Free Newsletters - Space - Defense - Environment - Energy - Solar - Nuclear
..
. 24/7 Space News .




WATER WORLD
New forecast doubles lead time for El Nino: study
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) July 01, 2013


A new method could double the lead time for forecasting the ocean warming trend known as El Nino and help communities better prepare for crops losses, floods and drought, German researchers said Monday.

The forecasting algorithm is based on the interactions between sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and the rest of the ocean, and appears to warn of an El Nino event one year in advance instead of the current six months.

"Enhancing the preparedness of people in the affected regions by providing more early-warning time is key to avoiding some of the worst effects of El Nino," said Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

The new technique also appears more reliable than conventional forecasts, Schellnhuber and colleagues reported in the US journal the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Scientists analyzed more than 200 measurement points in the Pacific dating back to the 1950s. The interactions between distant points helped predict whether the El Nino warming would come about in the eastern equatorial Pacific.

Scientists used it in 2011 to correctly predict the absence of an El Nino event last year, while conventional forecasts wrongly said there would be significant warming well into 2012.

Natural forces cause the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO, which researchers described as the "most important phenomenon of contemporary natural climate variability."

The pattern has been known to cause drought in South America, Indonesia and Australia, heavy flooding in places like Peru and Ecuador, and possibly the severe winters in Europe, unusual monsoons in East Asia and hurricanes in the Caribbean.

Researchers said the ability to forecast El Nino events will become more important as global warming progresses, possibly making the ENSO pattern more intense and worsening its impacts.

.


Related Links
Water News - Science, Technology and Politics






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle




Memory Foam Mattress Review
Newsletters :: SpaceDaily :: SpaceWar :: TerraDaily :: Energy Daily
XML Feeds :: Space News :: Earth News :: War News :: Solar Energy News





WATER WORLD
El Nino, La Nina unlikely to make an appearance in 2013: WMO
Geneva (AFP) June 26, 2013
The Pacific Ocean is unlikely to see either a warming El Nino climate phenomenon or its cooling La Nina opposite number through the end of the year, the UN's weather agency said Wednesday. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said forecasts showed that Pacific climate patterns were set to remain neutral through the rest of the year, although "a slight chance of La Nina or El Nino deve ... read more


WATER WORLD
Metamorphosis of Moon's Water Ice Explained

Scientists use gravity, topographic data to find unmapped moon craters

Australian team maps Moon's hidden craters

LADEE Arrives at Wallops for Moon Mission

WATER WORLD
Dry run for the 2020 Mars Mission

Opportunity Clocks Up 37 Kilometers Of Roving Mars

Mars Rover Opportunity Trekking Toward More Layers

Mars had oxygen-rich atmosphere 4,000 million years ago

WATER WORLD
Voyager 1 Explores Final Frontier Of Our Solar Bubble

NASA's Voyager 1 approaches outer limit of solar system

PayPal launches quest for intergalactic currency

NASA Bill Would 'End Reliance on Russia,' Nix Asteroid Capture Project

WATER WORLD
China plans to launch Tiangong-2 space lab around 2015

Twilight for Tiangong

China calls for international cooperation in manned space program

Shenzhou 10 Returns Safely To Earth

WATER WORLD
Russian cosmonauts conduct space station tasks in spacewalk

Accelerating ISS Science With Upgraded Payload Operations Integration Center

Strange Flames on the ISS

Europe's space truck docks with ISS

WATER WORLD
Russian Proton M Rocket Explodes Just After Blast Off

Arianespace takes delivery of its next Ariane 5 at the Spaceport

SpaceX Will Launch Turkmenistan Satellite For Thales Alenia Space

New Mexico Space Grant Consortium student experiments blast into space from Spaceport America

WATER WORLD
Astronomers Detect Three 'Super-Earths' in Nearby Star's Habitable Zone

Three planets in habitable zone of nearby star

1 star, 3 habitable planets

Gas-giant exoplanets seen clinging close to their parent stars

WATER WORLD
Low-power Wi-Fi signal tracks movement -- even behind walls

Gartner trims global IT spending forecast for the year

China sets rare earth export quota for second half

EU approves compromise on 'shipbreaking' in South Asian countries




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2014 - Space Media Network. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement