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NUKEWARS
Nuclear treaty goes easy on Russia: analysts
by Staff Writers
Moscow (AFP) Dec 25, 2010


US plans new nuclear talks with Russia
Washington (AFP) Dec 24, 2010 - The US government plans to resume nuclear arms negotiations with Russia next year in hopes of securing legal limits on the smaller, battlefield nuclear weapons, The New York Times reported late Friday. The newspaper said these weapons are viewed as the most vulnerable to theft or diversion. Tactical weapons generally refer to those with ranges of 300 to 400 miles (480-645 kilometers) or less. In 1991, then-president George H.W. Bush announced that he would unilaterally withdraw most tactical nuclear weapons from forward positions, the report said. Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev soon reciprocated, and thousands of tactical bombs were withdrawn or eliminated.

But today, The Times said, the United States retains about 500 tactical weapons, and experts say about 150 to 240 of them are still stationed in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey. Russia has between 2,000 and 6,000 of them, depending on the estimate, the report said. US officials have said Moscow had moved more of them closer to NATO allies as recently as last spring in response to the deployment of US missile defense installations closer to its territory, the paper pointed out. Experts warned that it would be hard to persuade Russia to give up its advantage without getting something in return, The Times said. If not a concession on missile defense, these experts said Russia would certainly want to talk about paring back the large stockpiles of stored strategic weapons that are also not covered by the new START treaty, the report said.

The new Russia-US nuclear arms pact may have been hailed as historic but analysts said that all Moscow really has to do is phase out Soviet-era missiles and warheads that are already out of date.

The new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) was ratified by the US Senate on Wednesday after a passionate months-long debate and given initial approval by Russia's State Duma lower house of parliament two days later.

It will face two more hearings in Russia and almost certainly come into force within the next few months.

The first nuclear pact in two decades has been feted as vital to global security because it reduces old warhead ceilings by an impressive 30 percent and sets a streamlined new inspection procedure designed to eliminate cheating.

The new START limits each side to 1,550 deployed warheads and 700 deployed long-range missiles -- including those fired from submarines -- and heavy bombers.

The two sides may also have up to 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers and bombers.

But analysts said that Russia's real problem was that even these lower missile and launcher ceilings were too high for the country to keep pace with the United States.

Soviet-era missiles such as the Saber SS-22 are rapidly approaching their expiry date and technical specifications mean the weapon has no purpose if its nuclear warheads are taken out of commission.

"START is not the problem here," said the respected military commentator Alexander Golts. "The problem is that Russia has to retire more delivery vehicles because of 'old age' than it has the funds to produce."

The United States had 2,019 more warheads deployed on its launchers and bombers than Russia under START data reported by the US State Department in July 2009.

Independent estimates from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists said that in late 2009 the United States in fact had 2,200 "operational" nuclear warheads and 2,500 more warheads in reserve that could be activated if necessary.

Russia on the other hand was believed to have had a total of 2,600 operational long-range warheads covered by START.

But the required phase-out of old missiles is not the only thing working in Russia's favour. New counting rules will also allow it to attribute just one warhead per bomber even if it carries more -- a point insisted on by Moscow during the treaty negotiations.

National Defence magazine editor Igor Korotchenko told the RIA Novosti news agency that Russia was now likely to keep just 390 missiles and bombers as it looks to save money ahead of a new round of strategic reductions in 2020.

And Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov saw nothing but the treaty's advantages as he defended it parliament Friday.

"We will not have to make any cuts to our strategic offensive weapons," Serdyukov told sceptical lawmakers from the Communist opposition. "But the Americans -- they will indeed have to make some cuts."

"Serdyukov is right," said Moscow's Centre for Disarmament Director Anatoly Dyakov. "Russia has already met its launcher obligations. It only has 560 of those.

"We have more warheads. But if you take the old SS-20s out of commission -- they each have 10 warheads and have been in service 10 years past their expiry -- then you really do not need to take any additional measures," said Dyakov.

The feared SS-20 was eliminated under a landmark 1987 disarmament agreement but the Centre for Defence Information said that Russia now had 120 modified SS-N-20 missiles deployed on its submarines.

The maths also works in Russia's favour because START focuses exclusively on "strategic" nuclear weapons that are designed to destroy large populations or damage the enemy's ability to wage war.

These missiles are for the most part fired over great distances and have been the US weapon of choice during the Cold War.

The United States thus has a strategic superiority over Russia -- which in turn enjoys an advantage in "tactical" weapons used in smaller campaigns around its periphery.

A White House spokesman told Sunday's New York Times that Washington was now "seeking to initiate negotiations" with Moscow on tactical weapons and Russian lawmakers agreed that those talks would probably happen next.

"I am afraid that this is something Russia will not be able to avoid," the upper house of parliament's foreign affairs committee chairman Mikhail Margelov told Moscow Echo radio.

But he added: "We should definitely support START."

earlier related report
Russian parliament backs US nuclear treaty
Moscow (AFP) Dec 24, 2010 - Russia's lower house of parliament Friday gave initial backing to a historic treaty with the United States to slash the nuclear arsenals of the Cold War foes but warned final ratification would drag into next year.

The State Duma lower house of parliament voted with 350 in favour and 58 against for the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) signed by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and US President Barack Obama on April 8.

Yet hopes ratification could be wrapped up by the end of the year after the US Senate's approval Wednesday were dashed when top Russian officials voiced unease at additions made by US senators to their own ratification resolution.

The head of Russia's foreign affairs committee Konstantin Kosachev said the non-binding US attachments meant that a second of the three required votes on the bill would not be held until "January at the earliest".

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov sounded an optimistic note by observing that "common sense" had prevailed because neither side had introduced changes that undermined the essence of the treaty.

But he stressed that Russia was "absolutely not in agreement" with a Senate amendment insisting on the United States' right to build a missile defence system in Europe and convert strategic offensive weapons into defensive ones.

"This is an arbitrary interpretation of the principles of international law. The agreement, like any other, is a single whole," he said.

The new START treaty restricts the former nuclear rivals to a maximum of 1,550 deployed warheads each -- a cut of about 30 percent from a limit set in 2002 -- and 800 launchers and bombers.

The cuts focus exclusively on "strategic" nuclear weapons that are designed to destroy large populations or damage the enemy's ability to wage war.

The United States has a vast superiority in these weapons over Russia -- which enjoys an advantage in "tactical" weapons used in smaller campaigns -- a point stressed repeatedly by Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov during the brief Duma debate.

"We will not have to make any cuts to our strategic offensive weapons," the defence minister told sceptical Communist lawmakers who opposed the bill.

"These will be removed from service only when the time comes to decommission them."

But Russia is deeply concerned that the proposed US defence shield may one day be turned around to fire warheads at Russia.

Lawmakers now have until January to introduce their own counter-amendments to those adopted in Washington -- with Serdyukov urging deputies to assert their own interpretation on the missile shield.

"We think it essential that the State Duma adopt a declaration confirming the importance of the link between strategic offensive and strategic defensive arms," Serdyukov said.

The Duma's first reading vote only signifies approval of the original form of the treaty signed by the presidents in Prague.

But US senators argue that the treaty does nothing to prevent the United States from deploying a missile shield that Russia also fears may one day be expanded to hurt its own nuclear capabilities.

"These issues have to be studied very carefully," the Duma foreign affairs committee chief Kosachev warned before the vote. "And that takes time."

Russia's two houses of parliament are dominated by pro-Kremlin lawmakers and there is almost no doubt that they will eventually approve the pact.

Medvedev has called on lawmakers to pass the measure and described the Senate's ratification as a "historic event for both countries and for US-Russia relations."

The Kremlin chief also hailed Obama as a man who keeps his promises and urged him to relax over the holidays.

"He is a man who fulfils his promises. I wish my colleague a good rest, he did a quality job," Medvedev said in a live end-of-year television interview.

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Related Links
Learn about nuclear weapons doctrine and defense at SpaceWar.com
Learn about missile defense at SpaceWar.com
All about missiles at SpaceWar.com
Learn about the Superpowers of the 21st Century at SpaceWar.com






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NUKEWARS
Russian parliament backs US nuclear treaty
Moscow (AFP) Dec 24, 2010
Russia's lower house of parliament Friday gave initial backing to a historic treaty with the United States to slash the nuclear arsenals of the Cold War foes but warned final ratification would drag into next year. The State Duma lower house of parliament voted with 350 in favour and 58 against for the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) signed by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev an ... read more


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