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CLIMATE SCIENCE
UN climate blueprint agreed in Geneva
By Mariette LE ROUX
Geneva (AFP) Feb 13, 2015


Crunch issues for climate negotiators
Geneva (AFP) Feb 13, 2015 - With fewer than 300 days until the long-awaited signing of a global pact to curb climate change, the world's nations remain deeply divided on fundamental issues.

- The goal -

Most parties agree that overall global warming must be limited to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-Industrial Revolution levels, though small island states at highest risk of climate change-induced sea level rise want a lower ceiling of 1.5 C.

What parties don't agree on at all, is how to get there.

One proposal in the framework text approved in Geneva on Friday is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40-70 percent from 2010 levels by 2050 and near-zero emissions by 2100, as advised the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Other options see deeper cuts, sooner, while some would set no numerical target.

- Who does what? -

The issue that permeates everything, "differentiation" is about how to share responsibility between rich and developing nations for cutting climate-damaging greenhouse gas emissions.

Developing nations want rich economies that are bigger polluters to shoulder a bigger burden. Wealthy countries, in turn, point to the rise of emerging giants like China and India as massive emitters of carbon from burning fossil fuel to drive their explosive growth.

- Money -

Developing nations want the 2015 Paris pact to contain a commitment from rich nations on financing and other assistance for the costly switch to greener energy, and for projects to help threatened communities adapt to unavoidable global warming-induced risk.

But rich countries are loathe to take on binding long-term engagements in an economically unstable world with fast-changing national circumstances.

- The legalities -

Will the pact be a protocol that needs to be ratified by national parliaments, or a mere political declaration? To what degree will a country's emissions target be binding under international law and failure subject to censure or penalties?

Will there be a mechanism for measuring, reporting and verifying a country's actions?

These crucial questions all await answers, suggesting a bumpy road to a universal agreement in Paris in December.

Climate change: Key dates on the way to Paris accord
Geneva (AFP) Feb 13, 2015 - Here are key dates leading up to the Conference of Parties (COP) in Paris in December that must adopt a global pact on curbing climate change.

A blueprint was agreed in Geneva on Friday by 195 countries gathered under the umbrella of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

- First quarter of 2015: Deadline for those nations "ready to do so" to submit pledges for cutting carbon emissions. These commitments are at the heart of the drive to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) over pre-industrial levels.

- May 31, 2015: Deadline for making available to parties the official draft accord in all the languages of the UN.

- June 1-11, 2015: Annual, half-yearly UNFCCC meeting in Bonn.

- July 7-10, 2015: The UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) hosts an international conference on the latest science of climate change.

- August 31-September 4, 2015: Third round of formal UNFCCC talks for the year, in Bonn.

- October 19-23, 2015: Fourth round of formal UNFCCC talks in Bonn.

- October/November: Ministerial-level "pre-COP" discussions (date and venue to be confirmed)

- By November 1, 2015: UNFCCC secretariat to prepare a report on the aggregate effect of countries' emissions-curbing pledges on the 2 C goal.

- November 30-December 11: The UNFCCC's 21st Conference of Parties, or COP 21, to be held in the Paris suburb of Le Bourget.

Negotiators in Geneva approved a climate-rescue blueprint on Friday, a symbolic milestone in the fraught UN process that must culminate in a universal pact in December.

Though described as unwieldy and filled with drastically opposing views, the 86-page draft plan for limiting manmade global warming was welcomed by parties and observers alike as a crucial confidence-building step.

But they also pointed to a heavy workload ahead to streamline the text without alienating any party.

"We now have a formal negotiating text, which contains the views and concerns of all countries," said Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) guiding the process.

"The text was constructed in full transparency. This means that although it has become longer, countries are now fully aware of each other's positions."

Assembled over the past six days, the framework was gavelled through to applause from delegates.

It will guide negotiations in the months leading to the November 30-December 11 UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP) in Paris.

Ever since the 2009 Copenhagen conference failed to deliver a world agreement, the 195 nations gathered under the UNFCCC have been working on a new project for adoption by the end of this year.

The pact must enter into force by 2020 to further the UN goal of limiting warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-Industrial Revolution levels.

Scientists warn that at current greenhouse gas emission trends, Earth is on track for double that, or more -- a recipe for catastrophic droughts, storms, floods and rising sea levels.

"We leave Geneva with a lengthy text to work on in the coming months, but it importantly reflects the views and enjoys support from all parties," said Ahmed Sareer, who represents the Alliance of Small Island States most at risk of climate-change induced sea level rise.

"After years of false starts and broken promises, restoring ownership and trust in the process is no small achievement."

Negotiators emerged from the last COP in Lima last December with a hard-fought framework text that remained hotly contested.

The February 8-13 Geneva talks, a special session added to this year's official UN climate agenda, was tasked with "streamlining" the Lima document.

- 'Huge lump of clay' -

Instead, the meeting's mandate was changed early on to seeking universal endorsement of the text, which more than doubled since Sunday until all countries were satisfied their views were included.

"We now have a huge lump of clay and countries must start to sculpt it into something beautiful which we can be proud of in Paris," said Mohamed Adow, senior climate advisor for Christian Aid.

"The tone of the negotiations here have been very optimistic but that's because we were only putting things in. The real fights will come when we start to take things out."

The Geneva text lists a variety of alternative approaches on most issues -- often reflecting country positions that diametrically oppose one another.

"We would have wished for more advancement" in Geneva, Elina Bardram, head of the EU delegation, told AFP.

"The introduction of missing elements in the text is an achievement, but it does mean that the tough negotiations lie ahead of us and we are running out of time. We need a step change between now and Paris."

At the very core of the pact, countries remain deeply divided on the issue of "differentiation" -- how to share responsibility for emissions cuts between rich and poor nations.

Developing countries also want their developed counterparts to commit to long-term climate financing, and compensation for climate change-induced losses and damages suffered.

"Traditional fault lines have not yet been breached," said green group WWF's head of delegation Tasneem Essop.

And Alden Meyer of the Union of Concerned Scientists said the crunch issues must be tackled by ministers in the coming months so as to give negotiators political guidance.

"When you get into that end-game process toward the end of the year it is essential that there only be a handful of remaining political issues to be resolved."

The meeting's co-chairman Daniel Reifsnyder announced that two text-streamlining meetings will be held in Bonn this year in addition to the traditional June session: one from August 31 to September 4, and the other from October 19-23.

Climate ambassador Laurence Tubiana of France, which will take over the presidency of the talks in November, added there would be several informal discussions throughout the year to find common ground.

"We don't want any nasty surprises in Paris, so we have a lot of work to do," she told AFP.


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