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NUKEWARS
Iran will produce nuclear weapons if attacked: Russia
by Staff Writers
Moscow (AFP) March 20, 2012


US sees perils of Israeli strike on Iran: NYT
New York (AFP) March 20, 2012 - A classified US war simulation held to assess potential fallout from an Israeli attack on Iran predicts it would spark a broader regional war involving the United States, The New York Times reported Tuesday.

The simulation was not considered a rehearsal, the report said, but does indicate potential risks from such an attack.

"The results of the war game were particularly troubling to General James Mattis, who commands all American forces in the Middle East, Persian Gulf and Southwest Asia," the report said, citing unnamed officials familiar with the effort.

"When the exercise had concluded earlier this month, according to the officials, General Mattis told aides that an Israeli first strike would be likely to have dire consequences across the region and for United States forces there," it added.

The two-week simulation, dubbed Internal Look, highlighted a series of potential events in which "the United States found it was pulled into the conflict" after Iranian missiles struck a US Navy warship in the Gulf, killing about 200 Americans, according to officials with knowledge of the exercise.

The simulation indicated US forces would retaliate by carrying out its own strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, the report said.

The Islamic republic has been buffeted in recent months by ramped-up Western economic sanctions.

It has also been threatened with possible military action against its nuclear facilities by Israel and the United States.

Throughout, Tehran has maintained that its nuclear program is purely peaceful, denying Western suspicions -- largely echoed in a November report by the International Atomic Energy Agency -- that it was conducting military research towards designing nuclear weapons.

Russia warned Tuesday that Iran would have no option but to develop nuclear weapons if it came under attack from either the United States or Israel over its contested atomic programme.

"The CIA and other US officials admit they now have no information about the Iranian leadership taking the political decision to produce nuclear weapons," Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told Moscow's Kommersant FM radio.

"But I am almost certain that such a decision will surely be taken after (any) strikes on Iran," Lavrov said.

The pre-recorded interview was aired shortly after Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that his country was ready to strike back against either the United States or Israel "at the same level as they attack us".

Moscow has close military and commercial ties with Tehran and has only grudgingly backed four rounds of UN Security Council sanctions over Iran's suspected nuclear weapons development drive.

But Lavrov argued that Russia was not defending an ally but trying to avert a broader conflict or possible nuclear arms race from breaking out in the region.

He added that Israel's threats against Iran were only pushing other nations on poor terms with the West to consider pursuing their own nuclear weapon drives.

"This happening... around Iran are forcing a lot of Third World countries to pause and realise that if you have a nuclear bomb, no one will really bother you.

"You might get some light sanctions, but people will always coddle you, they will court you and try to convince you of things," Lavrov said.

He particularly raised the case of North Korea and its decision to both develop and test nuclear weapons -- a move that was never followed by a threat of an attack from the United States.

"But we are all behaving responsibly" toward North Korea, said Lavrov.

"We are not proposing to bomb North Korea. We are all insisting on the immediate resumption of negotiations and looking for ways to make these negotiations productive."

He also repeated arguments from some Western military analysts saying that strikes could only set back but not permanently destroy any weapons programme Iran might have today.

"Scientists of almost all nations... agree that strikes against Iran can slow its nuclear programme. But do away with it, close it, eliminate it -- never."

Lavrov's comments represented one of Russia's most impassioned arguments to date against the start of another war on its southern periphery.

Russia had previously cautioned that such a campaign could lead to a mass flood of refugees to neighbouring countries like Azerbaijan. It has also warned of the dangers of possible reprisal attack from Iran.

But Lavrov appeared ready to drop that argument on Tuesday by noting that an attack against Israel could also endanger the lives of Palestinians.

"I am absolutely convinced that Iran will never decide to do this, if only because... a threat to destroy Israel will also destroy Palestine," he said.

He also went out of his way to strongly criticise Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for repeatedly threatening to destroy the Jewish state.

"This is completely unacceptable... and we categorically condemn it," Lavrov said. "It is simply uncivilised and unworthy of a country as ancient as Iran."

'Window' closing to kick off talks with Iran: Ashton
Brussels (AFP) March 20, 2012 - EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who heads global nuclear talks with Iran, Tuesday said it was urgent to return to negotations as "the window of opportunity is closing."

Ashton, who represents six world powers seeking to convince Iran to freeze its disputed nuclear programme, insisted in a hearing with the EU parliament's foreign affairs committee that she would look for a solution when talks with Tehran finally resume.

"I am looking for a solution. I don't believe it will be done in one discussion. I do believe it can be done," she added.

On behalf of Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States, Ashton has offered to resume stalled talks with Iran but a time and venue still need to be agreed.

Western powers suspect Iran is seeking to build a nuclear bomb, a charge denied by Tehran, which says its atomic programme is for peaceful purposes.

After several failed rounds, the last in Istanbul just over a year ago, the powers agreed to resume the talks after receiving a written commitment by Iran to address the nuclear issue at the negotiations.

In Istanbul, Iran refused to address questions on its nuclear programme, demanding what diplomatic sources dubbed "pre-conditions", such as the lifting of sanctions.

But in a February 14 letter to Ashton, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili said Tehran was ready to resume the deadlocked talks as long as its right to peaceful atomic energy was respected.

"We're ready to sit down with them" on the basis of Jalili's letter, Ashton said.

"But you will also appreciate that we are talking with a purpose and it will be very, very important that it becomes clear quickly that there is a real purpose to these talks," she said.

"That for me is going to be the basis upon which we will start; with respect to Iran, but with a clarity that we want to see progress within a good reasonable time."

Jalili's letter, a long-belated response to one from Ashton in October, came as world powers moved to adopt unprecedented economic sanctions against Tehran, including an EU oil ban due to come into force on July 1.

Sanctions were ramped up in the last months after the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency said in a report it had evidence the Islamic republic appeared to be conducting research on atomic warheads.

"It's very, very important that we have sanctions that are designed to persuade Iran to come to the table," Ashton said, but added: "The purpose is not to hurt the population of Iran."

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