Subscribe free to our newsletters via your
. 24/7 Space News .




NUKEWARS
US experts skeptical over report on China nuclear force
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) Dec 2, 2011


Arms control experts are dismissing a report by US university students that suggests China's nuclear arsenal may be much larger than previously estimated, saying the research is shoddy and unreliable.

The unconventional study by students at Georgetown University, under the supervision of a former Pentagon official, examines China's vast network of tunnels for storing missiles and concludes the country could have up to 3,000 nuclear warheads, far higher than the current estimates of roughly 250.

The 363-page study has not been published but it has been circulated at the Pentagon and a Washington Post article Wednesday revealed its findings, which attracted global media attention.

But experts who track nuclear weapons and China's arsenal in particular slammed the report's methods, and a Pentagon official said there were no plans to alter the US government's estimate of China's arsenal.

"China has not produced enough fissile material to produce 3,000 nuclear weapons," said Hans Kristensen, director of the nuclear information project at the Federation of American Scientists.

"Nor do they have delivery systems for so many weapons. It's just inaccurate on all fronts, that estimate," he told AFP.

The report has been reviewed by the Defense Department but has not led to a revision of estimates on the size of China's nuclear force, said a senior defense official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

"The findings of the report have been noted," said the official. But "there is no change in our assessment."

The study, which was overseen by Professor Phillip Karber, who held senior posts at the Pentagon, combed through Internet-based sources such as Google Earth, blogs and military journals.

Its sources range from a fictionalized Chinese TV show to a 400-page manual produced by the Second Artillery Corps, which oversees China's strategic weapons, according to the Post.

Kristensen and other experts said the report's suggestion that China could have a massive arsenal of thousands of warheads is based on outdated and dubious sources.

"You cannot extrapolate from old data," he said.

Gregory Kulacki, a senior analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists who follows China's strategic and space programs, said the report's assertions on the size of Beijing's nuclear force were based mainly on Chinese blog posts.

He charged the report failed to cite the original source of the larger estimate, which he alleged is an article published in a Hong Kong magazine -- not an official Chinese government document as Karber maintains.

"This is not competent scholarship." Kulacki wrote Thursday on the Union of Concerned Scientists' website.

"Worse still, neither Karber, nor his students, took the time to find and evaluate the original source of this claim, which is an article published in a Hong Kong magazine called 'The Trend.'"

Jeffrey Lewis of the Center for Non-proliferation studies at Middlebury College, has previously dismissed speculation that Beijing could have thousands of warheads, citing declassified US estimates of Chinese nuclear material.

The Georgetown report also attempts to shed light on China's secret network of underground tunnels, and includes images and accounts of a "missile train" and disguised passenger rail cars to move Chinas long-range missiles, according to the Post.

Kristensen said China's underground network dates back to the 1950s and that it is no secret the country has sought to safeguard its arsenal from attack.

"That's something countries do and China does it too," he said.

He added that the report had "some really serious problems with satellite interpretation."

As an example, Kristensen pointed to the report's description of an alleged deployment site for a new ballistic missile in southern China.

"It's not a missile base at all. It looks to be a cluster of storage facilities for military ammunition," he said.

A large network of underground facilities would be in keeping with China's relatively small nuclear force, as Beijing would want to ensure its warheads survived an initial attack, he said.

A Pentagon report to Congress this year noted China had possibly 5,000 kilometers (3,000 miles) of tunnels and said occasional disclosures of information about the underground network could be a way for Beijing to "send signals on the credibility of its limited nuclear arsenal."

Karber, the Georgetown professor, maintains that the report is a success because it has sparked debate about the size of China's nuclear force.

"I dont have the slightest idea how many nuclear weapons China really has, but neither does anyone else in the arms control community," Karber told the Post. "Thats the problem with China -- no one really knows except them."

.


Related Links
Learn about nuclear weapons doctrine and defense at SpaceWar.com
Learn about missile defense at SpaceWar.com
All about missiles at SpaceWar.com
Learn about the Superpowers of the 21st Century at SpaceWar.com






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle








NUKEWARS
Israelis support nuclear-free Mideast: poll
Washington (AFP) Dec 1, 2011
A strong majority of Israeli Jews support a Middle East where neither Iran nor Israel nor any other country has nuclear weapons, according to a poll published on Thursday. "By a ratio of two to one, Israelis support an agreement that would make the Middle East a nuclear weapon free zone, including Iran and Israel," said the poll published by the Saban Center for Middle East Policy. They ... read more


NUKEWARS
Schafer Corp Signs Licensing Agreement with MoonDust Technologies

Russia wants to focus on Moon if Mars mission fails

Flying over the three-dimensional Moon

LRO Camera Team Releases High Resolution Global Topographic Map of Moon

NUKEWARS
ESA gives up bids to contact stranded Russian space probe

Microscopic worms could hold the key to living life on Mars

Mars Science Laboratory Lifts Off Protected by Lockheed Martin-Built Aeroshell

Veteran Mars Researcher Says Curiosity Spacecraft Can Confirm Viking Detected Life

NUKEWARS
Ugandan works on space project from mother's backyard

Nanosail-D Sails Home

Dutch astronaut's cheesy request

Looking for a Space Job

NUKEWARS
China post office offers letters from space

15 patents granted for Chinese space docking technology

China plans major effort in pursuing manned space technology

Tiangong-1 orbiter enters long-term operation management

NUKEWARS
Growing Knowledge in Space

MDA to extend its services to support Canadarm2 and Dextre for ISS

FLEX-ible Insight Into Flame Behavior

Satellite junk no threat to space station crew

NUKEWARS
Europe's third ATV is loaded with cargo for its 2012 launch by Arianespace

Assembly milestone reached with Ariane 5 to launch next ATV

Russia launches Chinese satellite

AsiaSat 7 Spacecraft Separation Successfully Completed

NUKEWARS
Habitable Does not Mean 'Earth-Like'

Exo planet count tops 700

Giant planet ejected from the solar system

Three New Planets and a Mystery Object Discovered Outside Our Solar System

NUKEWARS
Northrop Grumman Awarded MASTER Ground Processing Contract

Samsung tablet ban extended in Australia

Smartphone addicts starting to feel the pain

ATK Awarded $20 Million UltraFlex Solar Array Contract from Orbital




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2014 - Space Media Network. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement