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NUKEWARS
Israel could opt for nuke strikes on Iran
by Staff Writers
Tel Aviv, Israel (UPI) Apr 8, 2010


Six major powers agree to further talks on Iran sanctions
New York (AFP) April 8, 2010 - Envoys of six major powers met for nearly three hours behind closed doors Thursday to weigh new UN sanctions on Iran and said further talks would be held here and in capital cities in coming days. "We had a worthwhile discussion," US Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice told reporters at the end of the meeting. "We look forward to continuing these discussions here in New York and in capitals in the days and weeks to come." she added. "We heard some constructive proposals," her Russian counterpart Vitaly Churkin said. Rice and Churkin huddled with their fellow envoys from Britain, China, France, and Germany at Britain's UN mission in New York to discuss a US draft resolution that would slap sanctions on Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards believed to be involved in nuclear proliferation activities.

In Prague, US and Russian presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev warned Iran of possible sanctions shortly after signing a landmark disarmament deal. The two leaders said Iran could expect sanctions if it maintains its refusal to halt uranium enrichment and cooperate with UN atomic watchdog inspectors amid Western suspicions that it is seeking a bomb. The United States and its Western allies believe Tehran is using uranium enrichment as a cover to build nuclear weapons, a claim the Iranians deny. In New York, China's UN Ambassador Li Baodong said after the meeting that the six powers would continue to pursue a diplomatic solution even as they sought a deal over sanctions to persuade Tehran to halt its uranium enrichment program. "The dual track (sanctions coupled with negotiations) approach is actually focused on diplomacy," Li said. Churkin echoed those remarks.

China, which for weeks had resisted discussing in earnest the specific proposals agreed by the United States and its key European allies, finally relented and agreed to join the ambassador-level discussions in New York. Earlier Thursday, Rice said at UN headquarters: "I am not prepared to predict when they (the talks) will conclude or not." "We are working to get this done swiftly, within a matter of weeks in the spring," she added. Obama called for "smart" and "strong" sanctions by the United Nations, which in May will hold a review conference on the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. "I have said many times that sanctions very often do not work, but sometimes they are necessary.... These need to be smart sanctions, capable of prompting the right behavior," Medvedev added. The 15-member UN Security Council, including China, has already imposed three sets of sanctions on Iran over its refusal to halt uranium enrichment.

The State Department said efforts to pressure Iran to curtail its nuclear ambitions will also be a "significant" topic during next week's nuclear summit in Washington. State Department spokesman Philip Crowley said he expected Iran to come up during meetings which Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton hold on the sidelines of the summit. "We continue to do everything we can to produce an appropriate resolution as soon as possible and we're very mindful of the timetable," he said. But China, which has close energy ties with Tehran and last week played host to the Islamic republic's chief nuclear negotiator, said through its foreign ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu that it "still believes dialogue and consultation are the best way to solve the (Iranian) nuclear issue."

U.S. President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, may have signed a landmark arms-control treaty, but a U.S. think tank is suggesting Israel could resort to using tactical nuclear weapons to destroy Iran's deeply buried nuclear facilities.

Whether this is all part of a U.S. effort to crank up the pressure on Iran to be more compliant on the nuclear issue by using scare tactics or if the right-wing government in Israel is actually inclined to resort to nuclear weapons is almost impossible to discern.

But one day after the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington released a report on March 26 noting that "some believe that nuclear weapons are the only weapons that can destroy targets deep underground or in tunnels," The New York Times reported Iran was suspected of preparing to build two more uranium enrichment plants.

And just to ram the message home, on March 28, the Times' Sunday edition ran an analysis headlined "Imagining an Israeli Strike on Iran."

The 208-page report, by veteran Middle East analysts Anthony Cordesman and Abdullah Toukan, argued that Israel's air force does not have the firepower to knock out the Iranian facilities and that low-yield tactical nuclear warheads would be the only way to destroy them.

Israel, of course, has made no comment on this at all, in line with its policy of deliberate ambiguity about its nuclear arsenal, believed to total some 600 warheads, bombs and artillery shells.

Nor does it discuss its inventory of Jericho II -- and probably some Jericho III -- ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. These are placed in heavily fortified silos in the Judean Hills and near two or three Israeli air bases.

But if Israel elected to launch a nuclear strike, it is likely that the Jerichos would be the chosen means of delivery.

They would eliminate Israeli casualties, of which there would be an appreciable number if the air force was thrown at Iran's heavily protected nuclear infrastructure, and the loss of valuable strike aircraft.

One assessment estimated Israel would need 90-100 long-range F-15I and F-16I aircraft for such strikes, of which around 20 percent would be lost.

In an assessment in March 2009, Toukan estimated that 42 Jericho IIIs, with 1,650-pound conventional warheads, would be needed to "severely damage or demolish" Iran's core nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan and Arak.

That, according to most estimates, would be enough to set back Iran's nuclear arms project by two or three years.

But it would also run the risk of retaliatory attacks on Israel, either with Iran's Shehab-3 intermediate-range ballistic missiles -- Tehran has threatened to unleash 600, although there's no evidence it has that many -- or using local proxies Hezbollah and Hamas.

Israel could also use its three German-built Dolphin-class submarines, reportedly adapted to launch nuclear-tipped cruise missiles, firing from the Arabian Sea to add to the mayhem.

Little is known about the Jericho III, but it is believed be a three-stage, solid-fuel missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead for a minimum range of 2,980 miles.

Israel has never even hinted at using nuclear weapons against Iran.

President Shimon Peres, who played a key role in creating Israel's nuclear capability in the 1950s and 60s, has declared the Jewish state "will not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons to the region."

The Americans have repeatedly warned Israel not to mount unilateral pre-emptive strikes against Iran because that could drag the United States into another war.

Obama's new version of U.S. nuclear strategy unveiled Tuesday significantly narrows the circumstances in which Americans would employ nuclear arms. But it does allow their use against rogue states like Iran.

While that's hardly a green light for Israel, former Central Intelligence Agency official Philip Giraldi notes: "Israel is fast becoming a pariah nation … Like South Africa, the Israeli response to criticism has been to become more reactionary … waging unending war against its neighbors to maintain cohesion against foreign enemies.

"There is a certain danger in isolating the Israelis too much as it … might influence a dangerously unstable government to take action that might include exploiting its nuclear arsenal in search of Armageddon."

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