As one of India's top weather forecasters, the Bangalore-based scientist has it within his power to deliver news that will either send farmers delirious with delight or drive them to despair, some even to suicide.

His recent forecast that monsoon rains on which the country's key farm sector relies would be sharply below normal during the first month sent ripples across India, where nearly 70 percent of the one-billion-plus population relies on agriculture for a living.

"It is a scientifically challenging job," the spectacled Goswami told AFP. "It involves analysing cloud pattern, behaviour, turbulence and thunderstorms spread over thousands of miles (kilometres). A study on the heating of land, sea breeze and other parameters is also done."

Goswami is one of 22 scientists at India's Center for Mathematical Modelling and Computer in this southern technology hub city, the government's second forecasting agency.

Their predictions differ from those of the New Delhi-headquartered Indian Meteorological Department, which forecast that the monsoons, which normally drench India from June until the end of September, will arrive six days late.

Goswami's team says in fact the monsoons have already arrived.

"Both of us employ differnent methodologies and so the result is different," he explained.

The Bangalore center's latest forecast of a 34 percent deficit in monsoon rainfall in June represents a sharp turnaround from its first prediction of 22 percent excess rainfall in June.

The centre, armed with rainfall data accumulated over the last 120 years, has also predicted a shortfall of 12 percent for July. But it expects "an excess of 13 percent" for August.

"There is no revision for July and August, the most crucial months for Indian agriculture," Goswami said.

Economists say a deficit monsoon would have a serious impact on the economy.

Due to a severe drought in 2002 India's economic growth took a beating in 2003 and posted below average growth of four percent. A bountiful monsoon, the best in a decade, on the other hand helped Asia's fourth largest economy to log 8.1 percent growth in the year to March, 2005.

"Despite all the investments in irrigation, 70 percent of the area cultivated is rain-fed. So monsoons are crucial," said Venkatesh Athreya, economist at the independent M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation. "Indian agriculture is still a gamble on the monsoons."

Agriculture in India contributes 20 percent to the gross domestic product and employs close to 60 percent of the country's workforce.

Athreya said a weak monsoon will pull down rural incomes and have a direct impact on the demand for manufactured goods.

Dilip Chenoy, director general of the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, agreed, saying a monsoon failure would mean a slow offtake of automobile sales.

"It is basically about the sentiment which the monsoon brings. One can always see that when the monsoon fails the automobile industry, especially the two-wheeler segment, suffers," Chenoy said. "The industry is hoping for a normal monsoon."

Chenoy said that for the manufacturing sector to grow seven percent the agricultural sector must clock a growth of four percent.

Indian Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram acknowledged last week the target of seven percent growth set for the financial year ending March 2006 depends on a successful monsoon.

Scientist Goswami said he and his colleagues are aware of the repercussions of their forecasting.

"How can you put a price to a life lost due to flooding or a drought. One can put a figure to the crop lost but not to a life. In 2004 there was a severe deficit and people suffered. We are very much aware of all that," he said.

Goswami said India had four monsoons.

"The main one is the agricultural monsoon which determines the prospects of farming. But the hydrological monsoon is equally important as we get requests from all states about whether to hold on to water stored in dams or to release it," he said. "This has a big impact on the power sector.

"The cultural monsoon is one resulting from an upbeat mood among the people due to a good harvest followed by festivals. If the economy booms the politicians claim it is because of them. That is the political monsoon."

For Manoj Kakaiya, a dealer with brokerage firm ULJK Securities, the monsoon rings in either fortunes or losses.

"The stock markets closely watch the monsoon pattern as it has a direct impact on the behaviour of scrips -- mainly automobile, cement, steel and infrastructure," Kakaiya said.

"It can mean a huge fortune or a big loss to stockholders," he said.

All rights reserved. � 2004 Agence France-Presse. Sections of the information displayed on this page (dispatches, photographs, logos) are protected by intellectual property rights owned by Agence France-Presse. As a consequence, you may not copy, reproduce, modify, transmit, publish, display or in any way commercially exploit any of the content of this section without the prior written consent of Agence France-Presse.

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