Despite stiff opposition from PeopleSoft's board of directors, analysts said Oracle will likely succeed in its takeover bid.

When Wall Street closed Monday, PeopleSoft's shares were up 19 centspercent) at 23.36 dollars, while Oracle's stock price dropped seven cents (0.55 percent) to 12.68 dollars.

Oracle announced over the weekend it had taken control of 61 percent of PeopleSoft's shares, but PeopleSoft's board of directors again rejected its rival's tender offer of 24 dollars per share, saying it was inadequate.

"They are at an impasse," AMR analyst James Shepherd was quoted as saying in The New York Times.

"It doesn't look like Oracle is going to back off," he added. "They've had plenty of opportunities to gracefully back away."

Oracle's shares have suffered since launching its bid, now worth 9.2 billion dollars, in June 2003. Its stock price was worth 13.36 dollars on June 5, 2003 on the eve of its offer.

PeopleSoft's stock price has risen thanks to the anticipation of an Oracle victory, analysts said. A share was worth 15.11 dollars on June 5, 2003.

"We believe that the stock would be trading notably lower without the bid," said Drew Brosseau and Adam Liebhoff of SG Cowen.

"We continue to believe that Oracle will ultimately succeed in its effort," the analysts said.

Representatives for both companies are due back Wednesday in a Delaware state courtroom, where Oracle has sought a judge's ruling to strike down PeopleSoft's anti-takeover defenses.

However, experts do not expect the judge will rule to strike down the defensive measures, setting the stage for a proxy fight for control of PeopleSoft's board.

In the latest quarrel between the two companies, Oracle on Monday questioned the credibility of PeopleSoft's 2005 financial forecasts.

"It is nearly unanimous among financial analysts that your new FY 2005 guidance is simply not credible," Oracle said in a letter to PeopleSoft's board of directors.

PeopleSoft said over the weekend it expects license revenue of 640 million to 655 million dollars in 2005, an increase of five to 10 percent, and total revenue of 2.8 billion to 2.9 billion dollars -- four to eight percent growth.

Earnings per share in 2005 are expected to fall between 1.05 and 1.10 dollars, PeopleSoft said. The median projection of analyst forecasts compiled by the First Call agency is 83 cents.

"Guidance for 2005 does not include any potential benefit from the elimination of the Oracle overhang," PeopleSoft said.

For the fourth quarter of 2004, PeopleSoft said it anticipates license revenue of 175 million to 185 million dollars, and total revenue of between 700 million and 715 million.

Pro forma earnings per share will be between 0.20 and 0.22; GAAP earnings per share, those calculated under accounting norms recognized by regulators, are projected at 0.14 to 0.16 per share, it said.

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