An often turbulent relationship is enveloped by a new chill, coincidentally just before the April 1 anniversary of a spy-plane drama which plunged Beijing-Washington ties into their deepest crisis in years.

The spark for the latest row was the US decision to allow Taiwan's defense minister Tang Yao-ming to attend a defense summit in Florida two weeks ago, which prompted a volley of furious condemnations from Beijing.

China accused Washington of whipping up a "freezing wind" to chill bilateral relations and of infringing bedrock Sino-US agreements.

In the past year both sides have struggled keep a host of disagreements, ranging from human rights to proliferation out of view, and to move on from the spy-plane incident in the new environment spawned by the September 11 terror attacks.

The question now is whether the latest row, which came as Beijing was alarmed at a leaked Pentagon report that said China could be on a list of potential targets for US nuclear missiles, will seriously harm the relationship?

Top of the agenda are planned visits to the United States this year of China's presumed next leader Hu Jintao, and President Jiang Zemin, which China's foreign ministry hinted last week could be at risk.

"For them to start making a big deal out of it now I think indicates a growing insecurity, or a growing lack of confidence in the leadership about a whole slew of other issues," said John Tkacik, of the Heritage Foundation, a think-tank with close ties to the administration.

Tkacik argued that China's outrage was a sign of dubious personal chemistry between Bush and Jiang, despite two recent journeys by the US leader to Beijing.

"Bush's trip on October 20-21 was not a love fest like Clinton's in 1998. There was a lot of strain between him and Jiang Zemin then. When he went in a month ago there was even more strain."

Many observers here believe that Beijing's outrage may be a symptom of political maneuverings ahead of expected leadership changes at the 16th Party Congress this fall.

Orthodox ideologues in the Chinese leadership and military leaders may be trying to assert themselves after losing ground following the spy-plane drama, they say.

"I think domestic politics is absolutely critical at this time," said John Gershman of the progressive think-tank Foreign Policy in Focus.

But Gershman warned that US officials would do well not to attribute China's anger over the Taiwan issue purely to domestic politics.

"The issue of Taiwan within the party calculus is an issue that goes beyond what you might think of rational political calculation," he said.

The Taiwan defense summit, sponsored by US arms manufactures in Florida, evidenced the robust support for the nationalist island from the administration, which last year signed off on a huge arms deal for Taipei.

But it also hinted at perceived splits among Bush aides on China policy, often seen as a struggle between a hawkish Pentagon and more moderate State Department.

"It was a conflict in the administration that has not been resolved," said Gershman.

Elizabeth Economy, China specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations added: "I think Beijing is probably right to be a little bit puzzled."

"What they are seeing is two different foreign policies emerging, the Taiwan policy coming out of the Pentagon and a mainland policy coming out of the State Department with apparently nobody coordinating the two."

Few observers believe that either the Hu or Jiang visits are in doubt -- largely because China pushed extremely hard for the invitations.

Furthermore, Beijing's warnings were delivered largely in the media or by officials that Richard Solomon, President of the US Institute for Peace called of "upper middle level significance."

"It seems to me that the outcome is a warning rather than a major turnaround. I think the leadership in Beijing is still committed to trying to develop a working relationship with the US," said Solomon, a former senior State Department official.

All rights reserved. � 2002 Agence France-Presse. Sections of the information displayed on this page (dispatches, photographs, logos) are protected by intellectual property rights owned by Agence France-Presse. As a consequence, you may not copy, reproduce, modify, transmit, publish, display or in any way commercially exploit any of the content of this section without the prior written consent of Agence France-Presse.

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