Amid the techno-speak and boasts about a sustained pace of innovation, companies here conceded they had no idea when a recovery in information technology investment would come.

"What will it take to get people to buy? I don't know, but it will be a surprise," said Sun Microsystems chief executive Scott McNealy.

"You can never tell if you're at the peak spike or the bottom of the trough," he added.

"Any economist who tells you he can has nary a clue."

This year is expected to be the worst ever for the global information technology industry, said a survey by the International Data Corp., which predicted a 2.3 percent slump in 2002.

But the worst was over, the high-tech research firm said this week, and the 875 billion dollar worldwide industry was expected to recover with growth of more than five percent in 2003.

Conditions, however, were uncertain because of questions about a potential war in Iraq or other unknown events, IDC said, for the first offering an alternate "downside" forecast of two percent growth.

The number of exhibitors here plunged 30 percent from last year to 1,100,organizers at Key3Media said.

Visitor numbers failed to break the 100,000-mark, down from 125,000 in Comdex 2001.

High-technology heavyweights still sought to sate the appetite here for new gadgets.

Hewlett-Packard launched a new pocket personal computer, which it claimed was the thinnest and lightest on the market.

The new PC -- iPAQ Pocket PC h1910 -- is priced at 299 dollars and features Microsoft Corp's Windows for Pocket PC 2002 and Intel Corp's 200 MHz processors for accelerated multimedia and security.

Its debut coincided with the planned launch of Dell Computer Corp's latest hand-held computer -- the Dell Axim X5.

"Progress is made by those who believe that everything is possible," said Hewlett Packard chief executive Carly Fiorina.

Two days later, her group, which bought computer maker Compaq in May, posted a better-than-expected 390 million dollar net profit in the three months to October.

"We delivered solid results in a tough market," Fiorina said. But the outlook was unclear, she added, and the company was not counting on holiday buying.

Microsoft's founder, billionaire Bill Gates, acknowledged the problems.

"There's a number of things that have made this a tough year," he told participants, citing weak business investment and "very challenging" economy that made it critical for companies to push through advances.

Major tasks ahead included ensuring privacy and security, expanding broadband Internet useage and properly managing increasingly-complex systems, Gates said.

"In fact, looking at this last year, I think, reminds all of us that this industry has had its share of surprises, it's share of ups and downs," Gates added.

"Innovation is going to create opportunities for all of us in the years ahead."

SPACE.WIRE