With UN experts predicting a rise of 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius in average surface temperatures by 2100, "in Russia that might be multiplied by 1.5 and in Siberia would be multiplied by 2.0," Georgy Golitsyn, director of Moscow's Institute of Atmospheric Physics said in an interview.

"The population might like it ... The warmer winters have increased the length of the vegetation period of plants in European Russia by between 10 days and two weeks," Golitsyn noted.

However "extreme weather events might happen more frequently, (with) the melting of permafrost, which is already noticeable, and damage risks to buildings, roads and pipelines. Pipelines are always having some trouble," he said.

The effects of global warming will be most marked in winter and particularly at the higher latitudes, notably in Siberia and in northwestern Russia, the expert predicted.

Greater precipitation in the form of rain or snow will occur, particularly in winter and early spring, with the Siberian river basis -- the Ob, Yenisei and Lena rivers -- the most affected.

"Here in Moscow and in European Russia, really cold episodes are becoming quite rare. And in Siberia, very heavy frosts have almost disappeared. Instead of minus 40 Celsius or minus 50 which were quite frequent, now these occur just occasionally and they usually experience minus 30," he said.

The disastrous flooding of the Lena river basin in 2001 gave a foretaste of the problems to come, he noted.

"The winter had been normal, but ... the soil was frozen and then in May a heat wave came with temperatures up to 30 degrees when the snow had not melted yet. ... This is the type of castastrophe we might have more frequently."

Golitsyn's warning was backed by Michel Petit, until April 2002 the French representative in the Intergovernemental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), who noted that Siberia was "one of the most sensitive regions to climate change on the planet."

According to IPCC figures, average surface warming in 2100 "could reach five to six degrees in southern Siberia and the north of western Russia, six to eight degrees for the Siberian north, and eight to 10 degrees for the Siberian far north and the Arctic," Petit warned.

The five-day Moscow conference which closes Friday has convened some 1,200 experts from 43 countries.

It comes as UN officials and leaders of several European countries press Russia to ratify the 1997 Kyoto protocol on reducing greenhouse gases in order to bring the treaty into force.

In his opening address to the conference, President Vladimir Putin said Russia had not yet made up its mind on the issue.

A Russian expert regarded as opposed to the Kyoto protocol, Georgy Gruza, told AFP that global warming could provide benefits to Russia.

Agriculture would gain and "there could be vineyards where currently there is rye," he said, citing as an example the "region around the Caspian Sea."

Maritime transport would also gain, with navigation in northern Russia becoming "possible all year round."

However he conceded that melting of the permafrost, which covers 60 percent of Russia's surface, would be a "real catastrophe," turning Siberia into a swamp.

"Major industrial complexes, towns and pipelines would subside. Carbon dioxide and methane would escape, and the greenhouse effect would become even more serious," he said.

SPACE.WIRE