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SOLAR SCIENCE
Solar storm heads Earth's way after double sun blasts
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) Sept 11, 2014


Solar flares speeding toward Earth's atmosphere
Washington (UPI) Sep 12, 2014 -Solar radiation is hurtling toward Earth, and scientists say it's likely to hit the Earth's atmosphere starting today and continue through the weekend. While humans will be perfectly safe from the radiation, the barrage of solar storms could disrupt satellite communications and even knock out power.

The sun regularly shoots out solar flares and bursts of radiation known as coronal mass ejections. The sun featured a series of flares and ejections on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, and now the mass of emitted radiation is making its way here, to Earth.

NASA confirms one of the two flares was an X1.6 class solar flare -- a flare of the most intense variety. In a press release on Thursday, NASA said two coronal mass ejections had emerged from same region of the sun that produced two flares the day prior.

Coronal mass ejections, or CMEs, and solar flares are similar and often occur together -- both are eruptions of radiation from the sun. But whereas a flare is a more contained leap of radiation, CMEs are typically larger and involve a more significant separation of solar material from the sun's corona.

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center said some of the radiation had already begun hitting the Earth's upper atmosphere on Friday, and that additional solar storms would continue to arrive overnight and into Saturday.

"A G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm Watch is still in effect for September 13th due to the combined influence of this CME and the one projected to arrive late on the 12th," officials warned in the forecast.

Though scientists work hard to keep tabs on the strength and speed of solar storms, predicting the effects of the cosmic radiation remains difficult.

"This is a pretty strong solar storm, and we just won't know until it gets here," meteorologist Chad Myers told CNN.

But while the storm may be worrisome for astronauts and the operators of electrical grids, it's welcome news for those hoping to catch a glimpse of the so-called Northern Lights. Solar storms create beautiful auroras in the night sky for those watching from near the poles.

Two big explosions on the surface of the sun will cause a moderate to strong geomagnetic storm on Earth in the coming days, possibly disrupting radio and satellite communications, scientists said Thursday.

The unusual storm is not likely to wreak havoc with personal electronics but may cause colorful nighttime auroras, or displays of the Northern Lights, late Friday and early Saturday.

"We don't expect any unmanageable impacts to national infrastructure from these solar events at this time but we are watching these events closely," said Thomas Berger, director of the Space Weather Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"More pleasantly, we do expect these storm levels to cause significant auroral displays across much of the northern US on Friday night," he said.

The storm began with a minor solar flare on Monday, followed by a major X-class flare -- the strongest classification -- on Wednesday at around 1745 GMT.

Both eruptions came from the same sunspot near the center of the solar disk, and both produced significant coronal mass ejections, or CMEs, of magnetized plasma headed toward Earth.

On a scale of one to five, the resulting geomagnetic storm should be "moderate to strong," rating a G2 or G3, Berger said.

"It is fairly rare for two CMEs of this magnitude to come in close succession like this," he told reporters.

"Because of this we cannot rule out higher storm levels perhaps as high as G4 or severe geomagnetic storming, particularly in the polar regions."

The National Weather Service has alerted power grid operators and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, just in case.

The strength of the storm pales in comparison to major geomagnetic storms of years past, such as the 1859 Carrington event that wiped out power across a swath of Canada.

It is also weaker than a near-miss geomagnetic storm in July 2012 that NASA scientists said could have knocked Earth's technology back at least 150 years.

That storm didn't cause mass damage because the fast-moving energized particles were not directed straight at Earth.

"The events that just occurred over the last 24 hours were Earth-directed, they are just not that big," said William Murtagh, program coordinator at the Space Weather Prediction Center.

"If we had a very big storm -- and this is not it -- that produced big problems with the power grid, that would be our biggest concern."

Nor is the radiation caused by these flares presently enough to raise concern for astronauts at the International Space Station, experts said.

But given the nature of CMEs with their internal magnetic fields, scientists are not yet sure exactly what will happen when they bounce off the Earth's protective shield.

"The sun just shot out a magnet that is going to interact with another magnet, the Earth's magnetic field," explained Murtagh.

"And how they couple together is going to be critical in determining how intense the geomagnetic storm is going to be."

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