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Analysis: One Country, Two Tactics

you will be assimilated
by Kathleen Hwang
Hong Kong (UPI) Mar 09, 2004
Tempers flared in Beijing and in Hong Kong over the weekend as anti- and pro-democracy forces clashed in a war of rhetoric over democratic activist Martin Lee's testimony to the U.S. Senate last week. The issue is driving a deeper wedge between already profoundly divided political camps.

Prompting the angry exchanges was the visit to the United States by Democratic Party founder and legislator Martin Lee and three other activists, who had been invited to testify before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee last Thursday on China's involvement in democratic development in Hong Kong.

Lee's behavior in Washington was circumspect, and in his statements to the committee and to U.S. government officials he was optimistic that Beijing would eventually grant democratic freedoms to Hong Kong. But Sen. Sam Brownback, who led the hearing, warned that he might proposeLegislation calling for U.S. actions against China if it curtailed democratic pursuits in Hong Kong, a threat that infuriated Chinese in both Beijing and Hong Kong.

The official China Daily accused Lee in a Monday editorial of "bringing an internal issue to foreign countries and begging support from foreign forces," an action that might "hurt the fundamental interests of the Hong Kong people and delay the democratic process."

Lee arrived at the Hong Kong airport Sunday to a barrage of insults and jeers of "traitor" from his opponents, while supporters carrying placards labeling him a "patriotic hero" tried to shield him. Police had to escort him from the airport.

Sunday in Beijing, on his way to a meeting of Hong Kong delegates to the National People's Congress, Vice-Minister of Commerce An Min called Lee a liar and a traitor.

"Everything he says is false," An told local reporters in response to A question about Lee's trip, the South China Morning Post reported Monday. "To go to foreigners for Chinese affairs, isn't that betraying the country?" He added.

Lee, upon hearing of the attack, suggested that An "learn some manners" and behave more like President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, both of whom have shown surprising restraint in their pronouncements on Hong Kong.

Lee's U.S. visit took place at a sensitive time, just as the annual meetings of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and the National People's Congress were getting underway in Beijing. During the meetings, various delegates have made references to Hong Kong democrats ranging from personal slurs and criticisms to threats.

The clash at the airport is indicative of the fevered debate that has polarized Hong Kong since pro-Beijing voices began calling a few weeks ago for "patriots" to rule Hong Kong, in response to the push forUniversal suffrage ignited through popular demonstrations last year.

Disputes have raged over who can claim to be a patriot, and over what it means to "love China and love Hong Kong," criteria put forth by the late mainland Communist leader Deng Xiaoping.

Observers have cringed as nasty tactics common during the Cultural Revolution -- such as name-calling, questioning people's patriotism, and attacking family backgrounds -- have been revived. An Min, in his attack on Lee, went so far as to call him an anti-communist, just like his deceased father.

The elder Lee was a Kuomintang officer who fought against the Japanese, and fled to Hong Kong when the Communists took control of China in 1949. The reference to Lee's incorrect background is unpleasantly reminiscent of the cruel class labeling that pitted Chinese against one another during the 1960s and '70s.

Some in the democratic camp have been distracted by the patriotisM debate and the need to prove their credentials, but others have stuck doggedly to their guns. Careful analysis of the Basic Law that rules Hong Kong has convinced them that the document does not exclude the possibility of direct elections of the chief executive as early as 2007, and they are unlikely to abandon their push for reforms that will give Hong Kong citizens more control over their own lives.

The open question is, what does Beijing really intend? Do the leaders mean to crack down on Hong Kong's democratic aspirations, or will they support an orderly transition to a more representative system of government? Reading the mixed messages is as confusing as the ancient Chinese custom of reading tea leaves.

In Beijing on Sunday, the central government sent 12 top officials to attend a meeting of Hong Kong delegates to the National People's Congress, an unusually heavyweight delegation for a regional meeting. Analysts said it underscOred the central government's concern over Hong Kong's affairs.

NPC Chairman Wu Bangguo, who is ranked second in the Communist Party hierarchy, led the group. He reportedly focused on closer mainland-Hong Kong economic cooperation, and urged "gradual and orderly progress" toward political reform. Since Hong Kong's delegation contained no democrats, there was no one to challenge or question him as to what exactly that meant.

Hu Jintao, rather than backing the attacks on the democrats, has remained reserved, even perhaps mildly encouraging. According to the official Xinhua News Agency, in a weekend meeting with Chief Executive Tung Chee-Hwa, "Hu spoke highly of the positive discussion on the principle of 'one country, two systems' in Hong Kong."

Tung told Hong Kong reporters that the central leaders wanted "calm, reasonable and rational" discussions on the principles underlying Hong Kong's political structure, especiallyThe "one-country, two-systems" formula. The predominance of "one country" over "two systems" has been stressed repeatedly by pro-Beijing voices, prompting pro-democracy think tank head Christine Loh to respond, "You win; we get it!"

Loh has criticized what she calls Beijing's "you love me not strategy," saying it is ineffective because "it is divisive and emotional, and has excited the international media to plaster quotes from the (Beijing) mouthpieces all over the world."

In her analysis, the Chinese virtue of pragmatism may yet win out. She foresees the central government easing off the pressure on Hong Kong once the two big political conferences in Beijing are over, and making moves to reassure the business sector that the city's economic interests will be protected despite all the bluster.

The government will continue to gauge public sentiment and try to avert another big protest on July 1, the anniversary of HonG Kong's hand over to China and of last year's huge demonstration.

And most important, Loh says, the government needs to identify Hong Kong's next chief executive, as well as other key appointees. If the decision is not to be left up to the people, Beijing had better have its candidate chosen and well positioned long before Tung's term expires in 2007.

For the democratic camp, the challenge is the same. The first hurdle will be legislative elections in September, at which they hope to win a majority of seats for the first time. Then they will face the challenge of uniting their voices into one, deciding on a political platform, and selecting a candidate for 2007.

These are big tasks for a group of largely inexperienced politicians, facing a divided and wary electorate. And whether their candidate will ever have the chance to run for election is a question likely to remain unanswered till much later in the complex gamE they are playing with Beijing.

All rights reserved. Copyright 2004 by United Press International. Sections of the information displayed on this page (dispatches, photographs, logos) are protected by intellectual property rights owned by United Press International. As a consequence, you may not copy, reproduce, modify, transmit, publish, display or in any way commercially exploit any of the content of this section without the prior written consent of by United Press International.

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