Free Newsletters - Space - Defense - Environment - Energy - Solar - Nuclear
..
. 24/7 Space News .




WEATHER REPORT
Multifold increase in heat extremes by 2040
by Staff Writers
Potsdam, Germany (SPX) Aug 20, 2013


File image courtesy AFP.

Extremes such as the severe heat wave last year in the US or the one 2010 in Russia are likely to be seen much more often in the near future. A few decades ago, they were practically absent. Today, due to man-made climate change monthly heat extremes in summer are already observed on 5 percent of the land area.

This is projected to double by 2020 and quadruple by 2040, according to a study by scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM). A further increase of heat extremes in the second half of our century could be stopped if global greenhouse-gas emissions would be reduced substantially.

"In many regions, the coldest summer months by the end of the century will be hotter than the hottest experienced today -- that's what our calculations show for a scenario of unabated climate change," says Dim Coumou of PIK.

"We would enter a new climatic regime." The scientists focus on heat waves that exceed the usual natural variability of summer month temperatures in a given region by a large margin, namely so called 3-sigma events. These are periods of several weeks that are three standard deviations warmer than the normal local climate -- often resulting in harvest losses, forest fires, and additional deaths in heat-struck cities.

Such heat extremes might cover 85 percent of the global land area in summer by 2100, if CO2 continues to be emitted as it is today, the study shows. In addition to this, even hotter extremes that are virtually non-existent today would affect 60 percent of the global land area.

While climate change mitigation could prevent this, the projected increase up to mid-century is expected to happen regardless of the emissions scenario. "There're already so much greenhouse-gases in the atmosphere today that the near-term increase of heat extremes seems to be almost inevitable," Coumou says. This is important information for developing adaptation measures in the affected sectors.

As the study defines a heat extreme based on the natural variability a region has experienced in the past, the absolute temperatures of this type of event will differ in different regions of the world.

For instance the observed Russian heat wave brought an increase of the monthly average temperature by 7 degrees Celsius in Moscow and daily peak temperatures above 40 degrees.

In tropical regions like e.g. Southern India or Brazil, natural variability is much smaller than in the moderate zones, hence 3-sigma events are not as large a deviation in absolute temperatures.

"In general, society and ecosystems have adapted to extremes experienced in the past and much less so to extremes outside the historic range," Alexander Robinson of UCM says.

"So in the tropics, even relatively small changes can yield a big impact -- and our data indicates that these changes, predicted by earlier research, in fact are already happening."

The scientists combined results of a comprehensive set of state-of-the-art climate models, the CMIP5 ensemble, thereby reducing the uncertainty associated with each individual model. "We show that these simulations capture the observed rise in heat extremes over the past 50 years very well." Robinson points out. "This makes us confident that they're able to robustly indicate what is to be expected in future."

.


Related Links
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Weather News at TerraDaily.com






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle




Memory Foam Mattress Review
Newsletters :: SpaceDaily :: SpaceWar :: TerraDaily :: Energy Daily
XML Feeds :: Space News :: Earth News :: War News :: Solar Energy News





WEATHER REPORT
Too late to stop extreme heat waves: study
Paris, France (AFP) Aug 14, 2013
Climate change will trigger harsher and more frequent heat waves in the next 30 years regardless of the amount of Earth-warming carbon dioxide we emit, a study said Thursday. But targets adopted today for curbing greenhouse gas emissions will determine whether the pattern stabilises thereafter, or grows even worse. High temperatures and heat waves in the last decade are widely blamed on ... read more


WEATHER REPORT
NASA Selects Launch Services Contract for OSIRIS-REx Mission

Environmental Controls Move Beyond Earth

Bad night's sleep? The moon could be to blame

Moon Base and Beyond

WEATHER REPORT
MRO Swapping Motion-Sensing Units

Opportunity Reaches Base of 'Solander Point'

NASA launches new Russian-language Mars website

Big ice may explain Mars' double-layer craters

WEATHER REPORT
Voyager 1 Has Left the Solar System

NASA Voyager Statement about Competing Models to Explain Recent Spacecraft Data

NASA Commercial Crew Partner SpaceX Completes Orbit and Entry Review

Space to become tourist destination in the future

WEATHER REPORT
China launches three experimental satellites

Medical quarantine over for Shenzhou-10 astronauts

China's astronauts ready for longer missions

Chinese probe reaches record height in space travel

WEATHER REPORT
ISS Boosting Biological Research in Orbit

Japanese Cargo Craft Captured, Berthed to ISS

Japanese Cargo Spacecraft Docks with ISS

NASA's Firestation on way to ISS

WEATHER REPORT
Lockheed Martin Selects CubeSat Integrators for Athena to Enhance Launch Systems Integration

Russia to resume Proton-M rocket launches in mid-September

Roscosmos denies plans to launch Proton rocket from Baikonur on Sept 15

SpaceX rocket launches, steers and lands in test

WEATHER REPORT
Distant planet sets speed record by orbiting its star every 8.5 hours

Kepler planet hunter spacecraft is beyond repair: NASA

Astronomers Image Lowest-mass Exoplanet Around a Sun-like Star

New Explorer Mission Chooses the 'Just-Right' Orbit

WEATHER REPORT
Space station astronauts to be provided with 3-D printer to make parts

Advancing resistive memory to improve portable electronics

ORNL superconducting wire yields unprecedented performance

A new approach assembles big structures from small interlocking pieces




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2014 - Space Media Network. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement