"We are concerned about the short term. The war has come at a time when companies and tourism industries have been weakened by two years of difficulty," said Francesco Frangialli.

"If the war had been short, 2003 would not necessarily have been bad, we could have expected growth of 2.0 percent in international travel for the year, but now we don't know how things are going to go," he said.

Frangialli, in Rome for a European conference on protecting minors against sex tourism, admitted he was also concerned about the effects on international tourism of the deadly mystery pneumonia sweeping across the world from China.

Two Rome hotels announced this week they had turned away Chinese tour groups because of fears they could spread the disease, which has so far killed at least 79 people worldwide and caused nearly 2,500 to be hospitalised.

The Madrid-based WTO said the crisis period for international tourism began in mid-2001, and then worsened after the September 11 attacks in the United States, and related bombings in tourist centres like Djerba in Tunisia, Bali in Indonesia and Mombasa in Kenya.

Frangialli said the downturn had led to the loss of 70,000 jobs in the US airline sector alone.

"But we still have faith in the solidity of the industry because the need to travel is now too ingrained in our societies," said Frangialli.

He pointed to 3.0 percent growth in international travel achieved in 2002 and the relative health of the sector in the Middle East, despite the long-term security situation in the region.

SPACE.WIRE