There is a 62 percent probability that a quake of at least a 6.7 degrees on the open-ended Richter scale will strike the Bay area between now and 2032, survey seismologist Paul Riasenberg, one of the authors of the study, told AFP.

The risk factor increases to 80-96 percent for an earthquake of between 6.0 and 6.6 degrees, he added.

"This is very high probability. It means that it is almost inevitable that there will be such an earthquake," Riasenberg said Tuesday.

The damage caused by such strong earthquakes would vary according to location and building construction materials, he said.

"If you are located on bedrock such as San Francisco, a magnitude 6.0 earthquake will probably not be damaging," he said, adding that in the softer ground surrounding San Francisco Bay "the shaking can be amplified, and this magnitude an earthquake can cause important damage."

Around 80 scientists from universities, government institutions and private enterprises took part in the study.

Similar research conducted in 1999 put the risk of a 6.7-degree earthquake striking San Francisco by the year 2030 at 70 percent.

SPACE.WIRE