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NUKEWARS
New Republican Congress could counter Obama on Iran
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) Nov 05, 2014


US has offered Iran 'framework' for nuclear deal: Obama
Washington (AFP) Nov 05, 2014 - The US has put forward a "framework" plan to meet Iran's energy needs, President Barack Obama revealed Wednesday, but warned it was unclear if a deal to curb Tehran's nuclear ambitions would be struck.

As a November 24 deadline for an historic accord between Iran and global powers looms, Obama said the coming weeks would test the true intentions of the Islamic republic after a decade of stop-start global efforts.

"We presented to them a framework that would allow them to meet their peaceful energy needs," Obama told reporters.

It was the first time the United States has alluded to a completed framework being on the table, and came just days before top diplomat John Kerry holds fresh negotiations with his Iranian counterpart.

If Iran is sincere in not seeking a nuclear weapon, "if that's in fact true, they have an avenue here to provide that assurance to the world community," Obama said.

It would be "a progressive step-by-step verifiable way" which would "allow them to get out from under sanctions so they can re-enter as full-fledged members of the international community."

Iranian leaders have long insisted they are not seeking to develop an atomic bomb, saying the country's nuclear program is solely for peaceful civilian energy needs.

At issue has been how to meet those energy needs, while at the same time cutting off Iran's path to a nuclear weapon.

But Obama again repeated Washington's long-held insistence that "no deal is better than a bad deal."

"Whether we can actually get a deal done, we'll have to find out over the next three to four weeks," Obama told reporters ahead of weekend talks in Oman between Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.

Obama's press conference came a day after the Republican Party seized back control of the US Senate, putting the president's rivals in a powerful position to thwart any deal with Iran by refusing to lift US sanctions.

So far diplomats from the global powers leading the nuclear talks -- Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States -- have refused to divulge any details of the complex technical negotiations.

But the aim is to draw up ways to cut off any suspect Iranian nuclear activities, such as uranium enrichment, in return for a lifting of crippling international sanctions.

According to The New York Times this week one part of the deal could involve shipping Tehran's huge stockpile of uranium to Russia to be converted into fuel rods for Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant.

Once uranium has been converted into fuel rods, it is difficult to use it as a weapon.

Under an interim deal reached a year ago, Iran agreed to halt uranium enrichment and even reduce some of its stockpile in exchange for the unblocking of about $7 billion in frozen oil revenues to help its economy.

After the election drubbing suffered by his Democrats, President Barack Obama will face a Republican-controlled Congress critical of his foreign policy -- and which could rebel against any eventual Iran nuclear accord.

Aside from the war against the Islamic State (IS) group in Iraq and Syria, Tehran's nuclear program is undoubtedly the top foreign policy issue before Congress, with negotiations between the Islamic republic and world powers coming down to a November 24 deadline.

Until now, the Obama administration has essentially had a free hand in its handling of the negotiations.

Through his Democratic allies in the Senate, the president has managed to squelch any expansion of punitive sanctions against Tehran -- measures introduced by lawmakers skeptical of Iran's efforts.

But the new Republican-controlled Senate likely will not show the same deference as Democrats, should Obama agree to extend the talks.

"It's hard to imagine an extension being palatable on the Hill without something in return, without some sort of consequence for Iran," a senior Republican congressional staffer told AFP.

"There's a fairly strong consensus in this town that Iran does not feel urgency."

- New sanctions? -

Lawmakers from both parties are already holding behind-the-scenes discussions over which tack to take once the new Congress opens on January 3, the aide said.

"If the Republicans control the Senate and these negotiations are continuing with no significant result, my assumption will be that the Republicans will move some kind of legislation," predicted Mark Dubowitz, an expert who advocates for tougher sanctions on Iran and has testified before Congress on the issue.

A draft bill prepared by Democratic Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman Robert Menendez and Republican Senator Mark Kirk -- which would trigger sanctions against Iran at a predetermined date if no final deal is reached -- could serve as a base text, said Dubowitz.

The situation could boil over into a confrontation at the start of the year, experts say.

Lawmakers "might try to pass something that increases sanctions and flies in the face of the administration's policy," said Gordon Adams, a professor of international relations at American University in Washington who served in Bill Clinton's White House.

"But if they do that... the president will veto it."

Secretary of State John Kerry said he did not envision a Republican-controlled Senate dramatically affecting policy on Iran.

"I honestly don't. I believe that the same substantive issues would be there regardless of who is in control," Kerry said in Paris, adding that Republicans would need 60 votes to advance most major legislation in the 100-member chamber.

"What is complicated is managing internal expectations in other places," he added. "That may or may not have a profound impact."

US tradition dictates that the commander-in-chief is the sole defender of American interests in the face of foreign threats, and all sanctions include waivers that the president can invoke in the name of national security.

In the end, Adams said, "the reality is that the Senate doesn't make policy -- it oversees and criticizes policy."

- Debate over Syria -

Republicans are also likely to use the Senate as a platform for criticizing administration policy on battling IS fighters in Iraq and Syria, although they share the ultimate goal of defeating the jihadists, according to Will McCants of the Brookings Institution.

"They're just going to question what the Obama administration has done to this point to arm the rebels, and they would be skeptical of the administration's claim that it's moving aggressively to create a credible opposition force" to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, McCants told AFP.

Lawmakers have given the US leader until December 11 to present a convincing strategy -- that date marks the expiration of congressional authorization to train moderate Syrian rebels, a plan that was adopted in September.

For Bob Corker, who is poised to take the helm at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, "there is not a strategy" from the administration on Syria.

But Republicans, like Democrats, do not speak with a single voice -- there are national security hawks like Senator John McCain and there are those less inclined to back American interventionism abroad.

Congressional debate on the continuation of the use of military force against the IS group will not take place until January, according to House Speaker John Boehner.

And then what?

"Congress can't make the administration be more aggressive," Adams said, adding that debate on the use of force "will be designed to point out that the administration is incompetent."

Kerry says 'driving towards finish' on Iran nuke deal
Paris (AFP) Nov 05, 2014 - US Secretary of State John Kerry claimed Wednesday he was "driving towards the finish" to secure what would be a historic deal with Iran over its nuclear programme as a November 24 deadline looms.

Speaking to reporters in Paris, Kerry said there was "no intention at this point of talking about an extension" as ministers stepped up shuttle diplomacy ahead of the deadline.

"We are not contemplating an extension," stressed Kerry, ahead of what are likely to be crunch talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and outgoing EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton in Muscat on November 9-10.

"We are driving towards the finish with the view we are to trying to get it done," he said.

The meeting in Oman comes amid recognition that serious gaps still remain between global powers grouped under the so-called P5+1 powers -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States plus Germany -- and Iran.

Kerry has previously warned that the coming weeks will finally reveal whether the Islamic Republic is truly prepared to make the tough decisions needed to curb its suspect nuclear programme and win a lifting of international sanctions.

Months of intense negotiations, including between Kerry and Zarif in mid-October in Vienna, have made some progress but appear deadlocked on the key issues of uranium enrichment and the pace of any sanctions relief.

Enrichment renders uranium suitable for nuclear power generation and other peaceful uses but also, at high purities, for a nuclear bomb.


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