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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Rare ray of hope in UN climate talks
By Mariette LE ROUX
Geneva (AFP) Feb 14, 2015


Crunch issues for climate negotiators
Geneva (AFP) Feb 13, 2015 - With fewer than 300 days until the long-awaited signing of a global pact to curb climate change, the world's nations remain deeply divided on fundamental issues.

- The goal -

Most parties agree that overall global warming must be limited to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-Industrial Revolution levels, though small island states at highest risk of climate change-induced sea level rise want a lower ceiling of 1.5 C.

What parties don't agree on at all, is how to get there.

One proposal in the framework text approved in Geneva on Friday is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40-70 percent from 2010 levels by 2050 and near-zero emissions by 2100, as advised the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Other options see deeper cuts, sooner, while some would set no numerical target.

- Who does what? -

The issue that permeates everything, "differentiation" is about how to share responsibility between rich and developing nations for cutting climate-damaging greenhouse gas emissions.

Developing nations want rich economies that are bigger polluters to shoulder a bigger burden. Wealthy countries, in turn, point to the rise of emerging giants like China and India as massive emitters of carbon from burning fossil fuel to drive their explosive growth.

- Money -

Developing nations want the 2015 Paris pact to contain a commitment from rich nations on financing and other assistance for the costly switch to greener energy, and for projects to help threatened communities adapt to unavoidable global warming-induced risk.

But rich countries are loathe to take on binding long-term engagements in an economically unstable world with fast-changing national circumstances.

- The legalities -

Will the pact be a protocol that needs to be ratified by national parliaments, or a mere political declaration? To what degree will a country's emissions target be binding under international law and failure subject to censure or penalties?

Will there be a mechanism for measuring, reporting and verifying a country's actions?

These crucial questions all await answers, suggesting a bumpy road to a universal agreement in Paris in December.

Climate change: Key dates on the way to Paris accord
Geneva (AFP) Feb 13, 2015 - Here are key dates leading up to the Conference of Parties (COP) in Paris in December that must adopt a global pact on curbing climate change.

A blueprint was agreed in Geneva on Friday by 195 countries gathered under the umbrella of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

- First quarter of 2015: Deadline for those nations "ready to do so" to submit pledges for cutting carbon emissions. These commitments are at the heart of the drive to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) over pre-industrial levels.

- May 31, 2015: Deadline for making available to parties the official draft accord in all the languages of the UN.

- June 1-11, 2015: Annual, half-yearly UNFCCC meeting in Bonn.

- July 7-10, 2015: The UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) hosts an international conference on the latest science of climate change.

- August 31-September 4, 2015: Third round of formal UNFCCC talks for the year, in Bonn.

- October 19-23, 2015: Fourth round of formal UNFCCC talks in Bonn.

- October/November: Ministerial-level "pre-COP" discussions (date and venue to be confirmed)

- By November 1, 2015: UNFCCC secretariat to prepare a report on the aggregate effect of countries' emissions-curbing pledges on the 2 C goal.

- November 30-December 11: The UNFCCC's 21st Conference of Parties, or COP 21, to be held in the Paris suburb of Le Bourget.

The detente achieved at UN talks that concluded Friday with a framework for a world climate pact is only temporary, achieved by kicking the difficult decisions down the road, parties and observers say.

But it also generated a degree of optimism rarely observed in the tense process -- a sense of common purpose which many hope will bolster negotiators in the months to come.

"I think this has been a very important meeting from a process point of view and a psychological point of view," said Union of Concerned Scientists analyst Alden Meyer.

He pointed to broad consultations held with country representatives by the talks' joint chairmen ahead of the six-day session in Geneva -- one of four official meetings this year to prepare for the December conference in Paris that must adopt a universal climate pact.

"That has paid off. People felt consulted, they felt listened to, they understood the process," he added.

"This is the parties' text, they own it now."

An official framework text prepared for the 2009 Copenhagen climate conference, which failed to produce an agreement, had exceeded 300 pages and was challenged by a number of alternative drafts.

The 86-page Geneva blueprint, the product of years of negotiations, seems manageable by comparison, and represents the first-ever proposal with buy-in from all the world's nations.

"At this early stage, the palpable positive spirit coming out of Geneva is a much better measure of progress than the current length of the negotiating text," said Jennifer Morgan, climate director at the World Resources Institute think-tank.

The document lists a variety of alternative approaches on most issues -- often reflecting country positions that diametrically oppose one another.

It more than doubled from a 37-page draft compiled at a conference in Lima last December, with parties allowed to add items until they were satisfied all their views were represented.

"It's a bit unwieldy in the sense that they accepted every proposal that was made with no discussion or vetting or criteria, but that's what they had to do to assure parties that every idea that they wanted in the draft legal text that's going to be the basis for Paris was in there," said Meyer.

This, in turn, was taken to indicate a desire by all countries to be party to the final pact, though its form and content have yet to be determined and a lot of difficult editing now lies ahead.

"After years of false starts and broken promises, restoring ownership and trust in the process is no small achievement and I think we have come a long way toward doing that," said Ahmed Sareer, an envoy of the Alliance of Small Island States at highest risk of climate change-induced sea level rise.

UN climate chief Christiana Figueres, who oversees the negotiations, described such "trust-building" as the most valuable resource in the process to draft a plan for limiting manmade global warming.

"Optimism, trust, good mood is much more conducive to coming to terms with complicated issues," she said of the road ahead.

- Spirit of Geneva -

The Like-Minded Developing Countries group, which includes China, India, Saudi Arabia, several African, Asian and South American nations, said the talks had been "open, transparent and party-driven" and welcomed the result.

Europe said it would have wanted more progress on streamlining the text, but agreed the week had been "an important and necessary step for securing a negotiating text," according to EU delegation head Elina Bardram.

There had been "useful conversations with our partners in the corridors, in the margins, that will enhance common understanding," she added.

Parties will need all the goodwill they can muster for the last 10 months of negotiations for a universal pact seeking to limit warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-Industrial Revolution levels.

Christian Aid's senior climate adviser Mohamed Adow noted: "The tone of the negotiations here have been very optimistic but that's because we were only putting things in.

"The real fights will come when we start to take things out."

At the very core of the intended pact, countries remain deeply divided on the issue of "differentiation" -- how to share responsibility for emissions cuts between rich and poor nations.

Developing countries also want their developed counterparts to commit to long-term climate financing, and compensation for climate change-induced loss and damage.

Yet co-chairman Daniel Reifsnyder closed the meeting on a hopeful tone.

"May the Spirit of Geneva remain with you and guide you all on the road to Paris," he told delegates.


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CLIMATE SCIENCE
UN climate blueprint agreed in Geneva
Geneva (AFP) Feb 13, 2015
Negotiators in Geneva approved a climate-rescue blueprint on Friday, a symbolic milestone in the fraught UN process that must culminate in a universal pact in December. Though described as unwieldy and filled with drastically opposing views, the 86-page draft plan for limiting manmade global warming was welcomed by parties and observers alike as a crucial confidence-building step. But t ... read more


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