As North Korea moves ahead with its plans for a father-son succession, China will maintain rock-solid ties with its erratic neighbour to ensure stability on the common border at all costs, experts say.

Beijing, Pyongyang's main ally, wants to secure its economic interests and make sure any transfer of power in the North does not spark a flood of refugees into China, while also containing growing US influence in the region, they say.

Policymakers in China would likely prefer that ailing leader Kim Jong-Il remain in place, analysts say, but safeguarding the strategic status quo on the Korean peninsula is more important than who is at the helm in Pyongyang.

"I liken the relationship to the parent with the black sheep child," Peter Beck, a Northeast Asia expert at Keio University in Tokyo, told AFP.

"No matter what bad behaviour North Korea engages in, there is this unconditional love on the part of China... they're too afraid of the consequences if things were to fall apart in North Korea."

Following last week's ruling-party conference in Pyongyang that saw Kim hand senior posts to his son and heir apparent Jong-Un, Chinese President Hu Jintao sent "warm congratulations" and pledged to boost ties with the new leadership.

Hu, who has welcomed Kim to China twice already this year, pledged to view their relations from a "long-term perspective... despite the ups and downs of the international situation" -- strong words, according to Beck.

"It was a message both to Pyongyang and to the world that the relationship with the North is unwavering," he said, adding Hu's words "dash any hopes" that the Chinese will work to rein in the North, notably on its nuclear drive.

"China is really in the driver's seat in terms of the pace of engagement with North Korea," Beck said.

Experts agree the spectre of tens of thousands of refugees entering China in the event of a power vacuum in North Korea haunts Beijing, but the geopolitical repercussions of an eventual political collapse are just as unsettling.

"If the situation in North Korea falls into chaos... a reunited peninsula led by South Korea would inevitably stand together with the United States, and this situation would be harmful to China's safety," said Cai Jian, a professor at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.

"Since the Cold War, North Korea has been China's military buffer zone."

One way that China has attempted to ward off instability in the impoverished North is to coax Pyongyang down the path of economic reform -- an initiative that has run up against the fears of the isolated state's leadership.

During his trip to China in May, Kim visited facilities in and around the ports of Dalian and Tianjin. In August, the North Korean leader inspected high-speed trains.

"They are starting to say the right things and visit the right places in China, but whether that really translates into a new policy of opening really remains to be seen," Beck said.

But Beijing's economic interests in the North also extend to its own future.

China has secured the rights to much-needed natural resources such as iron ore and coal, and signed a multi-year lease to use port facilities in Rajin on the Sea of Japan (East Sea).

"North Korea is becoming more important to China economically. China doesn't have any access to the Pacific Ocean in that area, thanks to the border with Russia," Beck said.

John Park, a senior research associate at the congressionally funded US Institute of Peace in Washington, noted that Beijing also sees bolstered cooperation with Pyongyang as a way to help its own backward frontier zone.

"By fostering sustainable stability in Northeast Asia, Beijing is seeking to facilitate sustainable economic development" in Liaoning, Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces, among the country's poorest, Park wrote in a research note.

Analysts say Beijing is likely unhappy with Kim's plans to pass the leadership baton to his son because they are not keen on the idea of political family dynasties, but will not interfere so long as the region remains secure.

"The stability on the peninsula is more important than who becomes North Korea's leader," Cai said.

China's concept of regional stability is both strategic and economic, given its increasing interdependence with Japan, the United States and South Korea.

Jing-Dong Yuan, an associate professor at the Centre for International Security Studies at the University of Sydney, put China's combined trade with the three nations at roughly 900 billion dollars.

"Any major disruption to this stability will cause serious problems for China economically, and potentially politically as well," Yuan told AFP.

"Beijing will have to weigh between its dislike of a Kim family succession and the alternatives, and make decisions accordingly."

earlier related report
Korean military meetings restart, and end
Seoul (UPI) Oct 1, 2010 - The first military talks between North Korea and South Korea in almost two years ended in a standoff, with no further meetings planned.

South Korea continued to demand an apology from North Korea for allegedly sinking one of its navy's boats and North Korea reiterated that it wasn't responsible for the incident.

Both sides said they were hoping that some accommodation regarding border incidents might be started by the talks, the first since October 2008.

Maritime disputes, in particular, have strained relations because of poorly defined territorial areas in the seas on both sides of Korean Peninsula. As a result, tensions have gradually increased between the two sides technically still at war.

No peace treaty has been signed since three years of hostilities ended with a truce in 1953. But a cease-fire line was drawn roughly along the 38th parallel that has acted as the nearly 155-mile land border.

South Korean and U.S. soldiers patrol along the south side and opposite patrolling North Korean soldiers.

North and South military heads met this week at the so-called truce village of Panmunjom in the demilitarized zone that separates the countries.

South Korea again accused North Korea of sinking of its warship, the Cheonan, in the Yellow Sea in March with the loss of 46 sailors.

An international investigation -- which North Korea didn't recognize -- said it found hard evidence that the torpedo that smashed into the Cheonan with devastating effect was a North Korean make used by only North Korea.

The Cheonan sinking, along with its stark images of the Cheonan's shattered hull being raised, marked the lowest point in diplomatic relations between the two Koreas in several years.

Western countries condemned North Korea for the action. The United Nations, while not naming North Korea, also condemned the sinking.

Even China, North Korea's erstwhile ally, intimated that it was tired of Pyongyang making denials without providing evidence to the contrary.

But there also are signs of a willingness by North Korea to build good will with the South, as well as with the West.

Pyongyang returned a detained South Korean fishing boat and its seven crew members this week. It also suggested that the two governments resume a series of reunions for families separated when the border was drawn.

For its part, Seoul has earmarked 5,000 tons of rice and other relief goods to victims of flooding in the North. South Korea's $8.5 million aid package includes 10,000 tons of cement, food such as instant noodles and also medicines.

It remains to be seen how far any thaw in relations will go, given apparent changes in leadership -- the first within a generation --- within North Korea's ruling communist party.

At a major extraordinary national conference this week, the youngest son of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il was appointed to two Workers' Party positions, seen by analysts as part of a father-to-son power transfer.

Kim Jong Un, 27, was named vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, given the rank of a four-star general and was appointed to the party's central committee.

His father, Kim Jong Il, 68, is believed to be in poor health. He was re-elected party leader during the Workers' Party's first convention in 20 years. Kim Jong Un is Kim Jong Il's third son.

U.S. officials said the significance of the promotions weren't clear.

"I would suppose this is perhaps the ultimate reality show unfolding in North Korea, and we are simply watching this very closely," U.S. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said.

The West, in general, is watching Kim Jong Un's progress, not least to be ready for an internal North Korean political squabble that might destabilize the country. Some analysts are asking whether a man not yet 30 and in his first real public political position can keep in check some of the very experienced senior politicians and, importantly, military leaders whom he will have to rely on for advice, or to placate.

A major concern continues to be Pyongyang's nuclear program. North Korea's vice minister for foreign affairs insisted this week that its nuclear weapons are for self-defense.

Pak Kil Yon told the U.N. General Assembly in New York that Pyongyang wouldn't abandon the program as long as U.S. aircraft carriers "sailed around the seas" of North Korea.