Free Newsletters - Space News - Defense Alert - Environment Report - Energy Monitor
. 24/7 Space News .




WATER WORLD
Breakthrough in El Nino forecasting
by Staff Writers
Potsdam, Germany (SPX) Jul 03, 2013


El Nino is part of a more general oscillation of the Pacific ocean-atmosphere system called ENSO, which also embraces anomalous cold episodes dubbed La Nina which can inflict severe damages as well.

In order to extend forecasting from six months to one year or even more, scientists have now proposed a novel approach based on advanced connectivity analysis applied to the climate system. The scheme builds on high-quality data of air temperatures and clearly outperforms existing methods. The study will be published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

"Enhancing the preparedness of people in the affected regions by providing more early-warning time is key to avoiding some of the worst effects of El Nino," says Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and co-author of the study by Josef Ludescher et al (Justus-Liebig Universitat Giessen).

The new approach employs network analysis which is a cutting-edge methodology at the crossroads of physics and mathematics. Data from more than 200 measurement points in the Pacific, available from the 1950s on, were crucial for studying the interactions between distant sites that cooperate in bringing about the warming.

Extending the forecasting time but also enhancing the reliability
According to Schellnhuber a new algorithm was developed and tested which does not only extend the forecasting time but also enhances the reliability.

In fact, the novel method correctly predicted the absence of an El Nino-event in the last year. This forecast was made in 2011 already, whereas conventional approaches kept on predicting a significant warming far into 2012.

El Nino is part of a more general oscillation of the Pacific ocean-atmosphere system called ENSO, which also embraces anomalous cold episodes dubbed La Nina which can inflict severe damages as well. The present study focuses on the warming events only. However, an El Nino-year is followed by a La Nina-year, as a rough rule.

Climate change: a factor for ENSO changes?
"It is still unclear to which extent global warming caused by humankind's emissions of greenhouse gases will influence the ENSO pattern," says Schellnhuber.

"Yet the latter is often counted among the so-called tipping elements in the Earth system, meaning that at some level of climate change it might experience a relatively abrupt transformation."

Certain data from the Earth's past suggest that higher mean global temperatures could increase the amplitude of the oscillation, so correct forecasting would become even more important.

Ludescher, J., Gozolchiani, A., Bogachev, M.I., Bunde, A., Havlin, S., Schellnhuber, H.J. (2013): Improved El Nino forecasting by cooperativity detection. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (early online edition) [DOI:10.1073/pnas.1309353110].

.


Related Links
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Water News - Science, Technology and Politics






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle




Memory Foam Mattress Review
Newsletters :: SpaceDaily :: SpaceWar :: TerraDaily :: Energy Daily
XML Feeds :: Space News :: Earth News :: War News :: Solar Energy News





WATER WORLD
New forecast doubles lead time for El Nino: study
Washington (AFP) July 01, 2013
A new method could double the lead time for forecasting the ocean warming trend known as El Nino and help communities better prepare for crops losses, floods and drought, German researchers said Monday. The forecasting algorithm is based on the interactions between sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and the rest of the ocean, and appears to warn of an El Nino event one year i ... read more


WATER WORLD
Metamorphosis of Moon's Water Ice Explained

Scientists use gravity, topographic data to find unmapped moon craters

Australian team maps Moon's hidden craters

LADEE Arrives at Wallops for Moon Mission

WATER WORLD
Opportunity's Improbable Anniversary

Dry run for the 2020 Mars Mission

Opportunity Clocks Up 37 Kilometers Of Roving Mars

Mars Rover Opportunity Trekking Toward More Layers

WATER WORLD
Voyager 1 Explores Final Frontier Of Our Solar Bubble

NASA's Voyager 1 approaches outer limit of solar system

PayPal launches quest for intergalactic currency

NASA Bill Would 'End Reliance on Russia,' Nix Asteroid Capture Project

WATER WORLD
China plans to launch Tiangong-2 space lab around 2015

Twilight for Tiangong

China calls for international cooperation in manned space program

Shenzhou 10 Returns Safely To Earth

WATER WORLD
Russian cosmonauts conduct space station tasks in spacewalk

Accelerating ISS Science With Upgraded Payload Operations Integration Center

Strange Flames on the ISS

Europe's space truck docks with ISS

WATER WORLD
Russian Proton M Rocket Explodes Just After Blast Off

Arianespace takes delivery of its next Ariane 5 at the Spaceport

SpaceX Will Launch Turkmenistan Satellite For Thales Alenia Space

New Mexico Space Grant Consortium student experiments blast into space from Spaceport America

WATER WORLD
Gas-Giant Exoplanets Cling Close to Their Parent Stars

Astronomers Detect Three 'Super-Earths' in Nearby Star's Habitable Zone

Three planets in habitable zone of nearby star

1 star, 3 habitable planets

WATER WORLD
Low-power Wi-Fi signal tracks movement -- even behind walls

Gartner trims global IT spending forecast for the year

China sets rare earth export quota for second half

EU approves compromise on 'shipbreaking' in South Asian countries




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2014 - Space Media Network. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement