SPACE WIRE
Washington girds for delicate task in rebuilding Iraq
WASHINGTON (AFP) Apr 11, 2003
The economic and political reconstruction of post-war Iraq poses a delicate task for the United States, whose designs on control of the process are opposed by a good part of the world community.

Former US General Jay Garner, 64, who heads the Office of Humanitarian Aid and Reconstruction (OHAR), has been designated by Washington as provisional administrator in Baghdad.

Answerable to the Pentagon, Garner will be charged with mapping a humanitarian relief plan and coordinating civilian reconstruction once hostilities officially end.

His first challenge will be to stabilize the country by ensuring public safety, furnishing humanitarian aid and providing for the return of refugees.

From there, Washington will begin setting up a provisional Iraqi authority to bring the population into the transition process.

"We have in mind a broad-based interim authority that would draw from all of the religious and ethnic groups, including Iraqis that are inside Iraq now, as well as those that are outside," said Alan Larson, under-Secretary of State for Economic, Business and Agricultural Affairs.

The economic phase of Iraq's reconstruction promises to be more controversial.

While Europe, Japan and Russia among others want the United Nations to have the premier role, particularly in managing Iraq's substantial oil revenue, Washington has made clear it wants to control that sector.

Secretary of State Colin Powell on Thursday said that, in the US view, the United Nations should be confined to humanitarian and technical assistance.

The New York Times editorialized that "the United States cannot rebuild Iraq or shepherd Iraqis to democracy by willfully excluding Europe, the United Nations or Iraqis not of its choosing.

"Any attempt to do so would risk squandering the gratitude and goodwill that were so evident yesterday on the streets of Baghdad," said the Times, referring to scenes of Iraqis celebrating, and defacing images of Saddam Hussein.

The cost of Iraqi reconstruction -- without any estimates of damage from the US-led war, from 23 years of a repressive regime and 11 years of post-Gulf War embargoes -- remains hypothetical.

A study done by Rice University in December estimated the figure at between 25 and 100 billion dollars.

Experts testifying before the US Congress have put the figure at between 20 and 25 billion dollars per year, including investment in Iraq's oil industry.

To pay that bill, Washington is counting heavily on Iraq's oil reserves, the world's second largest. Oil has accounted for some 95 percent of Iraq's revenue.

"Iraq is a wealthy nation," said White House spokesman Ari Fleischer. "Iraq will have a huge financial base from within upon which to draw. And that's because of their oil wealth."

Vice President Dick Cheney said Wednesday that getting Iraq's oil infrastructure up and running again should allow a return to pre-war production of 2.5 million barrels a day by the end of 2003.

The United States is also counting on Iraq's population and its historical gift for commerce to revive the country.

"Iraq, like Europe (in 1945), has many physical assets, including its vast oil reserves to build on," said Jack Kemp, co-director of Power America and a former vice-presidential candidate.

"Most important, however, are its human assets, a population that is well-educated, skilled at trading and production," he added.

To switch Iraq from a central planning to a market economy will require setting up a central bank and a modern banking system, backed by laws guaranteeing foreign investments.

"Iraq was very entrepreneurial before Saddam," said Goldman-Sachs vice president Robert Hormats. "Baghdad has a history of culture and trade. With the right kind of reforms, Iraq could emerge as an important financial and trading center."

But the country will first have to overcome enormous structural problems, not the least of which being a debt said to be around 60 billion dollars, not including the 200 billion for which it is being dunned for Gulf War damages.

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