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NUKEWARS
After rocket fiasco, N. Korea may test bomb: analysts
by Staff Writers
Hong Kong (AFP) April 13, 2012


N. Korea places troops on heightened vigilance
Seoul (AFP) April 13, 2012 - North Korea has placed troops on heightened vigilance, the South's defence minister said Friday as the failed rocket launch drew international condemnation.

"North Korean (troops) were placed on heightened vigilance," Defence Minister Kim Kwan-Jin told a parliamentary committee, according to his office, although it was not clear whether the move followed the failed launch.

Kim gave no details on the movement of North Korean troops but condemned the rocket launch as a provocation.

The minister suggested at a separate meeting with General James Thurman, head of US troops in South Korea, and US ambassador Sung Kim that the international community needs "proper sanctions", a defence ministry spokesman told AFP.

North Korea has said the rocket would place a satellite in orbit for peaceful research purposes, but Western critics saw the launch as a thinly veiled ballistic missile test, banned by United Nations resolutions.

The defence committee of South Korea's parliament adopted a resolution calling for a "firm" response to any additional provocations by North Korea.

The North should "immediately stop developing weapons of mass destruction and long-range delivery devices" that raise tensions on the Korean peninsula, the resolution said.

S. Korea says N. Korean rocket launch 'provocative'
Seoul (AFP) April 13, 2012 - South Korea on Friday condemned North Korea's rocket launch as a "provocative act", accusing the impoverished country of wasting money on developing weapons of mass destruction.

The launch "is a clear breach of the UN resolution that prohibits any launch using ballistic missile technology", Foreign Minister Kim Sung-Hwan said.

"It is a provocative act threatening peace and security on the Korean peninsula and Northeast Asia," he said.

North Korea launched a long-range rocket that appeared to have disintegrated soon after blastoff and fallen into the sea, South Korean and Japanese authorities said.

Kim said the rocket was a "de-facto" long-range missile.

"We strongly condemn North Korea's new leadership for ignoring international appeals against the launch and pushing ahead with it," he said.

"Our government... will take responsive measures through international coordination," he said after attending an emergency meeting chaired by President Lee Myung-Bak.

Kim accused the North of spending "enormous resources" on developing nuclear and missile capabilities while ignoring urgent welfare issue such as food shortages.

North Korea has said the rocket would place a satellite in orbit for peaceful research purposes, but Western critics see the launch as a thinly veiled ballistic missile test, banned by United Nations resolutions.

Kim and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke by phone and pledged to take "resolute" action after the rocket launch, a foreign ministry official told AFP, adding they agreed to refer it to the UN Security Council.

They also "shared the view that the international community should send a clear and strong message to North Korea", the official said on condition of anonymity.

The Security Council was to meet in emergency session later on Friday to decide its next step following the launch, a UN diplomat said.

The humiliating failure of North Korea's much-publicised rocket launch may push the hermit state into testing a nuclear bomb in an attempt to save face, analysts said Friday.

Touted as a glorious demonstration of North Korean technology to mark the centenary of the birth of founding leader Kim Il-Sung, the rocket turned into a damp squib when it crashed into the sea.

The 30-metre (100-foot) Unha-3 (Galaxy-3) rocket blasted off early Friday morning from a newly built space centre on the country's northwestern coast.

But shortly after launch it broke apart and the debris fell into the Yellow Sea off South Korea, the South's Yonhap news agency quoted a high-ranking military source as saying.

"North Korea executed its highly anticipated missile launch and with its failure managed to achieve the second-worst outcome imaginable. The worst would have been hitting China," Marcus Noland of the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics wrote in a blog post.

"The North Koreans have managed in a single stroke to not only defy the UN Security Council, the United States, and even their patron China, but also demonstrate ineptitude."

North Korea invited up to 200 foreign journalists to Pyongyang for the launch and the centenary commemorations on the weekend, the largest number of overseas media ever welcomed in to the reclusive state.

The humiliation of the rocket failure will be keenly felt by new leader Kim Jong-Un -- who took over after his father, Kim Jong-Il, died in December -- said Toshimitsu Shigemura, North Korea expert and professor at Waseda University in Tokyo.

"What the young leader of North Korea lacks most is legitimacy. He is the blood-related son of Kim Jong-Il and Kim Il-Sung. But he has no achievement, which was troublesome," said Shigemura.

"In order to make him legitimate, he needed a successful satellite or missile launch. But it ended in a failure."

Shigemura said North Korea would not have been able to hide the flop from its citizens because of the presence of tens of thousands of Chinese tourists and business people with mobile phones.

He said authorities are now faced with the difficult task of stemming an inevitable sense of disappointment before it becomes a threat to the regime.

"Starting today or tomorrow in Pyongyang, rumours will start that the new leader has failed to impress and is no good," he said.

"Kim Jong-un and the leadership will have to take measures to make up for that, either by providing food or building new housing. They have to do something to show real achievement."

The Washington-based Noland said a nuclear test was now all but inevitable.

"Before the launch, it was probable that North Korea would conduct a third nuclear test; now it is a virtual certainty."

Analysts say satellite imagery showing what looks like preparations, and the communist regime's previous patterns of behaviour -- with missile tests followed by bomb tests -- suggest a third nuclear test could be imminent.

Rory Medcalf, international security programme director at the Lowy Institute think-tank in Australia, said the regime's plans to test a uranium-fuelled nuclear device could be pushed forward.

"I will not say definitively that we are going to see a nuclear test or some other provocation but I think the chances are higher today than they were yesterday," he told AFP.

North Korea has said the rocket launch was a peaceful attempt to put a satellite into orbit but the United States, South Korea and Japan have condemned it as a poorly disguised ballistic missile test.

UN resolutions ban the North from testing long-range missiles that could be used to launch a satellite or a nuclear warhead.

The North is believed to have six to eight plutonium-fuelled atom bombs, and analysts say it is working on a uranium-based device. It last conducted a nuclear test in 2009.

Jingdong Yuan, acting director at the Centre for International Security Studies at the University of Sydney, said that if the country's military leaders wanted to push on with a nuclear test "they will have their way".

But the temptation will be weighed against the risk that another embarrassing failure will ruin the centennial celebrations, he said.

IHS Jane's managing director Tate Nurkin said the "biggest concern about North Korea is their weakness not their strength".

"We don't think that North Korea is seeking conflict. They are seeking attention and the concessions that come with that attention that can help prop up the regime," he said in a statement.

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NUKEWARS
US seeks low-key pressure on N.Korea
Washington (AFP) April 12, 2012
North Korea's defiant and apparently hapless rocket launch poses a challenge for world powers - how to condemn the communist state without setting off a chain reaction of new tensions. The United States and its allies had threatened action at the UN Security Council if North Korea went ahead. Yet policymakers quietly said they would seek a united but understated approach to avoid any fannin ... read more


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