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NUKEWARS
Outside View: Iran
by Harlan Ullman
Washington (UPI) Apr 21, 2010


Iran denies plans to develop US-hitting missiles
Tehran (AFP) April 21, 2010 - Iranian Defence Minister Ahmad Vahidi denied on Wednesday the Islamic republic is planning to develop ballistic missiles capable of striking arch-foe the United States, as alleged by Washington. "We have no such plans," Vahidi told the official IRNA news agency, describing the allegations as "part of the enemy's psychological warfare." Vahidi was reacting to Tuesday comments by a senior US official James Miller, principal deputy undersecretary of defence for policy, who told a senate hearing Iran could by 2015 develop missiles that could strike the US.

Miller added that his assessment assumed "foreign assistance" to enable Iran to improve its missile technology. A report last year from the US Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Centre had postulated that Iran could build an intercontinental ballistic missile that could hit US soil by 2015-2018, if it received outside help. Analysts say Iran's Safir (Ambassador) space launch vehicle, which Tehran put into orbit in February 2009, has the potential to be converted into a long-range missile.

Vahidi, however, said Wednesday Iran was producing an air defence system equipped with aerial radar, and a domestically produced missile having a range of 40 kilometres (25 miles) and an altitude of 20 kilometres. Washington closely follows Iran's missile programme and has cited threats from Tehran and North Korea as the main impetus for building missile defence systems for the United States and its allies. The US administration also accuses Tehran of a clandestine effort to build nuclear weapons. Iran vehemently denies this.

Middle East peace would thwart Iran cynicism : Jones
Washington (AFP) April 21, 2010 - White House national security chief James Jones Wednesday said that making peace in the Middle East would stop Iran "cynically" using the conflict to deflect attention from its nuclear program. He also called on today's leaders in the region to show the courage and leadership of leaders like late Egyptian president Anwar Sadat, late Jordanian king Hussein and ex-Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin. Jones, a retired general who is President Barack Obama's national security advisor, said a two-state solution between Israelis and the Palestinians was in the interests of each side, the United States, and the world. "Advancing this peace would also help prevent Iran from cynically shifting attention away from its failures to meet its obligations," Jones said in prepared remarks to a dinner in Washington, released by the White House.

Some observers say the Israeli government, currently locked in a showdown over settlement building with the Obama White House, views the threat from Iran's nuclear program as more of a security priority than the Palestinian question. Jones also addressed his remarks to leaders throughout the Middle East, suggesting that all sides must take political risks to break the current deadlock. "It is time for all leaders in the region -- Israeli, Palestinian, and Arab -- to support efforts for peace." "It is time for today's leaders to demonstrate the courage and leadership of Anwar Sadat, King Hussein, and Yitzhak Rabin." Sadat, who signed the Camp David peace accords with Israel, was assassinated in 1981. Rabin, who signed the Oslo accords with the Palestinians, was shot dead by an Israeli extremist in 1995. King Hussein died of cancer in 1999.

Despite current tensions with Israel, Jones said in the remarks to the Washington Institute for Near East policy that the US commitment to its ally's security was "unbreakable." "Everyone must know that there is no space -- no space -- between the United States and Israel when it comes to Israel's security. "Our commitment to Israel's security is unshakable. It is as strong as ever."

Iran possessing nuclear weapons is "unacceptable," a warning repeated by many heads of state and senior government officials. The same was said of North Korea although it may have little more than a nuclear device and thus far lacks a means of delivery.

So what to do about Iran?

The call is for tough sanctions. But sanctions really don't work and will punish Iranians more than their government. We should have learned that in Iraq.

A military strike would postpone Iran's nuclear ambitions. Obviously a different regime in Tehran committed to honoring the Non-Proliferation Treaty could assure the same outcome. For the time being, absent a ground invasion to remove the current government and install a new one, that won't happen.

For those in favor of that option and who argue that George W. Bush's mistake wasn't attempting to change the "geostrategic landscape of the Middle East" but picking the wrong country for that purpose, a Pentagon study drafted in the late 1970's during the Carter administration by Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz on a Persian Gulf Strategy should be mandatory reading.

The Carter administration worried that if war broke out with the Soviet Union, the Red Army would race south into Iran, then our close ally, to seize the oil fields. To counter a Soviet attack, the United States created the Rapid Deployment Joint Task Force, which ultimately would become Central Command well after the shah had fallen victim to the Khomeini revolution. Its first commander, Lt. Gen. P. X. Kelley, later commandant of the Marine Corps, quipped that the RDJTF was not rapid, not deployable and certainly not joint. That, of course, changed dramatically.

However, the study underscored the logistical and geographical difficulties of deploying a major U.S. combat force to fight in Iran. Those conditions haven't changed for the better especially if a ground assault rallied the Iranian public to fight the invaders.

And if Iran and its nuclear facilities were attacked, retaliation would be almost certain. The unleashing of Hezbollah in Lebanon against Israel; 100,000 revolutionary guards storming into Iraq; shutting off of oil exports; and many other options would be considered by Tehran.

So how unacceptable is Iran's obtaining of nuclear weapons against these contexts?

A little history and some "out of the box" thinking help.

Iran's leadership cannot be blind to Saddam Hussein's failed gambit. Saddam pretended to have weapons of mass destruction as a deterrent to his enemies and as a means of convincing his military of a fearsome capability that didn't exist. Iran would take a different

tack -- retaining the nuclear option while adhering to the NPT. That uncertainty could keep the United States off balance and provide Iran with greater influence in the region.

Suppose, however, Iran does build a bomb. Does "unacceptable" automatically turn into crisis and potential disaster?

Or, beyond rhetoric and the limitations of realistic or effective preventative actions, what can be done not merely to respond but to make the best of this otherwise unacceptable situation?

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has suggested the basis for a course of action -- extending a nuclear deterrent regime to the region. That deterrent must include more than the United States. Private discussions with the other major nuclear powers-- Britain, France, Russia and China -- should begin, if they haven't already, to consider how a nuclear deterrent regime could be shaped for the region.

Such a regime would protect Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, negating the need for their own nuclear weapons, and assure the security of Israel and Palestine recognizing that an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel would probably kill as many Muslims and Palestinians as Jews.

Concurrently, and as an off-shoot of the Nuclear Security Summit, a quiet meeting of all nuclear states to include India and Pakistan with invitations to Israel, Iran and both Koreas should be convened for preventing the use or misuse, i.e. theft, of nuclear weapons.

The known nuclear powers have had ample experience with these systems and appreciate the grave responsibilities these weapons impose from safety and security to command and control. Iran has had none and North Korea little.

The most chilling scenario of all is how well or badly equipped the latter are in understanding these responsibilities.

While many will argue (wrongly) that any such discussion risks facilitating Iran's nuclear ambitions, the best prevention could be a combination of the major nuclear powers intent to impose a deterrent regime while ensuring Iran understands the responsibilities, risks and elaborate infrastructure required by nuclear weapons -- areas where there is little evidence this has occurred.

Sadly, all policies aren't always based on rationality. But in this case, the unacceptable may have to become the acceptable.

(Harlan Ullman is senior adviser at the Atlantic Council and chairman of the Killowen Group, which advises leaders of government and industry.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

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Related Links
Learn about nuclear weapons doctrine and defense at SpaceWar.com
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NUKEWARS
US military option against Iran still on table: Pentagon
Washington (AFP) April 21, 2010
US military action against Iran has not been ruled out, a Pentagon spokesman said Wednesday, after a top official said such an option was off the table in the "near term." The Defense Department faced questions about US policy on Iran after Michele Flournoy, undersecretary of defense for policy, reportedly said during a visit to Singapore that a strike against Iran would be a "last resort." ... read more


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