SPACE WIRE
Jordan, Egypt leaders to meet amid concerns over civil war risk in Iraq
CAIRO (AFP) Apr 13, 2003
Jordan's King Abdullah II is expected for talks here on Monday, amid concerns that the current unrest in post-Saddam Iraq could deteriorate into a full-fledged civil war and spread to other countries in the Arab world.

According to official Egyptian sources, the Hashemite monarch and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak are due to discuss "the need to restore order and security" in Iraq.

Scenes of pillaging in areas where Saddam's repressive machine has disappeared have sparked fears that the power vacuum left by the collapse of the Iraqi regime may generate unrest between Iraq's patchwork of communities.

Saddam and the elite of his Baath party which ruled the country with an iron fist for three decades are from the Sunni minority, which now fears retribution from the majority Shiite Muslims.

Resurfacing tribal structures might also create new tensions, while Kurdish claims on northern cities which have large Arab populations and had remained under the control of Baghdad could put further strain on post-Saddam Iraq.

Mubarak predicted Saturday that a civil war was likely if the US-British coalition troops who toppled Saddam continued to "allow the confrontation between the Sunnis, Shiites, Kurds and the tribes".

"The most important thing is to maintain unity of the Iraqi territory and not let it be divided," he said, stressing that "US and British troops in Iraq were responsible for maintaining law and order".

Jordan also voiced its concern, with Information Minister Mohamad Adwan saying that "maintaining security and stability must be the priority in Iraq" and calling on Arab countries to take a joint and "efficient stand on the future of Iraq."

But Arab countries and institutions are looking silently on, powerless, and are also terrified that prolonged chaos in Iraq could spill over and revive intercommunal tensions at home or stir popular discontent.

Foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council states are due to meet Tuesday in Riyadh to "tackle current regional developments in the wake of the fall of the Iraqi regime."

But as coalition troops are struggling to control the security situation in Iraq, no concrete measures are expected to come out of the summit.

And the Arab League has remained mum, with its chief Amr Mussa admitting the 22-member Cairo-based body might not survive this fresh regional crisis.

Most Arab countries have urged Washington and London to take responsibility for the security situation in Iraq, amid widespread suspicion that coalition troops are deliberately allowing chaos to deepen in order to justify a prolonged occupation.

But the spectre of civil war also strikes a chord at an internal level with Arab countries governed by a regime from an ethnic or religious minority, or whose ties with the United States could generate growing popular resentment.

Egypt and Jordan both fall into one or more of those categories.

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