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SHAKE AND BLOW
West African archipelago hit in rare hurricane strike
by Staff Writers
Bissau (AFP) Aug 31, 2015


Climate ups odds of 'grey swan' superstorms
Paris (AFP) Aug 31, 2015 - Climate change will boost the odds up to 14-fold for extremely rare, hard-to-predict tropical cyclones for parts of Australia, the United States and Dubai by 2100, researchers said Monday.

The research, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, used a new approach to predict the frequency and intensity of rare superstorms dubbed "grey swans".

They focused on the high-risk coastal regions of Cairns in northeast Australia, Tampa in south Florida, and Dubai, and used an innovative statistical method to compensate for the lack of historical records.

The analysis by Ning Lin of Princeton University and a colleague showed that surges generated by grey swans striking Tampa or Cairns could reach six metres (20 feet), and four metres for Dubai.

The damage caused by grey swans, as with all cyclones and hurricanes, is mostly from storm surges, which can be enhanced by higher water levels and tides.

Hurricane Katrina, which left 1,500 people dead and caused some $75 billion (68 billion euros) in damages in 2005, exemplified the destructive potential of such surges.

Even though tropical storms have never been recorded in the Gulf, the researchers found, local conditions suggested there was potential for a massive "once-in-10,000-year" storm.

When climate change -- and future increases in sea level -- were added to the mix, the chances of a grey swan increased manyfold.

For Tampa, for example, the interval for a freak storm -- based on a "business-as-usual" scenario of unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions -- drops from one every 10,000 years today, to about one every 2,100 years by mid-century, and one every 1,600 years by 2100.

"That means that the likelihood of such a storm in any given year will be between around four and 14 times higher at the end of the century than it is today," Lin said.

The UN's climate science panel says sea levels will rise 26 to 98 centimetres (10 to 39 inches) by century's end.

The West African archipelago of Cape Verde was pounded by powerful winds and heavy rain on Monday in a rare hurricane strike, local officials said.

Named Fred, the storm packed winds of up to 140 kilometres per hour (85 miles per hour), according to Cape Verde's interior ministry and the US National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Winds uprooted trees on several islands, telecommunications and electricity were affected in some regions and the national airline cancelled flights, but there were no reports of any casualties, according to emergency services on Cape Verde reached from Bissau, the capital of Guinea Bissau.

The storm "made landfall at 8am (0900 GMT) 35 kilometres south of Rabil," a town on the northern island of Boa Vista, said Idilton Briton, a senior official at Cape Verde's civil defence.

Boa Vista and Sal, a neighbouring island, were the most affected of the country's islands, he said.

In a statement released on Facebook, the interior ministry said a "state of maximum alert" had been declared.

"As of 3.45pm (1645 GMT), (the storm) was located nearly 30 km north-northeast of the island of Sao Nicolau," it said.

"With maximum winds of 140 kph, (Fred) is moving in a northwesterly direction at a speed of 19 kph, and should pass by slightly north of the islands of Sao Vicente and Santo Antao during the night."

The Miami-based NHC warned the hurricane could unleash a storm surge accompanied by large and dangerous waves near the coast.

Fred, a category one hurricane on the five-point Saffir-Simpson scale, also could dump up to 25 centimetres (10 inches) of rain on the islands, it said.

"According to the official Atlantic tropical cyclone record, which begins in 1851, Fred is the first hurricane to pass through the Cape Verde Islands since 1892," the NHC added.

Fred is expected to weaken gradually starting Tuesday as it moves further out to sea, the NHC said.

Cape Verde, a former Portuguese colony lying around 500 km west of Senegal, comprises 10 volcanic islands, nine of which are inhabited.

Fred is the second hurricane of the Atlantic season.

Earlier this month, Hurricane Danny caused a tropical storm across a handful of popular Caribbean destinations but was downgraded to a tropical depression before it could do much damage.

Just days ago, tropical storm Erika left at least 20 people dead and dozens missing as it swept over the tiny Caribbean island nation of Dominica.

The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, sees peak activity in September.

But experts have said there was a 90-percent chance this year's season would be less active than usual.

aye-ode-du/ri/psr

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SHAKE AND BLOW
Tropical storm kills at least 12 in 'badly beaten' Dominica
Roseau, Dominica (AFP) Aug 28, 2015
Tropical Storm Erika killed at least 12 people as it swept over the small island of Dominica, its prime minister said Friday, noting his country had been "badly beaten." Local media, meanwhile, put the death toll at 35 as rescuers made their way to the village of Petite Savanne deemed the hardest hit by the powerful weather system. "I can confirm 12 but the number may be higher," Prim ... read more


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