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Airline industry profits to plummet in 2012: IATA
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) June 11, 2012


Airline industry group IATA warned on Monday global profits would more than halve this year owing to surging oil prices and the eurozone crisis, with European carriers suffering losses of $1.1 billion.

Tony Tyler, head of the International Air Transport Association, also hit out at a controversial carbon tax scheme put in place by the European Union, lashing it as a "polarising obstacle to real progress".

Tyler told the group's annual general meeting in Beijing that "2012 is another challenging year. We expect revenues of $631 billion but a profit of just $3.0 billion."

That compares with a profit of $7.9 billion in 2011, IATA figures show.

Tyler cited the cost of oil as a reason for "anaemic global profitability" and IATA said it predicted an overall average price of $110 a barrel this year using Brent crude oil as a basis, warning political risks could push this up.

Brent is currently sitting at $100 a barrel, although it is down more than $20 from multi-year peaks earlier this year.

But Tyler added: "The biggest and most immediate risk ... is the crisis in the eurozone. If it evolves into a banking crisis we could face a continent-wide recession, dragging the rest of the world and our profits down."

In a statement released as the AGM began Monday, IATA said it had downgraded its outlook for European airlines in 2012, projecting losses of $1.1 billion compared with its previous forecast of $600 million in losses.

The estimate comes despite figures showing 5.6 percent year on year growth in European passenger traffic in April and predictions global passenger numbers would rise to nearly 3 billion this year compared to 2.8 billion in 2011.

"For European carriers, the business environment is deteriorating rapidly, resulting in sizeable losses," Tyler was quoted as saying in the statement.

But he added that the global picture was "diverse", with carriers in North and Latin America expected to see improved prospects from 2011, compared with airlines in Europe, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East.

According to IATA estimates, North American carriers are likely to post profits of $1.4 billion in 2012, a slight improvement on the previous year due to strict management of airline capacity.

Carriers in the Middle East, however, are expected to see profits drop by more than half, as are those in the Asia Pacific region -- due in part to slowing Indian and Chinese economies.

Growth in China, the world's second largest economy, slowed to 8.1 percent in the first quarter of 2012 -- its slowest pace in nearly three years.

But on Monday, Li Jiaxiang -- head of China's aviation watchdog -- detailed ambitious expansion plans for his country's aviation sector, pointing for instance to the planned construction of 70 new airports by 2015.

Li also reiterated that Chinese carriers would buy an average of more than 300 planes a year from 2011 to 2015 -- the country's current five-year economic plan.

During his speech, Tyler also blasted a controversial carbon tax that the European Union is trying to impose on all airlines -- a move that has sparked a backlash from the United States, China, Russia, India and European carriers.

Airlines flying to, from or within the European Union are required to monitor CO2 emissions for entire journeys and, if necessary, pay for exceeding their carbon allowances.

The scheme is "a polarising obstacle that is preventing real progress. Our host country, China, is at the forefront of the opposition to the European ETS (Emissions Trading Scheme)", Tyler said.

Beijing has repeatedly said it opposes the EU plan and has banned its airlines from complying with the scheme.

But the EU has said the carbon tax will help it achieve its goal of cutting emissions by 20 percent by 2020 and that it will not back down, despite claims the charge violates international law.

Airline executives at the AGM complained that excess taxes and over-regulation were cutting into their bottom line and making it difficult for carriers to be profitable.

"The governments should... try to liberalise, try to cut taxes and try to encourage travel," Akbar Al Baker, chief executive of Qatar Airways, told the meeting.

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China says to build 70 new airports by 2015
Beijing (AFP) June 11, 2012 - China will build 70 new airports within the next three years, the head of the country's aviation watchdog said Monday, as part of ambitious expansion plans in the industry despite an economic slowdown.

Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) chief Li Jiaxiang also reiterated pledges that carriers would buy on average more than 300 planes a year from 2011 to 2015 -- the country's current five-year economic plan.

"China plans to build 70 new airports in the next few years and to expand 100 existing airports," he told delegates in Beijing at the annual general meeting of global airline industry group IATA.

He added that the number of airports would reach more than 230 by the end of 2015, and that Chinese carriers would operate around 4,700 planes by then.

The aggressive expansion comes after IATA head Tony Tyler warned that global airline profits would more than halve this year on the back of surging oil prices and the eurozone crisis.

The airline industry in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to turn in a $2 billion profit in 2012, according to IATA figures released on the sidelines of the AGM, but this still represents less than half of the region's 2011 profit.

The group did not provide specific projections for the China market -- which has so far experienced booming growth due to rising demand for air travel as increasingly affluent Chinese people travel more frequently.

But it said part of the reason behind the projected drop in profits in Asia-Pacific was a slowdown in the Indian and Chinese economies.

Growth in China, the world's second largest economy, slowed to 8.1 percent in the first quarter of 2012 -- its slowest pace in nearly three years.

But Ma Kai, a state councillor in charge of economic development, said at the AGM that China's aviation market had the "biggest growth potential" in the world.

"Ever since 2005, the industry has realised an annual growth rate of 17.5 percent," he said.

"We have contributed to the current development of growth in the global civil aviation industry and will continue to do so for the time to come."

Li added that by the end of 2011, China had 2,888 commercial planes in operation and its aviation industry employed 1.2 million people.



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AEROSPACE
Carbon tax and Europe to dominate airline talks
Beijing (AFP) June 8, 2012
The world's airline bosses meet from Sunday in Beijing, with talks likely to be dominated by a bitterly opposed carbon tax, the European debt crisis and the perennial headache of high oil prices. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) annual conference is likely to see airlines joining global calls for an alternative to the European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme, industry anal ... read more


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