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Syria not in firing line to be next US military target, analysts say
LONDON (AFP) Apr 14, 2003
Syria is almost certainly not harboring senior leaders from Saddam Hussein's fallen Iraqi regime and is more a political than a military target of the United States, analysts said Monday.

Their comments were in tune with those from British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw who said in Manama that Syria is not next on the list for an allied invasion after Iraq.

Daniel Neep, of the London think tank the Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies (RUSI), said the administration of US President George W. Bush is probably a lot less willing to go to war again than some people think.

"The Americans see how difficult it was not just politically but to a certain extent militarily to go into Iraq, particularly as the post-conflict scenario begins to unfold," he said, referring to international opposition to the war and criticisms the Americans are blocking the United Nations from a priority role in overseeing the formation of a new Iraqi government.

"I think that is more than enough to put them off dealing with another country" Neep said.

Bush stepped up criticism of Syria on Sunday, adding to the list of accusations that it had allowed senior Iraqi leaders to escape through its territory.

US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said Syrian volunteers fought US troops in Baghdad after entering Iraq by the busload.

But Toby Dodge, a professor at Britain's University of Warwick and a recognized Middle Eastern authority, said the Syrian leadership would have to be "suicidal or foolish to let in senior (Iraqi) figures as they know they are in the gunsights of Donald Rumsfeld".

"My best interpretation is that the Syrian regime is very astute and savvy," Dodge said.

He came to the same conclusion about Syria letting in Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, although other analysts in London said Saddam had been moving these across the border before war began on March 20.

British Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon told reporters Monday that Britain was concerned Syria might use fleeing Iraqi scientists to help it develop weapons of mass destruction.

The Syrians, said Dodge, "feel understandably under a great deal of threat from the Bush doctrine" of taking preventive action against perceived terrorist threats.

But he said that whatever weapons of mass destruction the Iraqis had "is sitting with Saddam in either Baghdad or Tikrit."

These weapons are the former Iraqi dictator's "last bargaining chip," Dodge said.

Michael Clarke, of the London think tank the International Policy Institute, said the Americans are "sensibly setting down red lines" for Syria rather than preparing for war.

"Wanting more active cooperation from Syria in the Iraqi conflict is not unreasonable from the American point of view," Clarke said.

He said Washington "wants Syria to come off the fence" and that the trade-off may be for Syria to cut its backing for the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon in exchange for Israel making concessions in the Middle East peace process.

Hezbollah and its threat to Israel is America's main concern over Syria, particularly as Syria has been cooperating in Washington's anti-terrorism war, Clarke said.

He said that while Syria "certainly has chemical capabilities, there is no real evidence they are able to weaponize" such materials, which gives them limited firepower faced with Israel, which is believed to have weapons of mass destruction of its own.

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