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SUPERPOWERS
Malaysia Flight 17 and the decline of the West
by Peter Morici
Washington DC (UPI) Jul 21, 2014


Ukraine fighter jet near Malaysian plane before crash: Moscow
Moscow (AFP) July 21, 2014 - Russia on Monday said its records show a Ukrainian fighter jet was flying close to the Malaysian airliner just before it crashed and a US satellite was flying over rebel-held Ukraine at the time.

Moscow also denied supplying Ukrainian separatists with Buk missile systems or any other weapons as it sought to head off international accusations it was responsible for the downing of the Malaysian plane with 298 people on board.

In the early hours of Monday, the Kremlin released a video address in which a grim-faced President Vladimir Putin said the tragedy should unite and not divide people.

Armed with a number of slides, charts and images, two high-ranking officials of Russia's General Staff later Monday laid out a case against Kiev and Washington at a specially called briefing.

Lieutenant-General Andrei Kartopolov said the Malaysian plane strayed north of its planned route, adding that a Ukrainian SU-25 fighter jet, which is typically equipped with air-to-air missiles, had been recorded in the proximity of the Boeing 777.

The Malaysian plane "deviated from its route to the North ... The maximum deviation was 14 kilometres," he said.

"An altitude gain was recorded for a Ukrainian armed forces plane," he told the briefing. "Its distance from the Malaysian Boeing was three to five kilometres (two to three miles)," he said, noting that the SU-25 is capable of reaching a height of 10,000 metres "for a brief time."

"With what aim was a military plane flying along a civilian aviation route practically at the same time and at the same flight level as a passenger liner?" said Kartopolov. "We would like to receive an answer to this question."

The Russian official also challenged Washington to release its satellite images to back up its claim that rebels targeted the Boeing 777 with a missile.

"No one has seen those images," Kartopolov said, noting that a US satellite flew over the rebel-held part of Ukraine at around the time the plane crashed.

"Whether it is a coincidence or not, but the time of the disaster and the time of monitoring by the US satellite dovetail."

- 'Military hardware' -

Kartopolov also said that the Russian defence ministry detected activity from radar stations that are used to operate missile systems on the day of the tragedy.

"From July 17 (Thursday) the intensity of the operation of Ukrainian radar stations increased to the maximum," said Kartopolov.

He added seven radar stations were operating close to the area of the disaster on Tuesday, eight on Wednesday and nine on the day of the crash, Thursday.

After the crash, just four radar stations were operating in the area on Friday and just two on Saturday, he added.

Kartopolov insisted Russia had not supplied Ukrainian separatists with Buk missile systems or any other weapons.

"I want to stress that Russia did not give the rebels Buk missile systems or any other kinds of weapons or military hardware," he told reporters.

He dismissed images allegedly showing Buk systems being transferred from Russia into Ukraine as fake, claiming Ukraine's missile systems had been moved close to the scene of the disaster ahead of the crash.

On Tuesday, Putin will chair a Security Council meeting expected to address issues related to securing Russia's "sovereignty and territorial integrity." The Kremlin did not provide any details about the meeting.

The downing of Malaysia Flight 17 casts new light on just how inept and decadent the United States and Europe have become.

Faced with Russia's annexation of Crimea and attempts to repeat in Eastern Ukraine, the best Western Europe and the United States have mustered are strong words and token sanctions on top Russian officials and several companies. That's hardly enough to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin's ambitions to make Russia the dominant power in Eurasia.

Now, public outrage at the downing of the Malaysia Airlines passenger plane will force Western governments to exercise restraint from imposing truly effective sanctions on Russia's subversive activities in Ukraine in exchange for an international investigation.

That likely will yield little more than already inferred. Russia supplied the missiles and is culpable for enabling separatists who shot down the plane.

Not much else will happen.

Six months from now Russian agents will still be operating in Ukraine and planning similar uprisings in other former Soviet states.

The United States lacks sufficient military assets in Europe to deter Russian aggression, and Europe's most powerful state, Germany, lacks the will to stand up to Russia. U.S. President Barack Obama has been too successful at paying for entitlements by cutting the defense budget, and German businesses are profiting too much from commerce with Russia.

Obama naively misjudged Putin. There is no reset button for relations with a regime led by a criminal. Putin has plundered businesses, crushed dissent and killed journalists. To believe he can be persuaded through diplomacy or imposing minor economic costs is a fool's journey.

Putin knows if he unwinds his plans slowly and occasionally appears to engage in meaningful discussions and cooperation, he can dupe Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel and co-opt their political constituencies. The latter have already rationalized Russia's annexation of Crimea and will do the same if he slices off more of Ukraine.

The U.S. and European economies have grown so slowly in recent decades that their governments cannot afford both the militaries needed to deter Russian aggression and maintain their welfare states. And voters have been so lulled into complacency with high-minded talk about international law and diplomacy that they believe they can turn their eyes away from Russian state terrorism without peril to their own security, much in the manner of Munich and Neville Chamberlain.

Rearming could not be accomplished simply by taxing the wealthy and big corporations as liberals in America and Social Democrats in Europe would demand. Entrepreneurs and multinationals would find ways to locate even more investment and taxable assets in fast-growing Asia.

Rather, ordinary Europeans and Americans must be willing to pay higher taxes or accept fewer social benefits to secure Europe from Russian aggression.

That's the rub. Voters in Western nations simply won't accept that they cannot have effective foreign policies and be secure without strong, growing economies to pay for militaries to deter aggression and to persuade the developing world to their democratic way of thinking.

China's strong growth is permitting it to build a modern navy that challenges U.S. dominance in the Pacific, and extend its influence in the developing world by building mutually profitable trading relationships and with foreign aid.

More importantly, the contrast between Chinese economic performance and tepid growth in Western economies make its autocratic political system and state-managed capitalism an attractive alternative to Western democratic capitalism. Eventually, the West will be eclipsed, isolated and unable to defend itself and its liberties.

Most Americans and Europeans, for now, are reasonably prosperous, and believe they can accept slower growth as the price for maintaining massive welfare states, whose taxes and benefits discourage investment and hard work.

What they are unwilling to recognize is that their welfare states and consequent slow growth will ultimately undermine their security and survival.

Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and a national columnist, and tweets @PMorici1

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