SPACE WIRE
French, German, Russian leaders seek to revive pre-war axis
PARIS (AFP) Apr 10, 2003
The French, Russian and German leaders will seek to revive their pre-war axis at a summit in Saint Petersburg Friday and Saturday, but with the United States and Britain flushed with military successes their ability to influence events in Iraq appears marginal.

Presidents Jacques Chirac and Vladimir Putin and Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who were the three leading opponents of the invasion of Iraq at the UN Security Council, were expected to reaffirm their insistence on the primacy of the United Nations in the country's post-war settlement.

UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan had also planned to attend the two-day meeting, but on Tuesday he cancelled a European tour intended to focus on a new administration in Iraq.

France, Russia and Germany fear that Washington will try to reduce the role of the United Nations to a minimum -- coordinating humanitarian aid and perhaps "endorsing" a US-appointed interim government -- thus further removing Iraq from the orbit of international authority.

While Chirac has insisted on a central role for the United Nations, US President George W. Bush spoke Monday only of a "vital" role -- a formulation which, while seen as a concession to British Prime Minister Tony Blair, also left plenty of room for interpretation.

France has made concerted efforts to patch up relations with Britain -- badly damaged in the run-up to the war -- in the hope that Blair can pressure Bush to allow an international administration in Iraq, but few observers believe Washington is in any mood to give way.

The influence of the pre-war peace camp of France, Russia and Germany has been severely damaged by the toppling of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and signs that US and British forces are being welcomed by many Iraqis as liberators.

While France insists that this in no way disproves its point that the war was illegal because it was without international sanction, facts on the ground are fast making this argument theoretical and its proponents irrelevant, analysts said.

"Four days after Bush and Blair met (in Northern Ireland), there are Chirac, Schroeder and Putin off to Saint Petersburg. One has to ask: who is moving in the real world?" Paul Kennedy, author of the best-selling The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, told Le Monde newspaper.

"Chirac has declared that the future of Iraq cannot be decided by just two nations. From the point of view of political sentiment, no doubt he is right. But is it in the real world?" he said.

According to some analysts, the repeated insistence by France and other countries on the UN's central role only confirms the suspicion in Washington that any new attempt to bring the issue of Iraq to the Security Council will again be thwarted by a veto.

The danger appeared to be confirmed by a senior French diplomat who told AFP on condition of anonymity: "We would like to avoid it, but we fear another confrontation at the UN."

Commentators said Chirac, Putin and Schroeder were united in their determination to prevent a "unipolar" world dominated by the United States, but another reason for their summit was a need for mutual reassurance amid fears that one or other of them might be wooed into the camp of the war victors.

Supporters of the Bush administration, such as the fiercely anti-Chirac Wall Street Journal newspaper, were scathing in their criticism of the Saint Petersburg meeting.

"These three leaders can protest all they want. The din from the celebrations in Iraq will inevitably drown out any pronouncements they might make. That is as it should be," the paper said.

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