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NUKEWARS
Outside View: Iran and nuclear weapons
by Harlan Ullman
Washington (UPI) Nov 16, 2011


Deal near on IAEA Iran resolution: diplomats
Vienna (AFP) Nov 16, 2011 - World powers were close to overcoming their differences late Wednesday on what message the UN atomic watchdog will send to Iran when its board of governors meets Thursday, diplomats said.

Diplomats to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna were "close but not there yet" to agreeing on a resolution amenable to all the main powers including Russia and China, one Western envoy told AFP.

Another said they were "cautiously optimistic," although time differences meant that it would most likely not be until Thursday morning, just before the meeting starts, that a deal is reached.

"This is going to go right down to the wire," the envoy told AFP.

"The resolution will call on Iran to intensify dialogue with the agency and comply fully with its obligations," the first diplomat said on condition of anonymity, calling the discussions "intense."

"It also calls on the director general (of the IAEA, Yukiya Amano) to report in March on the status of the resolution," the envoy added, saying diplomats were "guardedly optimistic" on reaching a deal.

Last week the IAEA came the closest yet to accusing Iran outright of seeking to develop nuclear weapons, in a hard-hitting report immediately rejected by Tehran as "baseless."

Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said on Wednesday Tehran would send "an analytical letter with logical and rational responses" to the agency, which it has accused of being "politicised."

Washington, Paris and London jumped on the IAEA report as justification to tighten the screws further on Iran, already under four rounds of Security Council sanctions and additional US and European Union restrictions.

But Beijing, which relies heavily on Iranian oil imports, and Moscow, which also has close commercial ties, completing Iran's only nuclear power plant, have been far more cautious.

If the two sides fail to see eye to eye, one option could be an IAEA resolution passed without Russian and Chinese support, although diplomats are keen to avoid such a potentially damaging split.

The 35-nation board of the IAEA was due to gather at its Vienna headquarters for a two-day meeting starting on Thursday at 0930 GMT. The talks will also cover Syria and its suspected covert reactor bombed by Israel in 2007.

Last week, the United Nation's International Atomic Energy Agency released an assessment of Iran's nuclear programs. While not overly alarmist, the report warned that, based on inputs from nearly a dozen different national intelligence agencies, Iran was developing programs in virtually all categories essential for production of nuclear weapons as well missile delivery systems. Iran quickly refuted the report denying any nuclear weapons ambitions.

Some immediately and predictably declared the situation apocalyptic resurfacing arguments for military action to prevent Tehran from acquiring the bomb. Russia and China were predictably more muted. And the Obama administration is wisely keeping its counsel as it reviews its options.

Clearly, few people in their right mind would prefer to see Iran with a nuclear weapon although China might not be entirely displeased with how such an event might shift America's attention from the Pacific back to the Persian Gulf and Middle East.

The reactions of Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperative Council among many others are laden with uncertainty and risk not the least of which is possible nuclear weapons proliferation.

Yet, before panic sets in, a bit of history provides an important context regardless of whether Iran does field nuclear weapons.

The most recent case studies are North Korea and Iraq. North Korea detonated, if not a weapon, certainly nuclear devices. Yet, has the geostrategic balance been affected? The answer isn't much.

Eight years ago, the United States attacked Iraq to keep Saddam Hussein from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Then national security adviser Condoleezza Rice said she didn't wish to be proven wrong by a nuclear mushroom cloud suddenly materializing over an American city.

In the first case, the consequences were far less than expected. And in the second, our intelligence was dead wrong.

Iran is neither North Korea nor Iraq. Still, a little more history is helpful before we embark on kinetic policies toward Iran.

In the late 1940's, the United States had similar fears of the Soviet Union acquiring nuclear weapons. Pre-emptive strikes were part of that debate. In fact, the then commandant of the prestigious National War College in Washington was fired for arguing publicly for a preventative attack. Instead, policies of deterrence and containment proved preferable and effective after Moscow got the bomb in 1949.

In the early 1960's, this debate was repeated over China's nuclear ambitions. China exploded its first weapon in 1964. War was avoided. And China has fortunately moved from the enemy column, one hopes permanently.

That said, what bold actions might be considered to avert Iranian nuclear proliferation? A grand bargain with Russia is one such possibility Suppose Russia were able to convince, cajole or coerce Iran into abandoning all nuclear weapons ambitions through a transparent and verifiable regime perhaps through controlling critical supply chain parts and systems or other means. Obviously, verifiability must be absolutely assured. And the strategic bargaining chip could be U.S. and NATO ballistic missile defense plans (the European Phased Adopted Approach) for defending the alliance in Europe that Russia so vehemently opposes.

The EPAA was designed explicitly to defend NATO from a potential Iranian nuclear ballistic missile threat. Should Russian convince Iran to abandon its nuclear weapons programs, the need for these defenses would evaporate. If conditions changed, as the EPAA relies on readily transportable land based radar systems and SM-3 missiles, many sea-based, defenses could be deployed quickly assuming the basic command and control architecture had been put in place.

Second and possibly through Track II, non-official diplomacy, the United States could quietly explore containment and deterrent options with Britain and France and possibly Russia and China as nuclear powers and with regional countries such as Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. Israel should be part of this quiet diplomacy.

Interestingly, an Iranian decision to develop nuclear weapons could force these regional powers into a closer embrace with the United States and NATO rather than embarking on nuclear weapons programs of their own.

Third, far closer examination of both Iranian views of nuclear weapons including doctrine, command, control, security and the rest and of the supply chain for vital parts and systems crucial to the enrichment of uranium in particular must be carried out. For example, Iran's centrifuges depend on magnetic bearings that are quickly worn out by the high speeds needed to enrich uranium. If supplies could be restricted, that would surely delay and even defer acquiring nuclear weapons.

Whether Iran decides to acquire nuclear weapons or not -- and to do so covertly or openly -- are open questions. From a Western perception, Iran's keeping the nuclear option open may make the most sense. Whether Iranians see it that way is unclear.

But rather than panic, history sets a context. So does bold thinking. Let us exercise both.

(Harlan Ullman is Chairman of the Killowen Group, which advises leaders of government and business, and senior adviser at Washington's Atlantic Council.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

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Related Links
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