Gartner Inc. predicted worldwide computer shipments of 30.7 million units in the second quarter of 2003, a 6.4 percent increase from the second quarter of 2002.

In terms of revenues, however, the market is projected to have worldwide sales of 38.3 billion dollars in the second quarter, an increase of just 2.6 percent, reflecting lower prices.

Gartner analysts said PC shipments are projected to reach 136.9 million in 2003, a 6.6 percent increase from 2002. But PC revenues are on pace to total 170.6 billion dollars in 2003, up 3.3 percent.

The 2003 forecast was cut from a February report in which Gartner predicted 2003 sales of 138.7 million units, a 7.9 percent increase.

The industry is coming off sluggish growth in 2002 that followed the worst year even for the sector in 2001.

"The good news for the global economy is that the US-led war against Saddam concluded more quickly and with fewer damaging economic consequences than many expected," said George Shiffler, analyst for Gartner's computing platforms and economics research.

"The bad news is that the global economy does not appear to be experiencing the uplift that so many anticipated once the war was concluded, at least not yet."

Gartner said economic problems in the US and elsewhere remain even after the end of the Iraq conflict.

"In the United States, prospects for a recovery remain mixed and economists are increasingly split over whether 2003 GDP growth will prove better or worse than 2002," Shiffler said.

"The outlook for the general economic recovery would be greatly enhanced were Europe able to engineer some autonomous growth, but the prospects for this remain poor because of weak confidence, the appreciating euro, and overly tight macroeconomics."

Shiffler said the SARS outbreak in Asia "is already having an appreciable impact on select economies in the region, and there is a rising danger that the outbreak could significantly impact the entire region if intra-regional trade is severely disrupted."

The analyst said the PC industry is getting a small lift from the new mobile computers made for wireless Internet or "Wi-Fi" connections, like Intel's Centrino.

"However, we do not expect Centrino to boost notebook sales significantly in the short term because its main target, large scale enterprises, usually take at least three to six months to evaluate new technologies," Shiffler said.

SPACE.WIRE