Whatever form the new administration finally takes in Baghdad, Washington is clearly intent on setting an example for the rest of the region where western-type democracry is still no more than a desert mirage.

The joyous celebrations by the Iraqi people over the toppling of their dictator suggest no Arab regime, including those in the Gulf, is likely to survive long unless they can win solid popular backing, analysts said.

"The fall of Baghdad has shown that oppression and tyranny do not protect regimes ... Only the will of the people and their support can," Saudi political analyst Dawood al-Shurayan told AFP.

"But to achieve this, Arab regimes must make a compromise with their people. Our democracy must be improved with ballot boxes, real political participation and civil society institutions.

"Democracy has become the only way for regimes to cope with changes. Democracy is a tool for survival of regimes and nations," he added.

As early as February, US Secretary of State Colin Powell made it known that ousting Saddam Hussein's Baath regime was a beginning to fundamentally reshaping the Middle East in a positive way for the United States and its allies.

He told a congressional hearing that such an outcome was likely, particularly if, after a war in Iraq, progress could be achieved in forging peace between Israel and the Palestinians.

His comments dovetailed with those of other administration officials or pro-Republican commentators who believe a democratic pro-western regime in Baghdad would have a domino effect on the region.

Fingers have already been pointed at Syria, another hardline anti-Israeli Baath regime.

Tawfiq al-Qussayer of Riyadh's King Saud University believes that most Arab regimes only represent themselves and the only way for them to foil American "plots" is to change.

"I don't trust America. I don't believe they have come to spread democracy. They are here to implement a Zionist-neo-conservative agenda," Qussayer charged.

"Their (the regimes) chance is in undertaking real democratic reforms which would ward off American plots that may include military coups," he said.

"I believe that the future of Saudi Arabia lies in implementing speedy reforms leading to democracy," Qussayer added.

However, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal told a press conference Wednesday that democratization will not be a threat to the Middle East.

"Separation of the legislative, executive and judiciary powers will not create upheavals in the region ... The threat comes from guns and bombs ... Democracy never threatened any country, I don't see why it should threaten the Middle East," he said.

Three of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states practice a restricted form of parliamentary democracy through direct elections to various bodies.

But the biggest Gulf country Saudi Arabia only has an appointed "Shura" consultative Council and in all six states the ruling families concentrate real power in their own unelected hands.

Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz told a group of reformists who presented to him a "vision for constitutional reforms" in January that it is only a matter of time before domestic reforms are instituted in th kingdom, the world's oil powerhouse.

Reforms demanded included "developing the basic governance law towards constitutional reforms that will eventually achieve the state of institutions," according to Faleh.

The Shura council was set up in 1993 with 60 members appointed by King Fahd after calls for reform in the aftermath of the 1991 Gulf War. Membership was increased to 90 in 1997 and 120 in 2001.

"I believe that in order to protect ourselves from American pressure we must take the initiative. We have to be ahead of the US plans," said Shurayan, adding that each regime must be based on real popular support.

SPACE.WIRE