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NUKEWARS
Iran FM heads to New York for nuclear talks
by Staff Writers
Tehran (AFP) Sept 16, 2014


Iran nuclear talks: bridging the gaps in New York
New York (AFP) Sept 16, 2014 - Iran and six powers resume Thursday in New York negotiating a potentially historic deal to ease fears that Tehran might develop nuclear weapons after 12 years of failed diplomacy and rising tensions.

The five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (the P5+1) want Iran to scale down its nuclear activities to make any dash to make a bomb extremely difficult.

In return Tehran, which denies wanting nuclear weapons and says a peaceful atomic program is its right, wants the lifting of UN and Western sanctions causing its economy major problems.

In July negotiators gave themselves four more months, until November 24, to strike a deal, with US Secretary of State John Kerry saying this was the "best chance we've ever had to resolve this issue peacefully".

The talks in New York will be at the level of political directors but foreign ministers from Iran and the six powers -- present in New York for the UN General Assembly -- will likely also meet.

It is unclear how long the talks will last or what the outcome will be, although diplomats say that with more than two months remaining before the deadline, it is highly unlikely that this will be the final round.

Herewith a look at the main issues:

ENRICHMENT: The thorniest problem by far is uranium enrichment, a process rendering the material suitable for power generation and medical uses with centrifuge machines but also, at high purities, for a bomb.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, supreme leader, said in July that Iran wants to ramp up its enrichment capacities to industrial level. But the powers want Iran to slash them. Both sides have called for more "realism" on this point.

PROGRESS: Progress has been made in other areas. These include greater oversight for UN inspectors, on the future of Iran's existing uranium stockpile and what Kerry called a "different purpose" for Fordo, Iran's second main enrichment site under a mountain near Qom.

Another is Iran's apparent willingness to change the design of a new reactor it is building at Arak in order to ensure that it produces much less plutonium, the alternative to highly-enriched uranium for a bomb.

TIMING: Apart from enrichment there are other tricky aspects, not least the duration of the mooted accord. Washington wants Iran's nuclear activities limited for a "double-digit" number of years, Tehran considerably less.

Another difficulty is the pace at which sanctions would be lifted and how to tie the relief to certain "milestones" by Iran. The lifting of sanctions by the UN Security Council and a skeptical US Congress also presents legal difficulties.

SKELETONS IN THE CUPBOARD: Another potential stumbling block is the UN atomic watchdog's probe into the "possible military dimensions" of Iran's program -- alleged work on developing a nuclear weapon before 2003 and possibly since.

After years of rejecting these allegations out of hand, progress at last began to be made this year but Iran failed to provide information on two out of around 12 areas of suspect areas to the watchdog by an August 25 deadline.

ANOTHER EXTENSION?: Although negotiators insist the November 24 deadline is set in stone, experts have begun to speculate about yet another extension, not least because of the current turmoil in the Middle East.

"Luckily, the alternative to a comprehensive deal is not necessarily a collapse of diplomacy and a return to escalatory sanctions and centrifuge enhancements, with military action again on the horizon," said Mark Fitzpatrick from the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

"The more likely alternative, rather, is another interim deal, probably one with new conditions, such as locking in an agreement to change the design of the Arak reactor so that it produces less plutonium."

Iran's foreign minister headed to New York Tuesday to resume nuclear talks with major powers but it was unclear if there would be a repeat visit by President Hassan Rouhani, who launched Tehran's opening a year ago.

Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was to hold a working lunch with European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, the lead negotiator for the six powers, his deputy Abbas Araqchi said.

The two diplomats will set the terms for the relaunch of negotiations for a comprehensive deal on the future scope of Iran's nuclear programme to allay international concerns about its ambitions, Araqchi told state news agency IRNA.

The talks on Wednesday and Thursday will take place on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, the same venue where in September last year Rouhani held a historic telephone call with President Barack Obama, overcoming more than three decades of estrangement between the two governments.

The honeymoon period after that call saw Tehran strike an interim deal with the six powers that gave it some relief from Western economic sanctions in return for scaling back its more sensitive nuclear activities.

But Iranian officials have sounded a more pessimistic note in recent days about the prospects for hammering out a comprehensive deal by a November 24 deadline.

- 'Disagreements serious' -

"The disagreements are serious," Araqchi said of the renewed negotiations after the two sides missed an earlier, July target date for a deal.

"We hope that after the discussions that we have had with the Americans, the Russians and the Chinese, and the talks we will have on Wednesday and Thursday, we will able to make progress," he said.

Another deputy foreign minister, Majid Takht-Ravanchi, sounded a similar note of caution after talks in Geneva last Thursday with the other three powers involved in the negotiations -- Britain, France and Germany.

"After two rounds of negotiations with the European representatives, our positions have not been reconciled and disagreements over serious questions still exist," Takht-Ravanchi said on Saturday.

The six powers, all of which except Germany sit on the UN Security Council and have nuclear weapons themselves, want Iran to scale back its atomic programme to ease fears the Islamic republic gets the bomb.

Tehran, which says its nuclear programme is exclusively for power generation and medical uses, in return wants painful European Union and US sanctions lifted.

The main stumbling block remains the size of Iran's capacity to enrich uranium, a process that can make fuel for peaceful nuclear uses but also the core of an atomic bomb.

Also at issue is the timeframe for the lifting of sanctions that Western governments regard as the essential lever that brought Tehran to the negotiating table after eight years of frequently strong rhetoric from Rouhani's predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Rouhani has yet to decide whether to travel to New York for the UN General Assembly, Iranian media said.

Ahmadinejad used the annual platform to issue regular diatribes against Israel that were a major element in the international isolation of Iran that Rouhani has vowed to end.

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