Beijing's attempts to suppress democratic debate in Hong Kong give rise to criticism from U.S. politicians, followed by complaints from Beijing over U.S. interference in China's affairs. U.S. Consul General in Hong Kong James Keith, and visiting U.S. Senator Sam Brownback, R-Kansas, have already drawn angry protests from Beijing over their comments in support of pro-democracy activists.

Some analysts have questioned Beijing's commitment to the one country, two systems policy, suggesting that Taiwan's repeated adamant rejection of the concept has made it irrelevant for Beijing to prove in Hong Kong that the system is workable. In the first years after Hong Kong's return to China, it was clear that Beijing hoped to create a model of reunification with the city that would tempt Taiwan to follow suit.

Harding thinks that this tactic has not changed. "One country, two systems is still a necessary, but no longer a sufficient, strategy for dealing with Taiwan," he said. "China needs it to be perceived as working."

As if to underscore the point, Hong Kong's Chief Executive Tung Chee Hwa addressed a seminar on Monday at the One Country Two Systems Research Institute, held to mark the 14th anniversary of the passage of Hong Kong's Basic Law.

Tung repeated the principles that Beijing has been espousing in recent weeks: that Hong Kong's government must remain "executive-led," that "patriots must form the main body that rules Hong Kong," and that "gradual and orderly progress" is the only acceptable approach to constitutional reform.

Hong Kong's pro-democracy legislators, scholars, and activists are deeply frustrated by these oft-repeated phrases and the government's refusal to engage in meaningful debate toward finding a way out of the city's political impasse.

China certainly needs a new strategy to woo Taiwan, where voters on Saturday will choose between the pro-unification Lien Chan and the pro-independence Chen Shui-bian for their president. In a referendum, they will also voice their views on whether Taipei should initiate new dialogue with Beijing, or purchase missile defense systems to protect themselves against China.

On Sunday, Premier Wen Jiabao criticized Taiwan's referendum as an attempt to pursue independence "under the pretext of democracy" which, he said, posed a threat to stability across the Taiwan Strait and challenged the one-China principle. The same day, People's Liberation Army forces were pouring into Fujian Province, just across the Taiwan Strait from the island, where they will remain on alert until after Taiwan's election.

Such words and deeds are frustrating to both camps in Taiwan. Even the pro-unificationists see one China as a distant goal, and maintaining the uneasy status quo as their best policy for the present.

In Harding's view, despite the pre-election drama, the election will not bring great change no matter who wins. "There are enormous constraints on both men, both domestic and internationally," he said. "China is not going to overreact to the election of Chen Shui-bian. They have not overreacted so far."

If tensions do escalate however, the Bush administration will be under pressure to respond. Chen strained his relations with the United States by ignoring President George W. Bush's warning not to hold the referendum, but the Taiwan Relations Act holds the United States responsible to protect Taiwan should the PLA soldiers in Fujian engage in any rash action.

Basically strong U.S.-China relations make conflict between the two an unlikely scenario. Still, in an election year, Bush will not want to openly side with China in opposing democracy in either Taiwan or Hong Kong.

Even if Taiwan's presidential election takes place without incident and Beijing accepts the result with good grace, or confines its fury to verbal abuse if Chen wins, at best the region will be restored to its restless calm.

Eventually China's leaders will have to do more than that. President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao are praised on the mainland and in Hong Kong for their "people first" policies, and their bold moves to liberalize society, privatize the economy, and eradicate corruption. In this context it is hard to grasp why they revert to traditional hard-line authoritarianism in dealing with the issue of democracy in Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Given the Communist Party's history of establishing experimental zones to test new policies, such as the Special Economic Zones that were the forerunner of the country's economic opening, perhaps the leaders should think about setting up Hong Kong as a Special Political Zone, where the democratic process could be tested.

They might be surprised at the results. They might discover that the people of Hong Kong are both practical and patriotic and can manage their own affairs very well, including closer economic integration with the mainland. And they might create the model that truly would appeal to Taiwan, giving pro-unificationists a practical path forward.

It is too early to say whether Hu and Wen have such far-reaching vision and courage, but it is to be hoped that they can do something more than create rhetorical barriers to political progress.

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