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NUKEWARS
One week to 'finish the job' in Iran nuclear talks
by Staff Writers
Vienna (AFP) Nov 16, 2014


Iran nuclear talks final round: the main issues
Vienna (AFP) Nov 16, 2014 - Negotiators from Iran and six world powers come together in Vienna this week for a final round of talks on securing a deal over Tehran's nuclear programme by a November 24 deadline.

The five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (the P5+1) want Iran to scale down its nuclear activities in order to make any dash to make a bomb extremely difficult.

In return Tehran, which denies seeking to develop nuclear weapons, wants the lifting of UN and Western sanctions that are causing its economy major problems.

In July after months of intense talks, negotiators gave themselves four more months, until November 24, to strike a deal. Now there is speculation about a fresh extension.

Here is a look at the main issues:

ENRICHMENT: The thorniest problem is enrichment, the spinning of uranium gas at supersonic speeds in centrifuge machines to make it suitable for power generation and medical uses but also, at high purities, for a bomb.

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in July that Iran wants to ramp up its enrichment capacities to industrial levels. But the powers want Iran to slash them. Both sides have called for more "realism" on this point.

PROGRESS: Progress has been made in other areas. These include greater oversight for UN inspectors and a different use for Fordo, Iran's second main enrichment site under a mountain near Qom to protect it from air attack.

Another is Iran's apparent willingness to change the design of a new reactor it is building at Arak in order to ensure that it produces much less plutonium, the alternative to highly enriched uranium for a bomb.

TIMING: Apart from enrichment there are other tricky aspects, not least the duration of the mooted accord. Washington wants Iran's nuclear activities limited for a "double-digit" number of years, Tehran considerably less.

Another is the pace at which sanctions would be lifted and how to tie the relief to certain "milestones" reached by Iran. The lifting of sanctions by the UN Security Council and a sceptical US Congress controlled by the Republicans also presents legal difficulties.

SKELETONS IN THE CLOSET: Another potential stumbling block is the UN atomic watchdog's probe into the "possible military dimensions" of Iran's programme -- alleged work on developing a nuclear weapon before 2003 and possibly since.

After years during which Tehran rejected these allegations out of hand, progress at last began to be made this year but Iran has still not provided information on two out of around 12 areas of suspicion to the International Atomic Energy Agency, almost three months after an August 25 deadline.

HIGH STAKES: Reaching a deal could improve Iran's antagonistic relations with the West, paving the way for cooperation in other areas such as fighting militants in Syria and Iraq from the Islamic State group.

It would also silence what US President Barack Obama in 2012 called the "drums of war". Neither Washington nor Israel, widely assumed to have nuclear weapons itself, have ruled out bombing Iran.

In addition it would be an important milestone in global efforts to halt the proliferation of nuclear weapons, and represent a significant foreign policy success for Obama.

ANOTHER EXTENSION? Because of the difficulties the two sides are experiencing in seeing eye to eye, experts have begun to speculate about yet another extension.

This could include locking in measures to do with Fordo, for example, or Arak, in a so-called "Interim Plus" agreement.

"There is virtually no possibility that a complete deal will be concluded by November 24," Robert Einhorn, former special advisor on arms control at the US State Department, told AFP.

"I think they'll agree to extend the interim arrangements for several more months.".

Iran and six world powers begin a final round of talks in Vienna on Tuesday aiming to overcome significant remaining differences and agree a historic nuclear deal by a November 24 deadline.

"There's still a big gap. We may not be able to get there," US President Barack Obama warned last Sunday.

After 12 years of rising tensions, threats of war and failed diplomacy this accord would silence for good fears of Tehran developing nuclear weapons -- an ambition it has always denied.

Success could put Iran and the West on the road to improved relations after 35 years in the deep freeze. Failure could mean renewed Iranian nuclear expansion and even military action.

But US and Iranian negotiators are under severe domestic pressure not to give too much away, not least in Washington after Republicans snatched the Senate majority earlier this month.

It was on November 24 last year, after moderate Hassan Rouhani became president, that Iran and the P5+1 -- UN Security Council permanent members Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States plus Germany -- secured an interim atomic agreement.

They missed however a July 20 deadline to reach a comprehensive accord, agreeing to give themselves four more months, until November 24.

US Secretary of State John Kerry said at the time that the talks were "the best chance we've ever had to resolve this issue peacefully".

And now, says chief US negotiator Wendy Sherman, it is "time to finish the job".

Failure would be a "dangerous scenario for the entire world," her Iranian opposite number Abbas Araqchi said.

- Unity despite Ukraine -

Despite tensions between Russia and the West over the Ukraine crisis the six powers have been united over Iran. Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on Wednesday made a joint call for a deal.

The powers want Iran to scale back its nuclear programme in order to make any rush to build a nuclear bomb virtually impossible. In return Iran wants painful sanctions lifted.

Some areas appear provisionally sewn up, like altering a reactor being built at Arak, a different use for the Fordo facility -- under a mountain to protect it from air attack -- and more inspections.

But the big problem remains enrichment, which renders uranium suitable for power generation and nuclear medicines -- but also, at high purities, for a weapon.

Iran wants to ramp up massively the number of enrichment centrifuges in order, it says, to make reactor fuel. The West wants them slashed, saying Iran has no such need at present.

"There will be no backward steps" in the nuclear programme, Araqchi said last month.

There may however be some wiggle room if Iran neutralises or exports -- perhaps to Russia -- some or all of its uranium stockpiles.

Other thorny issues are the duration of the accord and the pace at which the tangled web of sanctions is undone, an area where Iranian expectations are "excessive", one Western diplomat said Friday.

"They want everything, all at once and this is not realistic," the diplomat involved in the talks said.

- 11th hour breakthrough? -

Observers say the talks were always going to go down to the wire.

"If there is to be a deal, the gaps won't be bridged until the 11th hour. Doing so ahead of time would be seen as not having fought enough," Mark Fitzpatrick at the International Institute for Strategic Studies told AFP.

Not that this means they will succeed, however.

"There is virtually no possibility that a complete deal will be concluded by November 24," Robert Einhorn at the Brookings Institute told AFP. "I think they'll agree to extend the interim arrangements for several more months."

For now though, officials on all sides insist that another extension is not on the cards. Russia's negotiator Sergei Ryabkov has said no one was working on a "plan B".

"A deal is within reach by November 24 and both sides are committed to getting the job done," Arms Control Association analyst Kelsey Davenport told AFP.


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NUKEWARS
Russia, US urge Iran nuclear deal 'as soon as possible': Moscow
Moscow (AFP) Nov 12, 2014
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his US counterpart John Kerry called on Wednesday for an agreement on a nuclear deal with Iran to be reached as soon as possible. "The need to reach as soon as possible a comprehensive agreement which would allow to fully normalise the situation around the Iranian nuclear programme has been acknowledged," the Russian foreign ministry said following ... read more


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