Recent paleoseismic work has documented four surface-rupturing earthquakes that occurred across the Santa Cruz Mountains section of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) in the past 500 years.

The research, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, with assistance from the California Geological Survey, suggests an average recurrence rate of 125 years, indicating the seismic hazard for the area may be significantly higher than currently recognized. The observations help fill a gap in data on the seismic activity of the SAF in northern California, particularly south of San Francisco.

Geologists Thomas Fumal and Tim Dawson conducted paleoseismic studies at Mill Canyon, near Watsonville, California. They documented evidence for four earthquakes, the most recent being the 1906 M 7.8 San Francisco event.

They conclude that each of the three earthquakes prior to the 1906 quake was a large magnitude event that likely ruptured most, or all, of the Santa Cruz Mountains segment, producing similar physical deformation as the 1906 quake.

In addition to filling in a data gap about the SAF in this region, this research adds to the understanding of how the SAF behaves, in particular whether individual segments of the fault system can produce destructive earthquakes and how often.

This study joins to a growing body of work that suggests the SAF produces a wider array of magnitudes than previously appreciated in the current seismic hazard models.

Seattle Fault Zone - 900-930 AD earthquake larger than previously thought
A fresh look at sedimentary evidence suggests the 900-930 AD rupture of the Seattle fault possibly produced a larger earthquake than previously recognized. The Seattle fault zone, a series of active-east-west trending thrust faults, poses seismic threat to the Puget Sound region.

The 900-930 AD rupture is the only known large earthquake along the Seattle Fault, making geological records of prehistoric events the only clues to the earthquake potential of the fault.

While a graduate student at the University of Washington, Maria Arcos looked at tsunami and debris flow deposits - both evidence of a paleo-quake - in the coastal marsh at Gorst, Washington.

She also identified evidence of at least three meters of uplift that preceded a tsunami, which was followed by a sandy debris flow from Gorst Creek, and suggests that the 900-930 AD quake covered a greater geographic area than previous fault interpretations.

The revised height and width of deformation caused by the quake may influence current interpretations of the Seattle fault's structure. This study found a minimum of three meters of uplift at Gorst, which is double the amount of previous fault models for the same location.

A broader zone of deformation, says Arcos, may indicate either a wider zone of slip along the dip of the fault, a shallower dip or splay faults farther to the south.

"Timing of Large Earthquakes during the past 500 years along the Santa Cruz Mountains Segment of the San Andreas Fault at Mill Canyon, near Watsonville, California," published by BSSA, Vol. 102:3. Author: Thomas Fumal, U.S. Geological Survey.

"The A.D. 900 - 930 Seattle Fault Zone Earthquake with a Wider Coseismic Rupture Patch and Postseismic Submergence: Inferences from New Sedimentary Evidence," published in BSSA Vol 102:3; DOI number 10.1785/0120110123.